Thank you for nflFastR project, Pro Football Focus for up-to-date data sources.
For those of you who are new here, I will be publishing key QB stats each week on how well the Colts QB is performing. Yes, the O-Line, receivers, and play-calling affect these numbers but they are primarily QB measures. I will probably change the charts throughout the season. The commentary is short but feel free to let me know in the comments that stats aren’t everything. (click charts for larger view)
That first quarter—and much of the second—may have been the worst performance I’ve ever seen from a starting quarterback. Jones improved as the game went on, but not enough to get out of the bottom tier of quarterbacks in Week 4.
mouseover definitions:
arsr,
Edp,
sg%,
oz%,
pr%,
tip,
tht,
data,
is/c,
Yak,
Yacoe,
yd/c,
ac%,
cpoe,
that’s enough,
Dr,
scr%,
facing %,
sck%,
aa%,
the/d,
the/p,
1st percent,
td%,
in %,
qbsr,
epa/p,
adj/p
- Indianapolis got good production from its running game while leaning toward the pass on early downs. (2nd ARSR; 13th EDP)
- Jones faced about a moderate amount of pressure, but only because he got the ball out so quickly, which meant the O-line let him down this week. (17th PR%; 30th TIP; 29th TTT)
- He had the shortest attempts in the league (3.8 yards), and even his completions produced very little yardage either through the air or after the catch. (32nd ADOT; 28th AY/C; 22nd YAC; 32nd YD/C)
- His 67.9% adjusted completion rate may be good but given the depth of the throws it is lower than expected. Combine that with poor yards after the catch and he’s near the bottom of the league in production per attempt. (20th AC%; 26th CPOE; 30th AYPA)
- Jones didn’t even say a word, but he had to throw the ball five times so maybe we should be glad he only has an average sack rate. ( 28th SCR%; 1st TA%; 16th SCK%)
- Once all those abandoned plays are factored in, passing the game on a play-by-play basis does almost nothing. (31st NY/D; 31st NY/P)
- Jones couldn’t move the chains so it’s no surprise that he ended up with a single touchdown (29th 1ST%; 20th TD%)
- Turnovers are another big problem. Jones threw an interception and fumbled a sack that gave him one of the highest turnover rates this week. (4th TO%)
- Overall, it wasn’t just a couple of disastrous plays that dragged down a decent game. Jones made a successful play in just 34% of his QB playswhile the sack-fumble and interception added two particularly costly negatives. He finished near the bottom of the league in both consistency and overall value. (29th QBSR; 28th EPA/P)
mouseover definitions:
is,
dp%,
is/c,
Yak,
yd/c,
ac%,
that’s enough,
drp%,
that’s enough,
facing %,
especially,
sck%,
the/a,
scr%,
the/d,
car%,
the/p,
1st percent,
whatever,
td%,
whatever,
in %,
whatever,
epa/p,
Opd,
adj/p
Jones didn’t generate enough through the air. The short passing game produced very little yardage, and below-average completion production pushed the offense farther. The only way to make that situation work was to shore up first downs by avoiding sacks and turnovers, but that didn’t happen.
Jones had a brutal start, labor only one positive value plays in the first fourteen, including two turnovers. It was almost the end of the 2nd quarter before he started digging himself out of the hole and if we just look at that point forward, he had a decent game. But the first half counted and his numbers never recovered from how poorly he started the game.
Jones’ season was moving in the wrong direction. After a poor Week 1, he rebounded in Week 2, but that progress didn’t last—falling off sharply since then. All four steps are now declining, with his consistency and overall production deteriorating.
The slow start really stands out here too. Jones completed a few passes early, but almost all were underneath and did very little. He eventually found a little more downfield production, but never established a sustained rhythm that might have salvaged an overall ineffective day.
Jones came up short in Week 4, with his target depth and the depth of his completions falling off a cliff. More importantly, this isn’t just a one-week blip—the recent trend continues toward a shorter passing game.
I’ll leave the same comment I made last week: Jones’ passing is good, but it can’t make up for the YAC and the completion rate isn’t high.
Laquon Treadwell leads Indianapolis with 42 receiving yards (if you can call that leading), with Tyler Warren right behind him at 41 receiving yards.
Downs leads the team in receiving yards, with Warren and Treadwell pretty close. Warren generated most of his production after the catch, while Treadwell’s yardage came mostly from deeper completions.
Most of Jones’ receivers produced a below-average amount per target in Week 4, and much of that production also came on shorter throws—clustering them in a quadrant I like to call, “the worst quadrant”.
Season-wise, the numbers spread about how you would expect though I really like the Colts to get a higher value pass on Warren.
Jones posted an average completion rate, but with such a short average target depth, he should have completed passes at a higher rate—indicating another below-average week for accuracy.
Jones’ throwing time was the fastest in 18 weeks, largely because the pressure forced him to get the ball out quickly. Even with a very short passing game, he still releases the ball faster than expected for the depth of his throws. I’d say it’s because he processes the game quickly, but more so because he’s under pressure.
Jones struggled on both short throws under 10 yards and deep passes beyond 20, but he found some success in the intermediate 10-to-20-yard range.
Maybe by the end of the year, there will be more green.