Thursday night’s primetime meeting between the Jacksonville Jaguars and Baltimore Ravens will be without Lamar Jackson, who is scheduled to undergo thumb surgery. Which makes things more interesting than usual. Keep reading for odds, picks, and player props for this showdown. Also, make sure you head over to our Week 9 NFL Betting Hub to check out all of our NFL betting content.
MORE: Head to the Pro Picks page for the best bets from all our VSiN hosts and analysts!
How to Watch Jaguars vs. Ravens
when: Thursday, November 5 at 8:20 pm ET
where: M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore, Maryland
Channels: Prime Video
Jaguars vs. Ravens Odds
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook are accurate as of Tuesday, November 3. Look around for the best prices!
moneyline: Jaguars -470, Ravens +360
Spread: Jaguars -9.5 (-108), Ravens +9.5 (-112)
Total: Over 41.5 (-112), Under 41.5 (-108)
Analysis of Jaguars vs. Ravens
Our betting breakdown pages are unlikely to surprise anyone this week. At the time of publishing (12:30 pm ET on Tuesday, November 3), 83% of DraftKings tickets are in Jacksonville, and there is also a small majority of Jaguars tickets at Circa Sports. Casual bettors seem to have no interest in backing the Ravens’ new quarterback room. With Jackson and Tyler Huntley both dealing with injuries, that room now consists of Joe Fagnano, Kedon Slovis, and Austin Reed. That group is more random than Peter Klaven’s groomsmen in “I Love You, Man.”
It goes without saying that Baltimore’s passing game won’t be explosive this week. However, it feels like a mistake to complete the Ravens write-off. Baltimore still has Derrick Henry to lean on. The 32-year-old has lost a bit of pop, but he’s still physically fit enough to handle it. The Ravens could look to ride the veteran, hoping to get a win in a low-scoring game. Doing so against Jacksonville will be easier this week than most, as the team is missing DaVon Hamilton and has Travon Walker dealing with a rib injury.
Of course, Baltimore will need to be good defensively to win a throwback-style game. The Ravens are just a middle-of-the-pack defensive team this season, 16th in Dropback EPA/Play Allowed (0.077) and 22nd in Rush EPA/Play Allowed (-0.078). That said, this wasn’t Baltimore’s defense in the first place. But it should be noted that Trevor Lawrence, like most quarterbacks, isn’t as sharp when playing on the road.
The Jaguars offense also benefits greatly from a defense that creates a ton of turnovers, which puts Lawrence and Co. of good field position. That said, if Baltimore’s offense can avoid giving the ball away, the defense should have a better shot at slowing down Liam Coen’s offense.
It’s also worth mentioning that the Ravens still have plenty of offensive talent. They’ll give Henry every chance to win this game on the ground, but they’ll still have weapons like Zay Flowers and Mark Andrews to use when they drop to pass. Declan Doyle has also proven to be a strong play caller, so there’s a chance he’ll put together a solid game plan — even if everything is working against him.
I just don’t think Baltimore should be getting more than one touchdown at home. This team still has a lot to play for, and it’s always tough for the visitors to win night games at M&T Bank Stadium.
Jaguars vs. Ravens Player Props
LEAN: Henry Over 17.5 Rushing Attempts (-127)
As always, I suggest checking out our OptaAI player prop projection. While I’m not playing any player props in this one, we have VSiN Pro subscribers covered in hundreds of Week 9 NFL player prop projections, and that includes a bunch for this Thursday Night Football matchup. However, if I had to play something, I’d play Over Henry’s rushing attempts. It’s been three games since Henry’s last 18-carry performance, but we should see some real promise to lure him here. This is Baltimore’s only path to success.
Jaguars vs. Ravens Pick
If you look around, you should be able to find some good prices to get the 10 or 10.5 in Baltimore. That’s exactly what I’m doing with this one, and I’m also putting a quarter-unit on the moneyline at +410. The NFL is a strange league. When something seems obvious, we usually see the opposite happening. Also, good teams find ways to overcome short-term struggles, and I think the Ravens can do that. So, while I’m not expecting a masterpiece from Baltimore’s offense, I think the Ravens can avoid embarrassment.
Bet: Ravens +10.5 (-127) and Ravens ML (+410 – 0.25 units)