Brewers vs. Rays
My good friend and former teammate Ben Wilson, a Wisconsin native, texted me last night after an eight-run fifth inning from the Brewers and said, “It was an out-of-body experience.” His boyhood team was sitting on the precipice of the first World Series win in franchise history. Years of innovation, scouting, player development, and a bit of good fortune have combined to give the Brewers a 3-0 lead over the Rays in the World Series and it could all come to an end tonight.
Tropicana Field is like American Family Field South for Game 3 and you know any Brewers fans in the area or those who can are looking to get Game 4 tickets on the secondary market. They were strong in that fifth inning, as the Brewers did what the Brewers do – put the balls in play and run the bases hard. Meanwhile, the lone highlight for the Rays was Yandy Diaz bat-flipping an RBI double down 10 runs.
Brewers (-125, 7) vs. Rays World Series Game 4 Prediction
Tuesday, 8 pm ET (FOX)
Milwaukee had not announced a starter as of 6:30 am PT when I began writing this preview. I’m not saying they want to give the Rays any life in this series, but they have some wiggle room, especially with Jacob Misiorowski slated for Game 5 and then Logan Henderson for Game 6. Hell, even Robert Gasser for Game 7 seems safe with his six shutout innings in Game 3.
Dustin May is a factor in some capacity. Monday night was special for the Brewers, not only because of the 10-1 win and 3-0 series lead, but because the only relievers needed after Gasser were Antonio Senzatela and Brandon Woodruff. That means he has Pat Murphy’s entire bullpen. May threw 12 pitches in Saturday’s game, so I expect him to get a lot of innings here in some shape or form.
The left-handed Gasser put Rays manager Kevin Cash in an interesting situation, as he benched Jonathan Aranda, Liam Hicks, and Richie Palacios, who have been some of the team’s better hitters this postseason. Do we see the Brewers start left-hander Shane Drohan or perhaps look for two innings off the DL Hall to try and get Cash to overmanage again? Hall, along with fellow lefty JoJo Romero, worked Saturday, throwing 11 and 16 pitches, respectively. Two days off for Aaron Ashby, who is having one of the best postseasons of all time, also gives Murphy a runway to use him for the killshot.
Milwaukee is very well prepared in every aspect for this series. They hit .327/.400/.430, while Tampa hit .187/.237/.264. Tampa scored seven runs. Four went into the first inning of Game 2 and were scoreless after that.
Not only was yesterday perfect for the Brewers from a relief corps standpoint, it was a tough one for the Rays. Closer Bryan Baker hasn’t been used in the series and Kevin Kelly and Ian Seymour have two days off, but five relievers were needed in the blowout loss. Griffin Jax got the start, as he allowed four runs on six hits in six playoff innings with a 6/3 K/BB ratio. Petey Halpin hit a huge two-run homer off him in Game 3 of the ALCS to give the Guardians a 2-1 series lead, which they squandered. Jax was good until Cash pushed him a little too far.
As a starter, Jax allowed a .253/.293/.342 slash the first time through the streak in 206 plate appearances. The second time around, he allowed a .217/.284/.428 slash with nine of the 12 homers he allowed as a starter. I’m curious to see how big his runway is here. The main pitches for Jax are the sweeper, sinker, changeup, and four-seam fastball. Lefties slashed .248/.300/.404 against him with a .307 wOBA and righties put up a .216/.286/.346 slash with a .281 wOBA.
I’m going to assume Jax is sweeper-heavy here, as the Brewers batted just .215 with a .396 SLG and a .276 wOBA against that pitch. They have seen a lot of sinkers and changeups in this series. Notably, Jax threw just eight sweepers against Cleveland, accounting for nearly half of his regular-season pitch usage. He had just four Whiffs in 27 swings. He must have really had no feel for the pitch or the Rays wanted to make an adjustment because he had 20% pitch usage the first time through the order and then 3% the second time, when he actually increased his sinker usage.
Jax has 39% sweeper usage against RHB and just 16% against LHB during the season. He’ll see six lefties in the lineup tonight, meaning he’ll go with those guys and likely attack Jackson Chourio and William Contreras, the MVP co-favorite as of this morning, with sweepers. This is a great way to attack both. Chourio is hitting just .185 with a .370 SLG and a .236 wOBA against sweepers, while Contreras is just .161 with a .339 SLG and a .230 wOBA.
I think the Brewers will close out the series tonight, but it will be tight. I’ll take them -125, but I also like the Under 7. I think Jax actually matches up okay with Milwaukee. I don’t expect the Rays to do much offensively and Murphy will look to close out the series tonight with some aggressive reliever usage if the opportunity arises.
Remember, we had a 2-0 game before a bad decision by Junior Caminero and a lazy reach by Ben Williamson opened the floodgates for a barrage of bloops, bleeders, and grounders that found holes.
Pick: Brewers -125; Under 7 (-105)