Welcome to Week 7 Matchups That Matter.
This article gives you a peek into the process behind our weekly projections and rankings. Below are the key metrics we use to set those numbers, so you can make sharper start/seat calls each week.
When you’re ready to set your lineup, hit the Week 7 Rankings and your Team Dashboard page for customized starting/seating advice.
Good luck in Week 7!
Maximum Game Total
1. Packers at Lions (53.5)
2. Patriots and Bears (50.5)
3. 49ers at Falcons (49.5)
t-4. Bengals at Ravens (48.5)
t-4. Rams at Raiders (48.5)
Minimum Game Total
11. Chiefs at Seahawks (42.5)
12. Colts and Vikings (41.5)
13. Dolphins and Jets (39.5)
14. Browns at Titans (37.5)
Expected points
We can use the Vegas lines to calculate how many points each team is expected to score this week.
Maximum Expected Score
1. Lions (28.25)
2. Texans (27.0)
3. Bears (26.75)
4. Rams (26.5)
5. 49ers (26.0)
Minimum Expected Score
t-23. Browns (19.5)
t-23. Cardinals (19.5)
25. Titans (18.0)
26. Colts (17.5)
27. Dolphins (17.25)
28. Giants (16.5)
Expected Plays
The chart below shows how many plays we project each team will run compared to the league average for the week. More plays = more opportunities for fantasy points.
Most Anticipated Plays
1. Lions (64.6)
2. Bears (64.1)
3. Rams (63.8)
4. Panthers (63.5)
5. Packers (63.4)
Least Expected Play
23. Eagles (61.0)
24. Jets (60.8)
25. Colts (60.4)
26. Giants (60.2)
27. Dolphins (59.5)
28. Titans (58.6)
Pace Matchups
The chart below shows how each game stacks up in terms of pace compared to the league average for the week. Speed is calculated by averaging the seconds per snap from both teams in each game. Faster games usually produce more plays, which means more fantasy points.
Fastest Game (Average seconds per snap)
1. Cowboys and Eagles (27.25 seconds)
2. Packers at Lions (27.5 seconds)
3. Steelers vs. Saints (27.6 seconds)
4. Rams and Raiders (27.85 seconds)
Slowest Games (Average seconds per snap)
t-11. Bengals at Ravens (30.25 seconds)
t-11. 49ers at Falcons (30.25 seconds)
13. Dolphins in the Jets (30.5 seconds)
14. Colts at Vikings (31.0 seconds)
Time Concerns
Back on Sunday morning.
quarterback
Pass Defense Power Rankings
Here’s a look at how each team fared in pass defense DVOA, Pro Football Focus coverage grade, PFF pass rush grade, and EPA allowed per pass through 6 weeks. Teams are ranked by “Pass Defense Power,” which is the average of those 4 metrics.
Week 7 Passing Matchups
This chart plots each team’s Pass Offense Power versus their opponent’s Pass Defense Power. The teams in the lower right quadrant are in the smash spot.
Matchup Upgrades and Downgrades Adjusted-Fantasy-Points Upgrades and Downgrades
The best and worst Week 7 matchups according to our 2026 adjusted fantasy points allowed.
5 Best QB Matchups
1. Jordan Love and Lions (+53.8%)
2. Bo Nix to the Cardinals (+27.7%)
3. Tanner McKee vs. Cowboys (+22.8%)
4. CJ Stroud vs. Giants (+21.8%)
5. Matthew Stafford on Raiders (+20.7%)
5 Worst QB Matchups
24. Bryce Young vs. Buccaneers (-17.1%)
25. Tyler Shough vs. Steelers (-20.7%)
26. Caleb Williams vs. Patriots (-27.8%)
27. Patrick Mahomes and Seahawks (-37.3%)
28. Daniel Jones on Vikings (-50.7%)
Running Back
Run the Defense Power Rankings
Here’s a look at how each team fared in run defense DVOA, Pro Football Focus run defense grade, and EPA allowed per rush through 6 weeks. Teams are ranked by “Run Defense Power,” which is an average of those 3 metrics.
Week 7 Rushing Matchups
This chart depicts each team’s Run Offense Power compared to their opponent’s Run Defense Power. The teams in the lower right quadrant are in the smash spot.
Matchup Upgrades and Downgrades Adjusted-Fantasy-Points Upgrades and Downgrades
The best and worst Week 7 matchups according to our 2026 adjusted fantasy points allowed.
5 Best RB Matchups
1. Eagles vs. Cowboys (+28.6%)
2. Steelers vs. Saints (+26.3%)
3. Jets vs. Dolphins (+21.9%)
4. Lions vs. Packers (+19.0%)
5. Falcons vs. 49ers (+18.4%)
5 Worst RB Matchups
24. Bengals and Ravens (-12.8%)
25. Patriots and Bears (-14.4%)
26. Broncos at Cardinals (-18.5%)
27. Titans vs. Browns (-27.6%)
28. Colts and Vikings (-34.3%)
Wide Receiver
Matchup Upgrades and Downgrades Adjusted-Fantasy-Points Upgrades and Downgrades
The best and worst Week 7 matchups according to our 2026 adjusted fantasy points allowed.
5 Best WR Matchups
1. Packers and Lions (+33.5%)
2. Giants at Texans (+21.8%)
3. Rams and Raiders (+16.8%)
4. Browns and Titans (+16.4%)
5. Steelers and Saints (+10.7%)
5 Worst WR Matchups
24. Cardinals vs. Broncos (-15.0%)
25. Seahawks vs. Chiefs (-16.1%)
26. Colts and Vikings (-19.7%)
27. Seahawks leaders (-24.1%)
28. Jets vs. Dolphins (-26.4%)
WR/CB Matchup Upgrade
Packers WRs Christian Watson and Matthew Golden vs. Lions CBs DJ Reed, Ennis Rakestraw, and Roger McCreary
Panthers WRs Tetairoa McMillan and Jalen Coker vs. Buccaneers CBs Zyon McCollum, Benjamin Morrison, and Keionte Scott
Jets WRs Garrett Wilson and Omar Cooper vs. Dolphins CBs Julius Brents, Jason Marshall, and Chris Johnson
Patriots WR AJ Brown vs. Bears CBs Jaylon Johnson and Malik Muhammad
Steelers WRs DK Metcalf and Germie Bernard vs. Saints CBs Kool-Aid McKinstry, Quincy Riley, and Jonas Sanker
Broncos WRs Jaylen Waddle and Courtland Sutton vs. Cardinals CBs Max Melton, Denzel Burke, and Garrett Williams
Eagles WR Makai Lemon vs. Cowboys CB Reddy Steward
WR/CB Matchup Downgrades
Cowboys WRs CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens against Eagles CBs Quinyon Mitchell and Riq Woolen
Chiefs WR Xavier Worthy vs. Seahawks CBs Devon Witherspoon, Josh Jobe, and Nehemiah Pritchett
Colts WRs Josh Downs and Keenan Allen vs. Vikings CBs Byron Murphy, Isaiah Rodgers, and James Pierre
Tight End
Matchup Upgrades and Downgrades Adjusted-Fantasy-Points Upgrades and Downgrades
The best and worst Week 7 matchups according to our 2026 adjusted fantasy points allowed.
5 Best TE Matchups
1. Packers at Lions (+116.5%)
2. Seahawks vs. Chiefs (+70.1%)
3. Rams and Raiders (+49.2%)
4. Ravens vs. Bengals (+45.7%)
5. Buccaneers at Panthers (+42.1%)
5 Worst TE Matchups
24. Colts and Vikings (-33.7%)
25. Browns and Titans (-34.5%)
26. Seahawks leaders (-37.1%)
27. Bears vs. Patriots (-37.7%)
28. Raiders vs. Rams (-51.2%)
Defense/Special Teams
Matchup Upgrades and Downgrades Adjusted-Fantasy-Points Upgrades and Downgrades
The best and worst Week 7 matchups according to our 2026 adjusted fantasy points allowed.
5 Best DST Matchups
1. Texans vs. Giants (+133.4%)
2. Browns and Titans (+66.7%)
3. Seahawks leaders (+64.5%)
4. 49ers at Falcons (+61.6%)
5. Panthers vs. Buccaneers (+50.6%)
5 Worst DST Matchups
24. Eagles vs. Cowboys (-41.7%)
25. Buccaneers at Panthers (-47.0%)
26. Seahawks vs. Chiefs (-56.5%)
27. Falcons vs. 49ers (-73.8%)
28. Packers and Lions (-80.1%)
Kicker
Matchup Upgrades and Downgrades Adjusted-Fantasy-Points Upgrades and Downgrades
The best and worst Week 7 matchups according to our 2026 adjusted fantasy points allowed.
5 Best K Matchups
1. Ryan Fitzgerald vs. Buccaneers (+48.0%)
2. Daniel Carlson vs. Steelers (+43.5%)
3. Will Reichard vs. Colts (+38.0%)
4. Matt Gay vs. Rams (+33.9%)
5. Nick Folk vs. 49ers (+30.6%)
5 Worst K Matchups
24. Ka’imi Fairbairn vs. Giants (-18.6%)
25. Cairo Santos vs. Patriots (-26.1%)
26. Trey Smack and Lions (-45.2%)
27. Andres Borregales and Bears (-47.3%)
28. Jake Bates vs. Packers (-57.7%)