Houston fans are still waiting for the first win at NRG Stadium this season, and the Houston Texans finally drew a home opponent that looks friendly on paper. JJ McCarthy makes his first start for a Giants team listed as a 10.5-point underdog at DraftKings, per ESPN, which is exactly why the trap game talk around this one exists.
New York is 3-2-1 and sits atop the NFC East. The Giants have also beaten Houston five straight times since losing the first meeting in 2002.
Here’s what should worry the Texans before Sunday’s noon kickoff.
Malik Nabers has topped 100 yards three weeks running
Nabers is the reason New York’s offense has survived a quarterback carousel. He has 29 catches for 398 yards over his past three games, including 12 for 165 against the Saints, and his 41 receptions rank fourth among receivers. PFF grades him at 81.7 overall, 13th among 81 qualifying wideouts.
That production runs into a thin Texans secondary. Safeties Reed Blankenship and Jalen Pitre are both out, per the injury report, so there’s less help over the top for Derek Stingley Jr. PFF has Stingley allowing 16.1 yards per reception (91st of 102 corners) and a 101.8 passer rating in coverage.
Abdul Carter ranks third among PFF edge rushers
Carter is the name Houston’s offensive line should circle. The second-year edge rusher owns an 87.9 overall PFF grade, third among 115 edge defenders, with an 86.1 pass-rush grade and 21 pressures. His two sacks undersell how often he’s been in the backfield.
Tackle Blake Fisher (thumb) is out. Aireontae Ersery gets a rematch of a 2024 college matchup with Carter, and he has been volatile in pass protection through six games. CJ Stroud has been sacked 14 times.
Isaiah Likely leads the Giants with five touchdown catches
Likely followed John Harbaugh from Baltimore and has become the Giants’ scoring answer. The tight end has 39 catches for 383 yards and five touchdowns, and he’s warming up with 17 catches for 193 yards and three scores over the last two games. He caught six passes for 99 yards against New Orleans.
The Texans’ own team site flagged tight ends and the middle of the field as a soft spot for Houston’s defense. With tight end Theo Johnson (neck) out, Likely should see even more targets, and linebackers Azeez Al-Shaair and Henry To’oTo’o will carry more of that coverage load.
JJ McCarthy’s legs reopen part of the Giants’ playbook
Offensive coordinator Matt Nagy said McCarthy’s skill set “is very similar to Jaxson Dart,” per ESPN, and the Giants can restore 20% to 30% of a playbook trimmed when Dart went on injured reserve.
Houston’s run defense allows just 83.0 yards per game, third in the league, and Will Anderson Jr. carries a 90.8 PFF run-defense grade, second among edge defenders. The catch is discipline. Anderson and Danielle Hunter have to keep McCarthy in the pocket, where his career 9.2% sack rate favors the Texans.
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