🏈 What Happened to That 14-Point Betting Edge?
Last Wednesday, we highlighted a 14-point discrepancy between Steve Makinen’s college football ratings and the betting market.
Steve’s Effective Play-by-Play Rating makes Sam Houston a 12.6 point favorite over Western Kentucky. The market had Sam Houston as a 1.5-point underdog.
We asked: Does tonight’s difference point to a coincidence?
Western Kentucky won, 16-3.
I heard from some of you about that one. So is Steve.
Steve went back through the numbers to understand what happened.
He found that Sam Houston’s strong early-season performance still carries a lot of weight in his full-season ratings, even if the Bearkats’ recent results have taken a turn for the worse. Western Kentucky is moving in the opposite direction.
So for Week 8, Steve introduces something new: a second set of projected point spreads designed to better reflect how teams have been performing recently.
And the differences can be dramatic. Consider Saturday’s Iowa–Minnesota game:
- betting line: Iowa -7
- Original Effective Play-by-Play line: Iowa -5.5
- New predicted line: Iowa -17
Steve emphasizes that the new model is experimental. There is no historical track record yet to determine if it is more accurate.
But now we have two ways to analyze every game on the Week 8 board — and some fascinating disagreements between them.
>> See Steve Makinen’s Week 8 Ratings and What Changed
Sam Houston Gets Another Chance Tonight
In a fitting coincidence, Sam Houston (+2.5) hosts New Mexico State tonight (8 pm ET, ESPN2).
This time, Steve’s original and new models are closer to the betting market, although they lean in opposite directions.
Adam Burke also has a handicap in the matchup. He found that Sam Houston’s passing stats tell a telling story once you separate its performance against FCS competition from its games against FBS opponents.
Adam sees other key factors in tonight’s matchup, including scheduling advantage and significant differences in the teams’ rushing attacks.
>> New Mexico State’s Best Bet by Adam Burke–Sam Houston
For the rest of the Week 8 schedule, including picks, power ratings and game previews:
>> College Football Week 8 Betting Hub
Previously: What we wrote last Wednesday’s VSiN Daily.
🚨 Ohio State Quarterback Injury: A Four-Point Adjustment?
Ohio State quarterback Julian Sayin is out with an injury to his throwing arm. And Steve Makinen believes his absence is worth at least four points in the Buckeyes’ power rating.
“I usually want to give it a play until I make a permanent change so we can tell what the new level of quarterbacks are,” Steve texted me on Tuesday night.
Coach Ryan Day said he is preparing for the possibility that Sayin will miss the rest of the regular season and postseason.
The Buckeyes have this weekend off before visiting USC on Halloween. Day has a bye week to evaluate Luke Fahey and Tavien St. Clair as possible replacements.
At Circa, the Buckeyes’ odds of winning the national title are +475, just behind Notre Dame (+450) and ahead of Georgia (+480).
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🏆 Survivor Week 7: Toughest Yet?
Gill Alexander and Kelley Bydlon aren’t on Circa Survivor, but they’re still doing homework for everyone else.
In their Week 7 breakdown, Gill leads the Cowboys and Broncos, leaving three possibilities for the surviving entrants to evaluate.
Matt Brown, who still has a live entry, calls it the hardest week yet. It’s easy for him to tell when 95 percent of the field has been eliminated.
>> Watch the Week 7 Survivor Analysis
>> Check the Survivor Sweat marketplace for entries available for sale
🏈 Get ahead of Thursday Night Football
The Patriots visit the Bears tomorrow night, and Zach Cohen has broken down the matchup, with player odds, picks and props.
>> Patriots–Bears Preview by Zach Cohen
>> NFL Week 7 Betting Hub
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⚾ World Series: A Fascinating Offensive Matchup
The World Series doesn’t start until Friday in Milwaukee, but Adam Burke is already digging into the Rays–Brewers.
“This is an amazing offensive series,” Adam wrote in his preview.
Adam sees Milwaukee as the stronger team, but there’s an important difference between picking a winner and finding value at the current price of the series.
And, somehow, he does the word “schlong” in his analysis. You have to read it to find out how.
>> Adam Burke’s World Series Preview and Best Bets
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🏀 NBA Day 2: From Futures to Bets Tonight
The NBA season continues, and the focus has shifted from preseason predictions to tonight’s games.
Zach Cohen will have his Best Bets later this morning.
>> NBA Picks
More tools for your NBA handicapping:
Betting Splits on Circa and DraftKings
The NBA Betting Systems by Steve Makinen
NBA Player Prop Analyzer
Opta AI NBA Prop Projection
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🏒 NHL: Jonathan Davis’ Latest Picks
Jonathan Davis breaks down Wednesday’s NHL schedule and the betting opportunities he’s watching.
>> JD’s NHL Picks and Analysis
⛳ Golf: Can Wes Find Value in Bermuda?
Port Royal is one of the shortest courses on the PGA Tour, but that doesn’t make it easy.
The wind can be a major factor at the Butterfield Bermuda Championship, making course and conditions suitability even more important. Wes Reynolds breaks down the field and identifies his preferred betting opportunities.
>> Wes’ Butterfield Bermuda Championship Best Bets
🐎 Wednesday at Keeneland
The Daily Racing Form has picks and analysis for Wednesday’s Keeneland card.
>> Wednesday’s Keeneland Picks
🥊 UFC 333: Lou Finocchiaro Betting Preview
Lou breaks down Volkanovski vs. Evloev and the UFC 333 card, including odds, predictions and best bets.
>> Lou’s UFC 333 Betting Preview