Average Joe Contest
Picks are locked for Week 3 of the Edge Boost/Average Joe Contest here at VSiN. With over 22,000 selections submitted, we can get a good idea of what the most popular public plays are. This contest includes both NFL and college football picks and has an 11 am ET deadline on Saturday. That means I have time to write up the top picks in the NFL whether you want to ride with the “public” Average Joes or go against them.
Those with Edge Boost accounts funded with $100 or more are eligible to win $1,000 if they have the best score of the week. Sign up with promo code VSiN to get started with Edge Boost. If you just want to play for fun, you can do that too, because this contest has no entry fee.
We use lines from Circa Sports starting at 1 pm ET every Friday and all participants pick from those numbers. You can read more about the contest rules here.
Note that you may still be eligible for prizes, even if you don’t sign up in time for Week 3. You can do that here.
NFL Picks Week 3
Let’s take a look at the most popular spreads for NFL Week 3. These are the most popular games by consensus, so they may not be the most picked side by volume, but have the highest percentage of spread picks in that particular game.
Taking a survey of what “Average Joes” think of the NFL is always intriguing. Of course, you can do that with our DraftKings NFL Betting Splits and Circa NFL Betting Splits, too, but we’re here to see what the players of the tournament think.
Here are the most popular ATS Picks for Week 3:
Saints -3 (94%) vs. Raiders
This is an overwhelming choice for the most popular choice. So out of more than 1,000 picks in the game, only 70 contestants were brave enough to take the Raiders. Joes seems to believe that the 2-0 start for Las Vegas is a little misleading. Either that or they love the Saints, who are 1-1 and is absolutely a step down in class after playing the Lions and Ravens to open the campaign. Whatever the case, New Orleans is a very one-sided look.
Of the 1,079 picks in this spread, 1,009 of them are on the Saints
Jaguars -3 (87%) vs. Patriots
Another field-goal favorite get a lot of love, as the Joes are out with Drake Maye against good teams. At least that’s my guess for the prevailing sentiment in this game. Jacksonville is coming off a tough loss at Denver, while New England got back on track against the Steelers, which hasn’t exactly been a blazing start to the Mike McCarthy era. I’ll warn the Joes and the piggybackers that the Patriots still have a great defense, even if Maye has issues against above-average competition.
Of the 606 picks in this spread, 527 went to the Jaguars.
Seahawks -7.5 (85%) vs Commanders
Surprise, surprise, another consensus favorite. The fourth pick in the popularity pecking order is also a favorite (Texans). Sam Darnold’s impending return along with Jayden Daniels’ botched elbow seemed to create the perfect storm here for the Joes to side with the Seahawks, despite the long trip to the DMV for an early kickoff. I’m not surprised to see a lack of enthusiasm about Marcus Mariota, but it strikes me as kind of a big question.
Of the 546 picks in this spread, 464 went to the Seahawks.
Here are the three most popular totals of Week 3:
Similarly, I’ll also look at the top totals on Saturday morning with a little more context.
Raiders/Saints Over 43.5 (92%)
As I discussed before, Joes, and public bettors in general, are not really interested in getting totals. For example, this is the most popular part with 1,079 picks, but there are only 99 total picks in total. But, the picks on the whole are heavily-slanted towards the Over. Having followed this contest since we started it, many of the games with the highest percentages are pretty predictable. It certainly is, especially with how much Tyler Shough has been throwing so far.
Of the 99 picks out of this total, 91 were in the Over.
Jets/Lions Over 48 (89%)
The Lions and the Over is usually a fairly relatable outcome for the Joes. That’s true here, as 71% of the picks – over 400 – are on the Detroit side of the spread with Over being the preferred side by a wide margin overall. I haven’t been thrilled with what I’ve seen from the Jets offense so far, but the Lions have allowed 71 points in two games and scored 62, so the 66.5 points per game average probably lends itself to the Over test.
Out of 133 picks in total, 118 were in the Over.
Titans/Giants Under 38.5 (88%)
As usual, the Cowboys game had the most Over picks by volume, but enough brave souls took the Under in Brazil, likely with questionable field conditions, to keep that game out of the top three. Instead, Joes will trust Mother Nature with a windy and wet forecast in the Meadowlands for this one. Also, no Jaxson Dart for the Giants is expected to help the cause. That said, the Unders with Jameis Winston throwing four TD passes and four pick-sixes are pretty scary.
Out of 191 picks out of this total, 169 are Under.
See all the pick numbers, including college football, on the Average Joe Contest Betting Splits page.