Today’s NBA Betting Trends:
The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games on 10/28. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s NBA games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
* Under the total is 12-1 in the Hornets-Pistons set since the start of 2023
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): CHA-DET (o/u at 215.5)
* NBA teams that won as favorites by a close margin (1-3 points) have gone 318-175 SU but just 204-276-13 ATS (42.5%) in the next contest when favored again.
System Match (FADE): CLEVELAND (-10.5 vs WSH)
* NBA teams playing at home in the 2 Days Rest game scenario are 33-17 Over the total hosting teams playing a 3rd in 4 Days game over the last season
* LA CLIPPERS are 17-4 Over the total playing with 2 Days Rest since December 2024
System/Trend Match (PLAY OVER): LAL-LAC (o/u at 229.5
Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping
The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that’s how much rest they’ve had before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they handle injuries and workloads under schedule pressure.
* DETROIT is 27-12 Over the total playing in the 4th in 6 Days game scenario since January 2025
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): CHA-DET (o/u at 215.5)
* NEW YORK is just 8-9 SU and 4-13 ATS (23.5%) vs. the current lowest scoring teams in the league (scoring <114 PPG), since the start of last season
Trend Match (FADE): NEW YORK (-6.5 at CHI)
* GOLDEN STATE is 130-127 SU but 109-144 ATS playing in One Day Rest games since January 2022
Trend Match (FADE): GOLDEN STATE (+3.5 at MIN)
* HOUSTON is 63-109 SU and 69-100 ATS playing in the 4th in 6 Days game scenario since December 2021
Trend Match (FADE): HOUSTON (-8.5 at MIL)
* MILWAUKEE is 94-61 Over the total playing at home with One Day Rest since January 2021
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): HOU-MIL (o/u at 225.5)
* OKLAHOMA CITY is 183-100 SU and 162-113 ATS playing in the popular One Day Rest scenario since October 2021
Trend Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-6.5 at DAL)
* NBA teams playing in the back–to-back home/away game scenario are 16-23 SU and 12-26 ATS vs. teams playing a 3rd Home in 4 Days game over the last three seasons
Trend Match (FADE): SAN ANTONIO (-13.5 at UTA)
* UTAH is 113-79 Over the total playing with One Day Rest since November 2022
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): SAS-UTA (o/u at 233.5)
* WASHINGTON is 0-14 SU and 2-12 ATS playing in 4th in 6 Days games since February 2026
* CLEVELAND is 12-4 SU but 3-13 ATS (18.8%) as a double-digit home favorite since the start of last season
Trends Match: 1 FADE WASHINGTON, 1 FADE CLEVELAND (spread CLE -10.5)
* ATLANTA is 3-7 SU and 2-8 ATS (20%) at a home favorite of -1 to-5 points since the start of last season
Trend Match (FADE): ATLANTA (-2.5 vs MIA)
* MIAMI is 76-40 Over the total playing with One Day Rest since March 2024
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): MIA-ATL (o/u at 241.5)
* NBA teams playing in the One Day Rest game scenario are 16-33 SU and 14-34 ATS vs. teams playing a 3+ Days Rest game over the last four seasons
System Match (FADE): DENVER (-4.5 at NOP)
* DENVER is 19-3 Over the total (85.7%) vs teams currently winning less than 40% of their games, since the start of last season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): DEN-NOP (o/u at 240.5)
* NBA teams playing at home in the 2 Days Rest game scenario were 36-14 SU and 34-16 ATS hosting teams playing a 3rd in 4 Days game last season
System Match (PLAY): LA CLIPPERS (+4.5 vs LAL)
* NBA teams playing at home in the 2 Days Rest game scenario are 33-17 Over the total hosting teams playing a 3rd in 4 Days game over the last season
* LA CLIPPERS are 17-4 Over the total playing with 2 Days Rest since December 2024
System/Trend Match (PLAY OVER): LAL-LAC (o/u at 229.5)
Top Daily Head-to-Head Series NBA Betting Trends
Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for today’s games:
(541) MIAMI at (542) ATLANTA
* MIAMI is 6-1 SU and ATS in the last seven matchups with Atlanta
Trend Match (PLAY): MIAMI (+2.5 at ATL)
(543) WASHINGTON at (544) CLEVELAND
* Home teams are 10-3 ATS in the last 13 of the Wizards-Cavs set
Trend Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-10.5 vs WSH)
* Over the total has converted in five straight of the overall series as well
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): WSH-CLE (o/u at 239.5)
(545) PHILADELPHIA at (546) INDIANA
* Home teams are 5-1 ATS in the last six of the 76ers-Pacers series
Trend Match (PLAY): INDIANA (+5.5 vs PHI)
(547) CHARLOTTE at (548) DETROIT
* Under the total is 12-1 in the Hornets-Pistons set since the start of 2023
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): CHA-DET (o/u at 215.5)
(549) ORLANDO at (550) TORONTO
* Under the total has converted in five straight meetings between Orlando and Toronto at Scotiabank Arena
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): ORL-TOR (o/u at 222.5)
(551) DENVER at (552) NEW ORLEANS
* NEW ORLEANS is 3-4 SU but 6-1 ATS in their last seven instances hosting Denver
Trend Match (PLAY): NEW ORLEANS (+4.5 vs DEN)
(553) GOLDEN STATE at (554) MINNESOTA
* MINNESOTA is 5-1 SU and ATS in the last six games with Golden State
Trend Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (-3.5 vs GSW)
(555) NEW YORK at (556) CHICAGO
* Home teams are on a 5-1 SU ATS surge in the Knicks-Bulls set
Trend Match (PLAY): CHICAGO (+6.5 vs NYK)
(557) HOUSTON at (558) MILWAUKEE
* Over the total has converted in five of the last six matchups between Houston and Milwaukee at Fiserv Forum
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): HOU-MIL (o/u at 225.5)
(559) SAN ANTONIO at (560) UTAH
* Road teams are 9-3 SU and 10-2 ATS in the last 12 of the Spurs-Jazz set
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN ANTONIO (-13.5 at UTA)
(561) OKLAHOMA CITY at (562) DALLAS
* Underdogs are 8-2 ATS in the last 10 of the Thunder-Mavs series
Trend Match (PLAY): DALLAS (+6.5 vs OKC)
(563) LA LAKERS at (564) LA CLIPPERS
* LA CLIPPERS are on a 4-0 ATS streak versus rival LA Lakers
Trend Match (PLAY): LA CLIPPERS (+4.5 vs LAL)
NBA Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last six NBA seasons.
NBA Team Strength Betting System #1:
In games between two teams with 60%+ winning percentages, home teams favored in the -4.5 to -9.5 range are on a 198-77 SU and 157-117-1 ATS (57.3%) run.
System Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-7.5 vs CHA)
NBA Team Strength Betting System #2:
In games between two teams with 40% or less winning percentages, and lines of 4.5 or less either way, road teams are on a 143-118 SU and 146-112-3 ATS (56.6%) surge.
System Match (PLAY): DENVER (-4.5 at NOP)
NBA Team Strength Betting System #3:
NBA road favorites winning 36% of their games or less are on an impressive surge of 102-44 SU and 89-56-1 ATS (61.4%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NEW YORK (-6.5 at CHI), DENVER (-4.5 at NOP)
NBA Team Strength Betting System #6:
Divisional single-digit home underdogs winning 38% of their games or less have gone 48-136 SU and 81-98-5 ATS (45.3%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (FADE): LA CLIPPERS (+4.5 vs LAL)
NBA Team Strength Betting System #7:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last five seasons, dependent upon what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 146-128 (53.3%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 279-233 (54.5%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 370-300 (55.2%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – WSH-CLE (spread CLE -10.5, o/u at 239.5), SAS-UTA (spread SAS -13.5, o/u at 233.5)
NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems
These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last six seasons unless noted.
Allowing 135+ points in a game is a sign of trouble
NBA teams off of a game in which they allowed 135+ points and are now favored have gone 205-117 SU but 149-169-4 ATS (46.9%) in the follow-up contest over the last eight seasons.
System Match (FADE): LA LAKERS (-4.5 at LAC)
Teams losing despite scoring well are dangerous
NBA teams coming off back-to-back losses in which they scored 115+ points offensively have bounced back extremely well in the next outing when installed as underdogs, going 124-83-1 ATS (59.9%) since the start of the 2018-2019 season.
System Match (PLAY): NEW ORLEANS (+4.5 vs DEN)
Road favorites bounce back after losing as home favorite
NBA teams that come off a game in which they lost as home favorites flush that result quickly when next a road favorite, going 189-88 SU and 153-120-4 ATS (56%) (sub-system: 93-32 SU and 72-49-4 ATS (59.5%) when favored by 4 points or more versus intraconference foes) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DENVER (-4.5 at NOP), LA LAKERS (-4.5 at LAC)
Close wins haven’t provided for momentum going forward
NBA teams that won as favorites by a close margin (1-3 points) have gone 318-175 SU but just 204-276-13 ATS (42.5%) in the next contest when favored again.
System Match (FADE): CLEVELAND (-10.5 vs WSH)
Early season large wins lead to Unders
NBA teams who won their previous game by 25+ points have gone Under the total at a 31-15-1 (67.4%) rate in games 2-5 of the season in the last 47 tries.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): SAS-UTA (o/u at 233.5)
Upset wins over conference opponents lead to next game stumbles versus non-conference
NBA teams coming off an upset win over an intra-conference foe have had problems when facing a non-conference opponent in the next game, going just 180-223 SU and 176-223-4 ATS (44.1%) since late-January 2021.
System Match (FADE): MILWAUKEE (+8.5 vs HOU)
Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 366-369 SU and 335-392-8 ATS (46.1%) in the next game over the last six seasons.
System Match (FADE): GOLDEN STATE (+3.5 at MIN)
NBA road teams coming off a game in which they made 20+ 3-point shots have gone just 213-224 SU and 205-222-10 ATS (48%) in that next contest over the last eight seasons.
System Match (FADE): GOLDEN STATE (+3.5 at MIN)
Massive rebounding differentials
NBA teams that had a -15 or worse rebounding differential have struggled to tighten up in a back-to-back situation, going Over the total at a 116-79 (59.5%) rate since 2021, including 61-36 (62.9%) to the Over in the last 97.
System Match (PLAY OVER): LAL-LAC (o/u at 229.5)
High TO games can be significant
NBA teams that committed 20+ turnovers in the previous game have done well in expected-tight matchups (within -4 to +4 line range) in the follow-up game, going 108-77 SU and 110-74-1 ATS (59.8%) in their last 185 tries.
System Match (PLAY): NONE YET BUT WATCH FOR LA CLIPPERS vs LAL (+4.5 CURRENTLY)
NBA Streak Systems
The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.
NBA Streak Betting System #2:
Teams having won their last four games or more have been a solid wager when playing as large road favorites of 7.5-points or more, going 110-25 SU and 74-58-3 ATS (56.1%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY): HOUSTON (-8.5 at MIL)
*WATCH FOR OKLAHOMA CITY at DAL (-6.5 CURRENTLY)
Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data
Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:15 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the side of a home team playing as a 4-point favorite or less (or as an underdog) on ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 235-205 ATS (53.4%) over the last four seasons, good for +9.5 units of profit and a ROI of 2.2%. This is fairly a profitable system that the public seems to get right consistently.
System Match (PLAY): UTAH
DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 976-891 ATS (52.3%) over the last four seasons. This has produced -4.1 units and an ROI of -0.2%. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): WASHINGTON, PHILADELPHIA, DENVER, HOUSTON, LA LAKERS
DK NBA Betting Splits system #3: It is a somewhat rare situation, but when there was a majority handle backing a home underdog in the NBA over the last four seasons, that group produced a 165-139 ATS record (54.3%). This has netted +12.1 units and a ROI of 4%. As a general rule, most bettors tend to bet favorites.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHICAGO, UTAH
DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 3+ seasons, that group produced a 567-511 ATS record (52.6%), good for +4.9 units of profit and an ROI of 0.5%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MIAMI, GOLDEN STATE, UTAH
DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-Conference games (East versus West) of the last three seasons, DK supermajority handle groups of 62% or greater have been successful, as they are 552-485 ATS (53.2%). This simple angle has produced +18.5 units of profit and an ROI of +1.8%.
System Match (PLAY): HOUSTON
DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last 3+ seasons, with handle groups of that size boasting a 677-598 ATS record, good for 53.1%. This is about a 3% improvement on the overall majority figures and has netted +19.2 units of profit and a ROI of +1.5%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): WASHINGTON, PHILADELPHIA, TORONTO, DENVER, UTAH
DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. When any majority number has favored the Under option over the last four seasons, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 554-462, good for 54.5%, +45.8 units, and an ROI of +4.5% since January ’23.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): MIA-ATL, WSH-CLE, CHA-DET, PHI-IND, ORL-TOR, DEN-NOP, GSW-MIN, OKC-DAL
DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: The average NBA game total since January of 2023 has been a bit over 228. In NBA games with “low” totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors have gone an impressive 487-422 (53.6%).
System Match (PLAY): UNDER – CHA-DET
DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: Majority handle under bettors have been successful when sticking to their guns despite DraftKings raising total off of its opening number. These Under majorities have gone 223-172 (56.5%) since January 2023 by not getting baited into this totals trap. This has been a very profitable angle in terms of ROI, producing +33.8 units of profit for +8.6%.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): MIA-ATL, DEN-NOP
Today’s NBA Strength Ratings
The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses).
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CHARLOTTE +7.5 (+2.1)
2. NEW ORLEANS +4.5 (+1.0)
3. LA CLIPPERS +4.5 (+0.9)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. NEW YORK -6.5 (+2.3)
2. ATLANTA -1.5 (+2.2)
3. OKLAHOMA CITY -6.5 (+0.6)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. INDIANA +5.5 (+7.3)
2(tie). NEW ORLEANS +4.5 (+1.1)
LA CLIPPERS +4.5 (+1.1)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. NEW YORK -6.5 (+1.1)
2. OKLAHOMA CITY -6.5 (+0.8)
3. DETROIT -7.5 (+0.4)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. OKC-DAL OVER 228.5 (+2.1)
2. HOU-MIL OVER 225.5 (+0.8)
3. DEN-NOP OVER 240.5 (+0.5)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1(tie). CHA-DET UNDER 215.5 (-3.1)
SAS-UTA UNDER 233.5 (-3.1)
3. PHI-IND UNDER 236.5 (-3.0)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CHARLOTTE +7.5 (+3.0)
2. NEW ORLEANS +4.5 (+1.3)
3. GOLDEN STATE +4.5 (+0.9)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. NEW YORK -6.5 (+2.9)
2. ATLANTA -1.5 (+2.3)
3. TORONTO -4.5 (+1.0)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. OKC-DAL OVER 228.5 (+2.1)
2. DEN-NOP OVER 240.5 (+2.0)
3. GSW-MIN OVER 227.5 (+1.9)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. SAS-UTA UNDER 233.5 (-3.8)
2. CHA-DET UNDER 215.5 (-2.6)
3. PHI-IND UNDER 236.5 (-2.3)