My Effective Play-by-Play Ratings articles for college football have gotten some feedback from readers over the past two weeks. One of the questions I got last week was why I didn’t just share all the game ratings instead of just the top 15.
The reader reasoned that with ratings that varied, shouldn’t some of them already be numbered? He thought that some of the games with smaller, and perhaps less “public,” edges were where the real value was. I agree to some extent, especially in high-profile games.
Unfortunately, after the top 15 games went 12-3 ATS two weeks ago, I thought I’d put up all of last week’s game ratings. I’m sorry I didn’t. Last week’s top 15 went 5-9-1 ATS, but next 20 games 13-7 ATS.
So, for “experimental purposes,” I’ve decided to share the updated Effective Play-by-Play Rating differences for all 58 FBS vs. FBS game for this week. Here they are, listed in order of the difference of the Rating Line from the Actual Line. Know that I’ll be playing some — not all — of these games and I’ll explain which are the Best Bets in my Wednesday column.
1. (411) SAN DIEGO STATE at (412) OREGON STATE
Actual Line: OREGON STATE -14.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: OREGON STATE -36.4
Difference: 21.9, FAVOR – OREGON STATE
2. (391) UCLA and (392) OREGON
Actual Line: OREGON -11.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: OREGON +9.5
Difference: 21, FAVOR – UCLA
3. (335) BUFFALO and (336) TOLEDO
Actual Line: TOLEDO -20.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: TOLEDO -41.1
Difference: 20.6, FAVOR – TOLEDO
4. (381) TEXAS A&M at (382) MISSOURI
Actual Line: MISSOURI -3.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: MISSOURI -20.9
Difference: 17.4, FAVOR – MISSOURI
5. (355) WAKE FOREST at (356) NC STATE
Actual Line: NC STATE +4
Effective Play-by-Play Line: NC STATE +17
Difference: 13, FAVOR – WAKE FOREST
6. (317) FLORIDA STATE at (318) LOUISVILLE
Actual Line: LOUISVILLE -3.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: LOUISVILLE -15.9
Difference: 12.4, FAVOR – LOUISVILLE
7. (313) SOUTH ALABAMA and (314) ARKANSAS STATE
Actual Line: ARKANSAS STATE -1.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: ARKANSAS STATE -13.5
Difference: 12, FAVOR – ARKANSAS STATE
8. (415) AIR FORCE at (416) NORTHERN ILLINOIS
Actual Line: NORTHERN ILLINOIS +7.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: NORTHERN ILLINOIS -4.5
Difference: 12, FAVOR – NORTHERN ILLINOIS
9. (333) ILLINOIS and (334) MICHIGAN STATE
Actual Line: MICHIGAN STATE +2.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: MICHIGAN STATE +14.1
Difference: 11.6, FAVOR – ILLINOIS
10. (311) MISSOURI STATE at (312) WESTERN KENTUCKY
Actual Line: WESTERN KENTUCKY -2.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: WESTERN KENTUCKY +8.6
Difference: 11.1, FAVOR – MISSOURI STATE
11. (337) TULANE and (338) ARMY
Actual Line: ARMY -3
Effective Play-by-Play Line: ARMY +7.3
Difference: 10.3, FAVOR – TULANE
12. (323) WASHINGTON STATE at (324) UTAH STATE
Actual Line: UTAH STATE -5.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: UTAH STATE -15.4
Difference: 9.9, FAVOR – UTAH STATE
13. (309) SAM HOUSTON STATE at (310) LIBERTY
Actual Line: LIBERTY -13.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: LIBERTY -4.1
Difference: 9.4, FAVOR – SAM HOUSTON STATE
14. (351) ARIZONA and (352) WEST VIRGINIA
Actual Line: WEST VIRGINIA +3
Effective Play-by-Play Line: WEST VIRGINIA +11.8
Difference: 8.8, FAVOR – ARIZONA
15. (361) OLD DOMINION in (362) APPALACHIAN STATE
Actual Line: APPALACHIAN STATE -9.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: APPALACHIAN STATE -18.3
Difference: 8.8, FAVOR – APPALACHIAN STATE
16. (379) BALL STATE at (380) NORTHWESTERN
Actual Line: NORTHWESTERN -36.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: NORTHWESTERN -45.1
Difference: 8.6, FAVOR – North west
17. (383) UAB and (384) MEMPHIS
Actual Line: MEMPHIS -14
Effective Play-by-Play Line: MEMPHIS -22.5
Difference: 8.5, FAVOR – MEMPHIS
18. (353) EASTERN MICHIGAN and (354) AKRON
Actual Line: AKRON +7
Effective Play-by-Play Line: AKRON -1.2
Difference: 8.2, FAVOR – AKRON
19. (319) IOWA at (320) WASHINGTON
Actual Line: WASHINGTON -3
Effective Play-by-Play Line: WASHINGTON +5.1
Difference: 8.1, FAVOR – IOWA
20. (357) SYRACUSE and (358) VIRGINIA
Actual Line: VIRGINIA -9.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: VIRGINIA -2.3
Difference: 7.2, FAVOR – SYRACUSE
21. (389) HAWAII and (390) ARIZONA STATE
Actual Line: ARIZONA STATE -20.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: ARIZONA STATE -27.7
Difference: 7.2, FAVOR – ARIZONA STATE
22. (417) BOISE STATE at (418) FRESNO STATE
Actual Line: FRESNO STATE +6.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: FRESNO STATE -0.7
Difference: 7.2, FAVOR – FRESNO STATE
23. (349) LSU and (350) KENTUCKY
Actual Line: KENTUCKY +8.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: KENTUCKY +1.6
Difference: 6.9, FAVOR – KENTUCKY
24. (401) TULSA and (402) NAVY
Actual Line: NAVY -2.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: NAVY -9.2
Difference: 6.7, FAVORABLE – NAVY
25. (341) NORTH CAROLINA and (342) PITTSBURGH
Actual Line: PITTSBURGH -3.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: PITTSBURGH +2.9
Difference: 6.4, FAVOR – NORTH CAROLINA
26. (321) WYOMING at (322) SAN JOSE STATE
Actual Line: SAN JOSE STATE -6
Effective Play-by-Play Line: SAN JOSE STATE -11.6
Difference: 5.6, FAVOR – SAN JOSE STATE
27. (371) MIAMI OHIO and (372) MASSACHUSETTS
Actual Line: MASSACHUSETTS +2.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: MASSACHUSETTS -3.1
Difference: 5.6, FAVOR – MASSACHUSETTS
28. (347) COASTAL CAROLINA and (348) MARSHALL
Actual Line: MARSHALL -3
Effective Play-by-Play Line: MARSHALL +2.5
Difference: 5.5, FAVOR – COASTAL CAROLINA
29. (315) SOUTH FLORIDA at (316) TEXAS-SAN ANTONIO
Actual Line: TEXAS-SAN ANTONIO -7
Effective Play-by-Play Line: TEXAS-SAN ANTONIO -11.9
Difference: 4.9, FAVORABLE – TEXAS-SAN ANTONIO
30. (393) VIRGINIA TECH at (394) CALIFORNIA
Actual Line: CALIFORNIA +9.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: CALIFORNIA +4.6
Difference: 4.9, FAVOR – CALIFORNIA
31. (413) NORTH DAKOTA STATE and (414) UNLV
Actual Line: UNLV +3
Effective Play-by-Play Line: UNLV -1.9
Difference: 4.9, FAVOR – UNLV
32. (301) SOUTHERN MISS at (302) TROY
Actual Line: TROY -10
Effective Play-by-Play Line: TROY -5.2
Difference: 4.8, FAVOR – SOUTHERN MISS
33. (395) TEXAS to (396) OKLAHOMA
Actual Line: OKLAHOMA +8.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: OKLAHOMA +4.1
Difference: 4.4, FAVOR – OKLAHOMA
34. (409) STANFORD at (410) NOTRE DAME
Actual Line: NOTRE DAME -38.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: NOTRE DAME -34.2
Difference: 4.3, FAVOR – STANFORD
35. (303) JACKSONVILLE STATE at (304) KENNESAW STATE
Actual Line: KENNESAW STATE +3
Effective Play-by-Play Line: KENNESAW STATE +7.1
Difference: 4.1, FAVOR – JACKSONVILLE STATE
36. (329) SOUTH CAROLINA and (330) FLORIDA
Actual Line: FLORIDA -12.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: FLORIDA -8.5
Difference: 4, FAVOR – SOUTH CAROLINA
37. (367) MINNESOTA and (368) PURDUE
Actual Line: PURDUE +2.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: PURDUE -1.4
Difference: 3.9, FAVOR – PURDUE
38. (405) CHARLOTTE in (406) NORTH TEXAS
Actual Line: NORTH TEXAS -28.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: NORTH TEXAS -25
Difference: 3.5, FAVOR – CHARLOTTE
39. (373) JAMES MADISON and (374) GEORGIA SOUTHERN
Actual Line: GEORGIA SOUTHERN +7.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: GEORGIA SOUTHERN +4.4
Difference: 3.1, FAVOR – GEORGIA SOUTHERN
40. (327) INDIANA and (328) NEBRASKA
Actual Line: NEBRASKA +7.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: NEBRASKA +10.4
Difference: 2.9, FAVOR – INDIANA
41. (377) LOUISIANA and (378) LOUISIANA TECH
Actual Line: LOUISIANA TECH -3
Effective Play-by-Play Line: LOUISIANA TECH -5.7
Difference: 2.7, FAVOR – LOUISIANA TECH
42. (343) USC at (344) PENN STATE
Actual Line: PENN STATE -1.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: PENN STATE -4
Difference: 2.5, FAVORABLE – PENN STATE
43. (399) TENNESSEE to (400) ARKANSAS
Actual Line: ARKANSAS +13.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: ARKANSAS +11.1
Difference: 2.4, FAVORS – ARKANSAS
44. (305) NEW MEXICO STATE at (306) FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL
Actual Line: FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL -6.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL -8.8
Difference: 2.3, FAVOR – FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL
45. (359) CONNECTICUT at (360) TEMPLE
Actual Line: TEMPLE -3.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: TEMPLE -5.7
Difference: 2.2, FAVOR – TEMPLE
46. (365) DUKE and (366) GEORGIA TECH
Actual Line: GEORGIA TECH +7
Effective Play-by-Play Line: GEORGIA TECH +9.1
Difference: 2.1, FAVOR – DUKE
47. (325) IOWA STATE at (326) BYU
Actual Line: BYU -10.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: BYU -12.4
Difference: 1.9, FAVOR – BYU
48. (331) SACRAMENTO STATE at (332) BOWLING GREEN
Actual Line: BOWLING GREEN -7.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: BOWLING GREEN -5.8
Difference: 1.7, FAVOR – SACRAMENTO STATE
49. (407) HOUSTON and (408) KANSAS STATE
Actual Line: KANSAS STATE -2.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: KANSAS STATE -0.9
Difference: 1.6, FAVOR – HOUSTON
50. (363) KENT STATE at (364) WESTERN MICHIGAN
Actual Line: WESTERN MICHIGAN -13.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: WESTERN MICHIGAN -14.9
Difference: 1.4, FAVOR – WESTERN MICHIGAN
51. (385) NEVADA at (386) UTEP
Actual Line: UTEP +9.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: UTEP +10.8
Difference: 1.3, FAVOR – NEVADA
52. (387) KANSAS and (388) UTAH
Actual Line: UTAH -15.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: UTAH -16.7
Difference: 1.2, FAVOR – UTAH
53. (375) UCF at (376) OKLAHOMA STATE
Actual Line: OKLAHOMA STATE -8.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: OKLAHOMA STATE -7.5
Difference: 1, FAVOR – UCF
54. (339) MARYLAND at (340) OHIO STATE
Actual Line: OHIO STATE -34.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: OHIO STATE -33.7
Difference: 0.8, FAVOR – MARYLAND
55. (397) OLE MISS and (398) VANDERBILT
Actual Line: VANDERBILT +10
Effective Play-by-Play Line: VANDERBILT +10.8
Difference: 0.8, FAVORS – OLE MISS
56. (345) CENTRAL MICHIGAN and (346) OHIO U
Actual Line: OHIO U -3
Effective Play-by-Play Line: OHIO U -2.3
Difference: 0.7, FAVOR – CENTRAL MICHIGAN
57. (369) RICE in (370) EAST CAROLINA
Actual Line: EAST CAROLINA -10
Effective Play-by-Play Line: EAST CAROLINA -10.7
Difference: 0.7, FAVOR – EAST CAROLINA
58. (403) GEORGIA and (404) ALABAMA
Actual Line: ALABAMA -1.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: ALABAMA -1.8
Difference: 0.3, FAVORS – ALABAMA
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