We are definitely moving in the right direction at our best bet. After a rough start, we’ve hit three out of five each in the last two weeks, but there’s one I’m particularly proud of — and, for your sake, hope you get on board.
I put Jacoby Brissett 2+ passing touchdowns AND 1+ interceptions in the world last week, and he came through: three touchdowns, one interception. We cashed out +230 odds. And now I have to re-emphasize this:
Jacoby Brissett has thrown 2+ passing touchdowns AND 1+ interceptions in seven of his last 11 starts. And you can still get it at major plus odds!
Thanks for listening.
We also got the coverage of the Texans against the Titans and Davante Adams as the all-time touchdown scorer. We missed the Bears, getting stomped by the Packers, and a Drake Maye rushing prop; the blowout was really painful there.
But overall, it was another good week. Let’s continue stacking.
As always, all betting odds are courtesy of DraftKings.
Patriots cover (-7.5) vs. Jets (-110)
I was surprised when I saw this line. The Jets are coming off a win against the Browns, yes, but it was a 17-12 affair in the rain where the Jets were managed a paltry 4.2 yards per play and basically won because Deshaun Watson was incompetent.
Drake Maye has had some rough stretches this year but is really hitting his stride. Over the past two weeks, Maye led the NFL in passing touchdowns and passer rating and was third in yards per attempt. He had just two sacks after taking nine from Weeks 1-3. The big play is back in a major way, a big part of Maye at his best.
The defense has also arrived, even without Christian Gonzalez. Now, it looks like he’ll be back to add a unit that ranks fifth in yards per play allowed. Also, Zak Kuhr is dialing up some impressive pressure looks, and Geno Smith has the third-most sacks in the NFL this year.
Texans ML vs. Jaguars (+120)
I’m really scared about what this defensive line in Houston can do with a Jaguars offensive line that lost Anton Harrison and isn’t in the best shape. Last week, Jalen Carter absolutely dominated Jacksonville’s interior o-line; this week, it’s Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter on the sides.
On top of that, CJ Stroud has played very good ball this season. In the three games Nico Collins has played, Stroud is completing 70.9% of his passes, averaging 8.6 yards per attempt, and posting a 0.24 EPA per dropback. Extended to the full season, that would be second, fourth and sixth, respectively. He also didn’t throw an interception all season.
Finally, while the Jaguars are down perhaps their best lineman, the Texans’ own, Braden Smith, is back. Marvin Harrison Jr. is also expected to do so. his debut in Houston. I expect a big day for Collins and the Texans, with an important win to take home.
Juwan Johnson 40+ receiving yards (-134)
The Giants are coming off a game where they gave up four catches and 60 receiving yards to Chig Okonkwo. Now they face another receiving-first tight end in Juwan Johnson. Johnson has continued to be productive this year — at least three catches and at least 50 yards per game — before facing a great Vikings defense. He had just 16 yards last week. But the Giants’ defense isn’t the Vikings’ defense, and it’s not even close. I like Johnson to have a solid day against a linebacking unit that has had big ups and downs in coverage.
Tucker Kraft 40+ receiving yards (-166)
How about another tight end? The Cowboys’ potent offense and porous defense make for a shootout, and Tucker Kraft should be the beneficiary. There’s always going to be a bit of a ramp-up for a great tight end coming off a torn ACL, but over the past two weeks, he’s had 11 catches for 104 yards. Now he faces a Cowboys defense that can’t seem to stop anyone.
A healthy Joey Porter Jr. should help against Christian Watson and/or Matthew Golden, but defending tight ends is a big issue for Dallas. The Cowboys have allowed 9.0 yards per attempt when opponents target tight ends, the fifth-highest rate in the NFL through five weeks. And it’s not as if they’re facing a ton of good receiving tight ends, either; the best was probably Isaiah Likely in Week 1, and probably had eight catches for 78 yards and two touchdowns.
D’Andre Swift AND Drake London all-time TD scorers (+212)
It looks like Kyle Mongai is out this week for the Bears, so backing D’Andre Swift to find the endzone (-175) makes sense on its own. He scored last week against the Packers, and even though he had just one touch after halftime and Ben Johnson said he didn’t want to overuse any running back, the big deficit certainly didn’t help. If that game had been closer, I doubt Swift would have had just one carry in the second half. The return of Caleb Williams should help this offense significantly, and even if he doesn’t return, I think Swift will score. He has four touchdowns on the season and has been stopped at the 1-yard line an NFL-high seven times.
Drake London is due for some major regression. He usually dominates with Michael Penix Jr. on the field, and it remains so this year: 21 catches for 408 yards over the past three weeks, all Penix starts. Penix looks good going into Sunday, and that means it’s time for London to find the end zone. His 27 receptions and 488 receiving yards this season are both the most by anyone without a touchdown. The regression will come, and it will start against a leaky Chicago secondary.
Season record: 12-13
6th Week
Season record: 49-30
Last week: 8-7