Since I’ve had time to sit through Sunday’s results, I feel almost the same as when the clock struck zero. Yes, the Colts finally won a game, but they won a game in a way they hadn’t in a long time. Ugly compared to a good team.
The Anthony Richardson era has featured some ugly wins, games in Chicago and Miami come to mind in 2024. But they have yet to win an ugly game against a good team.
They’ve gotten off to hot starts before, but haven’t been able to make enough plays when it matters. Sunday, they finally did.
Despite being 0-3, I think there’s a lot to fear when it comes to Houston… well their defense at least. Their defense played perfectly. I feel like the Colts have to earn every single yard. They were better up front, they wreaked havoc in the backfield, and really forced the Colts to play a certain way without Alec Pierce.
Daniel Jones had too many turnovers against the Texans. The biggest issue I’ve noticed is that he drifts back into the pocket and gets himself into trouble before he throws the ball. Quarterbacks like Patrick Mahomes have elite arm strength to make some of the throws without working, but even that gets him in trouble. Because your tackles don’t know where the QB’s launch point is, they think they are riding the DE “around the hump” but are really just bringing him to the QB.
The Texans play a lot of vision zone or spot drop defense. They don’t match any routes or pass things, they just drop to their landmarks relative to where the QB’s eyes are. Jones was very good on this play at hooking defenders out of their spots to create throwing windows—especially late in the game when it matters most.
Here’s a great example of what elite vision zone defense can do to a QB. Reed Blankenship reads Jones’ eyes in Cover 3. Vision droppers are taught to drift their landmarks based on where the QB is looking. So when Jones brings his eyes to the sideline, Blankenship “melts” out. But if the QB is looking at you, you are taught to hold your landmark. This is very similar to the combine drill we see every February.
I thought Josh Downs was fantastic in this game. He is limited schematically as a player, simply because of his size, but he owns his role as well as anyone in football. The downs are incredible after the catch. Here the Colts run a 2nd level RPO and run a glance route to put the WILL LB in contention.
Downs works back the other way after catching many of these inbound routes. I wonder how teams will begin to defend that in the future. This will definitely affect how future players take angles to tackle him. Sometimes it doesn’t matter because Downs has a natural feel for space, but he put this move on tape, so I think teams will be thinking about it all week.
Some very weird reps in this game. The Colts run Snag + Basic (a concept the Colts have run a million times with Jones, Minshew, Richardson, Flacco, you name it). The goal is to put a horizontal stretch on the curl-flat player. Will he bring the RB quickly to the flat or hang out on the hurdle route. This is a clear read to get the ball to the RB in the flat. But Jones hung on a route block and was then sacked at a crucial point in the game.
The defense had a bounce back game, but it’s important to take it with a grain of salt. The Nico Collinsless Texans offense isn’t explosive, and other than CJ Stroud’s accuracy, they aren’t doing anything very well. They also choked the game when it mattered most in the 4th Quarter. Now granted, they deserve credit for hanging in there while losing the turnover battle… but Stroud did what Stroud did in almost every game he played against the Colts. Make plays when they matter most.
I think the Colts can build their third down sub package with Tomi and DeForest Buckner. They are both lightning fast on the ball. It was a perfectly executed stunt. Any time you can get a free runner on an inside slot your chances of winning that increase
I think Justin Walley is really building confidence as a nickel corner. He gets better every single week he’s out there.
Look at how tight the Colts play coverage on this rep. Granted, it didn’t look that way until the month of September, and part of that was the lack of talent in the Texans WR room, but that’s how the Colts like play defense.
WHAT DO I THINK HEADING INTO WEEK 4?
Heading into Week 4 I think the Colts need to find their identity on offense again. In order for the Colts to survive without Alec Pierce, they need to find someone, literally anyone, who can catch the ball down the field. Right now, it’s really hard to chase down explosives when you don’t have speed on the field. Safeties don’t have to play as deep, coverage is compressed, and you can be more aggressive in coverage. If they can lighten up some of these boxes, I believe Jonathan Taylor could be the guy almost guaranteed to rush for over 120 yards every weekend.
Burks is a guy I look up to. He became their jet motion/sweep player. He has speed but doesn’t have the route or target equity for defenses to truly respect it. I think that needs to change soon.
Defensively, I think the Colts need to preform well this weekend to feel confident about their move forward. You are playing a backup QB without any receivers to challenge a corner where you gave up 2 first round picks. I’m looking at the pass rush in this matchup. The interior pass rush held up their end of the bargain, but I think it’s time for Laiatu Latu to start the game. I don’t care what Lou Anarumo’s role is with him.