Kyler Murray’s first pass as a member of the Minnesota Vikings was a hail mary thrown under pressure to a double-covered Jauan Jennings. No wonder it got blocked. That was on second-down less than a minute into the first quarter of a 0-0 game. A few offensive plays later, he was knocked out in a scramble that caused him to miss the rest of that game and the next.
Those two plays encapsulated most of Kyler Murray’s trials and tribulations during his seven years in Arizona: hero ball and injuries. The hero ball was ingrained to some degree in the Air Raid scheme Murray ran in college and in his early years at Arizona, but also to some degree by necessity — playing for a team that often lacked defensive ability and was forced to come back from deficits or win shootouts. Injuries have occurred in Murray’s scrambles, although they are usually non-contact injuries.
A More Conservative Kyler Murray
But you can guess, based on Murray’s one week performance, the strengths of this 2026 Vikings team and Murray’s subsequent performance, that there was a conversation between Vikings head coach Kevin O’Connell and Murray before he returned that might have gone something like this:
KOC: Kyler, now that you’re back on the field, let me remind you of a few things. First, since I’ve been the head coach, we’ve won at least 13 games in seasons when we’ve had a healthy starting quarterback. And we win 90% of the games when we tie or win the turnover battle.
Kyler: Okay, I understand where you’re going.
KOC: Good. We don’t need you to play hero ball. Just take what the defense gives you. Scrambling is okay when nobody is available, but we don’t want to make that a big part of the offense. Working out of pocket and being on schedule is what we crave. But when you’re scrambling, avoid sticking and sliding. We don’t want to risk hurting you trying to gain an extra yard or two. Throwaways are also fine when not there.
KOC: Don’t forget, you have a defense you can lean on here- I know that’s something you haven’t experienced much in the past.
Kyler: thanks Coach- it makes my job so much easier.
Since Murray returned after a week, he became more conservative. He’s been more careful with the football- no turnover-worthy plays according to PFF- and smarter with his scrambling- avoiding contact and sliding the few times he scrambles. He had fallen through a tight window several times but thought it through.
That’s not to say he avoided all tight window throws or didn’t get some shots downfield- he did- but it was in the context of taking what the defense gave him instead of forcing a throw into double coverage.
However, there were a few instances where the rhythm or timing was a bit off, causing Murray to miss a throwing window or the throw was off the mark. Murray also showed some rust, especially in his first full game against the Bucs, when his accuracy (adjusted completion percentage) was just 66.7% – below his career average- and his average time to throw was 3.35 seconds- above his career average.
But in the Dolphins game, Murray’s average throw time dropped to 3.07 seconds- still above his career average but an improvement over last week. And his accuracy jumped to 90.6%, even with a shorter target depth, as the Dolphins focused on moving deeper down the field with their coverage — perhaps after seeing Murray’s deep shots on Jordan Addison last week. Murray also seemed to get into a bit of a rhythm late in the Dolphins game, developing a rapport with TJ Hockenson that should serve him well down the line.
Murray ranks 5th in adjusted completion percentage and 4th in turnover-worthy play rate on the season.
However, the Vikings offense is hardly hitting on all cylinders after four games, as it still ranks near the bottom of the league in most key metrics.
Outlook for the Vikings Offense
One month into the season, Kyler Murray and Justin Jefferson have been on the field together for just 17 plays. It’s clear that having Carson Wentz play two games at quarterback while Justin Jefferson missed all but one drive of Kyler Murray’s last two starts has had an impact on the Vikings’ offense. Not to mention Jordan Mason has been out for the last three games. All of these injuries made almost everything more difficult for the offense and it showed. Additionally, Murray’s acclimation process was delayed by the two games he missed.
But going forward, there is reason for optimism and improvement.
Justin Jefferson returns. Jefferson’s return, which could be as early as Sunday, is important not only because of his production, but because his presence makes the rest of the Vikings offense more difficult to defend.
Return of Jordan Mason. Mason will return after the bye-week and is the Vikings’ best returner. He will also take the load off Aaron Jones, who has done reasonably well in Mason’s absence but Mason’s return will improve the Vikings’ ground game.
Kyler Murray continues to fit the Vikings’ offense. It’s only been two games, but we’re starting to see Kyler Murray getting more comfortable and acclimated to the Vikings offense and developing a rapport with his receivers, most recently TJ Hockenson. We’ve only seen a few passes from Murray to Jefferson, but Murray started his rapport with Jefferson in training camp so that could be more than enough despite the lack of playing time together. His relationship with Addison is still non-existent, despite some important admissions. There are some other times where the opportunity was there but the time was off. More reps will help across the board. It’s still too early.
Next Enemies Lack Strong Defense. The Vikings’ offense will have a chance to gel against opponents over the next four games that rank at the bottom in terms of pass defense DVOA, which helps. The Saints, Colts, Lions, and Bills are in the mid-20s in pass defense DVOA. The Saints, Colts, and Lions are also in the bottom six in run defense DVOA. The Bills are ranked 17th.
Losing Josh Oliver and now Donovan Jackson for the season is significant, but Joe Huber looks like he can fill in without a huge drop in production. It looks like the Vikings could replace Oliver in part with an extra lineman (Caleb Tiernan) but Gavin Bartholomew and Max Bredeson could also see more snaps.
Jauan Jennings doesn’t look good right now. Before the season started, the acquisition of Jauan Jennings seemed like a perfect fit for what the Vikings wanted to do offensively. He became a big, tough receiver for the 49ers who could block, move the chains catching underneath passes and make contested catches in the end zone. He hasn’t done anything yet. Part of the problem is that Kevin O’Connell is running him a different set of routes that he’s not good at. Jennings is not an athletic receiver or a well detailed route runner. He’s more of a tight end in that regard. He can run shallow crossers, slants, stops, and flat routes and make contested catches at his size. But he’s running routes downfield now and not getting separation- as expected. To make matters worse, he is the lowest graded run blocker on the team so far this season according to PFF. At this point, Tai Felton or Myles Price look like better WR3 options. Price has the third-best run blocking grade on the team, even in just 15 reps. Maybe Jennings can be saved, or maybe he will be traded, but there is an opportunity for improvement at WR3 that could help the offense move forward.
It’s been a slow start for the Vikings offense for the various reasons discussed, but it’s reasonable to expect gradual improvement for the Vikings offense in the coming weeks as several key players return and Kyler Murray continues to become more acclimated and comfortable running the offense. It takes time to develop a rapport with the receivers and get the rhythm and timing down and that will be an ongoing process the rest of the season. There will also be an ongoing effort to learn what works best in this edition of O’Connell’s offense. Hopefully that will include more of the innovative run play designs we’ve come to expect from Frank Smith because of what he did in Miami as OC under Mike McDaniel.
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