🏈 Can the dogs do it one more time?
The underdogs cover the machines in Week 4.
they are 9-4-2 ATS with six wins on to Monday Night Football.
The market indicates Falcons (+2) vs. Saints have a chance to be 10 tonight (8:15 pm ET, ESPN).
Atlanta opened +3 at Circa and dropped to +2 Sunday night, with 75% of the handle on the Falcons.
Steve Makinen isn’t convinced the line has caught up with what we saw from Atlanta last week:
“I’m not sure anyone who watched Thursday’s game, where Atlanta went to Green Bay and won 35-14, didn’t look at the Falcons as a completely different team with QB Michael Penix under center. Funny though, I don’t think this week’s lineup reflects Atlanta’s ‘new’ team as much as it should.”
Zach Cohen acknowledges the boost Penix has provided, but he’s focused on the other side of the ball.
“Atlanta’s rushing defense is huge in this particular matchup. The Saints have been great on the ground to start this year, but they’re up against a tough defensive front. They’ll also have to attack it without Travis Etienne, who is their RB1.”
>> Zach’s Falcons-Saints Best Bets
>> Steve’s MNF Review and Play
>> View the Latest Circa Betting Splits
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🎯 VSiN Pro Picks (15 plays so far) →
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🔥 Joe Did It Again
We have highlighted the VSiN Community member Joe Freda’s Giants +2.5 play Sunday.
He doesn’t need the points. The Giants won, 36-24.
It was 2-0 for Joe’s weekend after his call to Arizona on Saturday.
🤕 More QBs Fall in Week 4
Commanders: Backup QB Marcus Mariota suffered a right knee injury early in a 30-13 loss to the Colts in London. Washington hopes to have starter Jayden Daniels back for its Week 5 matchup against the Giants (+3).
Ravens: Lamar Jackson suffered an ankle injury in the first half of a 24-18 win over the Titans. Nothing was said Sunday night on the severity.
Sunday’s results and injuries have already influenced the Week 5 line.
>> Adam Burke breaks down the Week 1 5 Line
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💰 Contest Update: No Survivor Mayhem
☠️ The Big Favorite Live
The Vikings (43.4%) and Ravens (38.9%) both came for their backers at Circa Survivor.
Of the 303 entries removed so far in Week 4, 5,965 heading into Week 5 — with 16 pending on the Saints tonight and seven on the Falcons.
>> Check out the Circa Survivor Hub
💵 Better than 24
All 24 live entries survived Week 4.
>> See About Grandissimo Hub
📋 Circa Million Consensus: 9-10-1
The five most-picked Week 4 sides have landed 3-2. Rams -3, 49ers -2.5 and Bears -3 wins; Bills lost -6.5 and Bengals -2.5. The consensus is now 9-10-1 for the season.
🏆 Ed Salmons led the Invitational
Former Westgate oddsmaker Ed Salmons leads 18-10but Jeff Petch could move into a tie if the Falcons +2 cover tonight.
>> Check the Invitational Standings
👥 Average Joe Leader: 23-4-1
DaSoxFan24 went 6-1 in Week 4 to take the EdgeBoost Average Joe to 23-4-1.
There is a little more urgency: The winner after five weeks gets a trip to Las Vegas and a two-night stay at Circa.
>> Check out DaSoxFan24’s Picks
>> Check the Average Joe Leaderboard
🛒 Want to Participate in a Circa Contest?
The Survivor Sweat Marketplace has reopened with over 100 Circa contest entries for sale — and more to come.
If you’d like to enter one of Circa’s contests today, check out the Official Circa Sports Contest Entry Marketplace.
>> Browse the Survivor Sweat Marketplace
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⚾ It’s the AL’s Turn
The Braves and Brewers bought themselves something valuable Sunday: Time.
Atlanta’s win provides their bullpen today before a fully rested Chris Sale starts in Game 3. Milwaukee’s return gives the Brewers a 2-0 lead and a day to reset their high-leverage weapons after another rough outing from Abner Uribe.
Today, both AL series are working again.
5 pm ET — White Sox (+138) at Guardians (-148)
Anthony Kay vs. Gavin Williams | Total: 6.5
In the mind of Adam Burke Chicago has the underdog value again at +138. Starting Kay gives the White Sox a chance to get through Cleveland’s lineup one more time before turning to Sean Burke, potentially forcing the Guardians to clear their bench to get the platoon matchups they want.
Adam also has concerns about Williams home sensitivity and pitch efficiencyespecially if Cleveland has to step into its middle relievers.
8 pm ET — Yankees (-122) at Rays (+112)
Cam Schlittler vs. Freddy Peralta | Total: 6.5
Adam’s biggest concern with Peralta is the Yankees’ left-hander. He allowed it 17 home runs and a .439 slugging percentage among lefties this season.
But there is an important counterpoint: In his last six regular-season starts, lefties hit just .164/.253/.224 against him while Peralta leaned heavily on his replacement.
>> Adam Burke’s Monday MLB Best Bets (later this morning)
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🏈 Adam has found 7 Week 6 Differences
Adam Burke updated his college football power ratings and found seven Week 6 games where his projected line was different enough from the market to indicate potential value.
>> See Adam’s 7 Week 6 Line Differences
He also monitors the early betting market to determine the Week 6 line moves worth paying attention to.
>> Check out the Week 6 Line Moves Adam is Watching
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📈 Before You Go: Track the Market with DonBest
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