Fantasy football is all about the box score: Yards and TDs equal fantasy points, and fantasy points win your league.
But not all 5-100-1s are built the same. That’s why we use advanced analytics and film to identify talented players on the verge of delivering numbers.
Each week, I’ll bring my 22 years of experience analyzing college and NFL film to highlight when the box score doesn’t match reality, showing some players who performed better or worse than their stats.
Bucky Irving, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Bucky Irving
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Irving has finished as a top-three PPR RB in two of the last three weeks, once with Jalon Daniels at QB and last week with Baker Mayfield.
Those fantasy finishes indicate a young RB who could rise to the top tier of fantasy (and NFL) RBs. I wasn’t there after reviewing the film, but Irving looks much better than last year.
That gives me hope for his consistency in the future.
A pulling guard leads it to seal the edge on the right side of the line. Irving saw an inside lane closing in, so he moved into the spot the guard had created.
Irving rushes the open field, tight-arming CB Will Lee. Lee stays and brings him down, but burst and vision allow for a 15-yard gain.
Irving’s best runs came outside the zone. The Buccaneers O-line seems to thrive on opening gaps and sealing the edge. That’s a dangerous combination with Irving’s cutting ability.
This play shows how Irving continues to use his eyes to manipulate defenders.
The O-line pulls left but allows LB Devin Lloyd to go over the middle with little resistance. Irving adjusted to a cutback on the right side.
He takes the perfect angle on the O-line to keep CB Akayleb Evans as far away as possible. Evans made contact right at the goal line but was too late to stop Irving from scoring.
This run was likely halted due to losing Irving’s first two seasons. He usually falls a step behind in his cutback lanes. Sometimes that didn’t affect the outcome, but it did lead to some stops when the O-line didn’t hold up.
Irving’s vision and decision-making appear to be sharper this year, leading to immediate recognition of what lines are filling and how to adjust.
Again, Irving turns the blocking average into a positive gain. The defense collapses inside so Irving smoothly transitions to the outside. He broke an arm tackle while cutting upfield to avoid Evans.
The corner wraps up Irving but after a first down.
Overall, Irving has improved his body control, vision, and instincts. He reads the defense effortlessly and makes smart decisions on almost every play.
Despite the positives, I don’t think we’ll ever see Irving become a consistent top-10 RB.
I worry about Irving’s lack of ability to break the tackle. In the first clip, for example, his stiff arm is used against him to knock him down. He also gets wrapped up by CB in the third clip despite being a step ahead.
Irving’s picks have been successful on those runs, but top 10 RBs like James Cook or Kyren Williams tend to break those tackles.
I think Irving remains a solid RB2 for the rest of the season (and possibly the next few seasons) that could certainly provide a spike week. But his lack of size and ability to break tackles will be limitations.
Michael Wilson, WR, Arizona Cardinals
Michael Wilson
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Wilson’s fantasy season has been volatile so far. He finished as WR31 and WR81 in the first two weeks before things started. He combined for 30 targets in Weeks 3 and 4, finishing as WR4 and WR16.
The Cardinals then traded Marvin Harrison Jr.
That didn’t help Wilson’s fantasy numbers. He finished as WR50, WR49, and WR22 over the past three weeks.
I’ve noticed a consistent problem in many of Wilson’s games this season. He really struggled with physical contact in the early part of his route, leading him to slow down and at times stumble and even stumble.
This often affects timing on passes, and it came up again this past week. That might help explain his lack of production.
Wilson runs a deep return route just shy of the end zone on this play. He made contact with the CB in the cut and fell to the ground.
Jacoby Brissett fired the pass that way as he was hit, but it was knocked down as Wilson tried to get up on the ground.
This stumbling issue came up multiple times in Week 7. Later in the game, Wilson even dropped while waiting for contact that never happened.
Wilson moves and explodes on the snap, expecting contact from the CB a few yards down the field. That prospect causes another stumbling block in engagement.
Wilson regained his balance and positioning, allowing him to catch before being hit by the safety.
But it shows a strange trend: Wilson loses his footing when becoming physical or even just anticipating contact.
If Wilson continues to struggle to stay on his feet, defenses can adjust and try to force him out of the timing of his route.
Wilson stays on his feet by making contact on this play, though he is still forced to make a contested catch with little separation.
The Cardinals used motion again, moving Wilson to the slot. He took off and was jammed a few yards after the line of scrimmage. Wilson struggles to get away from CB Ja’Quan McMillan to get separation.
The pass from Jacoby Brissett was also difficult, not leading Wilson. McMillan has strong positioning, but Wilson jumps up and makes a well-contested corner shoulder grab.
Wilson has shown strong catching ability, a positive trait the Cardinals continue to utilize.
The stumbling and balance problems worry me if he doesn’t correct them. I will keep an eye out for any such improvement.
Outside of the stumble, Wilson looks to be a solid NFL contributor with great hands and tackling ability. He doesn’t create a ton of separation and isn’t a dynamic route runner, however, which could limit his career ceiling.
Should be a solid No. 2 WR instead of the de facto No. 1 for the Cardinals. I’d be surprised if the team doesn’t try to upgrade in the next year or two to find the true star they hope Harrison is.
That would put Wilson in a better position to perform, though it would likely cut into his targets. His 9.4 per game this season ranks ninth in the league.
Caleb Douglas, WR, Miami Dolphins
Douglas returned from a right ankle injury to start against the Jets. He caught 2 of 3 targets for 70 yards and 2 TDs.
The box score is exciting if you have Douglas on your fantasy team, but I don’t expect this production to hold up.
Douglas showed some positives on film but had a mediocre game overall scoring a long TD.
Douglas is wide open on this route out due to a CB blitz. Malik Willis immediately identified the blitz and threw the ball to Douglas.
The rookie shows savvy after the catch, staying balanced (and in bounds) on the sideline before zooming down the field for a TD.
This was a great play for the Dolphins offense, and Douglas did well after the catch to stay upright and make it a real big play. But this long TD doesn’t show outstanding route running or advanced WR skills.
Douglas struggled to get separation throughout the game. Press coverage often keeps him out too long to be a viable target. This play is a prime example.
Douglas tried to shake the CB, but the physical contact immediately negated his explosiveness and agility.
That leaves Douglas with no separation when he completes his route, and he misses the target even though he’s the first read.
Douglas’ best game came with his other TD.
No wonder this TD ran into off coverage. Douglas clears the line cleanly and then shakes the defender with a stuttering step.
That allows Douglas to get in without contact, winning leverage against the CB. That creates an easy opening for a Willis TD pass.
The results were certainly positive for a rookie WR coming off an ankle injury. It’s possible the damage still got in the way, but I still have concerns about Douglas copying this output.
His struggles with press and contact are pretty obvious, and other teams will likely use that against him. Douglas will need to learn how to extend his arms and get DBs away from him to get open and get separation.
I believe he can grow into that area, but it will probably take a while. Remember this is a third-round rookie in a limited pass offense. And consider Douglas a risk-reward option rather than a weekly starter.