The NFL MVP race finally looks like Josh Allen’s to lose.
After weeks of watching Brock Purdy try (and fail) to catch Allen at the top of the NFL MVP oddsboard, Caleb Williams and Trevor Lawrence join the shortlist of candidates with +1000 odds or better.
Joe Burrow still sits comfortably in the middle of that range after throwing for nearly 500 yards and five touchdowns (!) in an overtime win over the Tennessee Titans (?), which means there are now five quarterbacks with at least a nine percent implied probability of winning the award.
Williams was the biggest week-over-week riser, moving from +1200 t0 +800 at BetMGM after becoming the first quarterback this season to reach the 200-yard passing mark against the league-leading Seattle Seahawks. He threw for 247 and a touchdown as the Chicago Bears defeated the defending champions, 363 to 252, in Monday night’s statement win. He has averaged nearly 287 passing yards and thrown at least one touchdown with no interceptions in three games since returning from a hamstring injury that sidelined him for Weeks 3-5.
Meanwhile, Lawrence had to attempt just 14 passes as the Jacksonville Jaguars beat the Indianapolis Colts 41-7. He was incredibly efficient, completing 10 of those 14 attempts for 210 yards and three touchdowns — which, yes, means he averaged 15 yards per pass. With Lamar Jackson on injured reserve, the path to the top of the AFC becomes easier for Lawrence and the Jags.
NFL MVP odds
NFL MVP odds tracker
Below is a list of the most notable movements in the NFL MVP odds market that appear each week.
Week 7 update
Purdy threw two interceptions and just one touchdown in the 49ers’ first loss of the season to fall further behind Allen. Despite the Buffalo Bills having a bye in Week 7, Allen’s +140 odds at BetMGM are the shortest they’ve been at this point in the season.
Meanwhile, Joe Burrow cut his odds on a four-touchdown day to rise from +1300 to +450 at BetMGM — and to No. 2 on the board.
Week 6 update
A race of two people seems to be taking shape. Allen’s odds at BetMGM improved from +250 to +190 week-on-week while Purdy improved from +300 to +225.
Week 5 update
Purdy turned a blind eye to Allen’s lead, going from +2000 preseason odds that gave the 49ers quarterback a less than five percent shot to +300 odds that gave him a 25 percent implied probability.
Week 4 update
Trevor Lawrence nearly doubled his implied probability from just shy of seven percent to north of 11 percent by rising from +1400 to +800 at BetMGM in just one week, while Burrow nearly reduced his implied probability from around 10 percent to five percent after dropping from +900 to +1700.
Week 3 update
Purdy became the second favorite, moving into the +450 range with a nearly 20 percent implied probability of winning the award — a huge improvement from the preseason, when the odds gave him less than a 5 percent shot.
Week 2 update
Patrick Mahomes moved up from outside the top five in preseason MVP odds to second overall (+750 to +800) after leading the Chiefs to an overtime victory over the Colts with a vintage passing performance: 32-of-47 for 382 yards and three touchdowns with no interceptions.
Week 1 update
Caleb Williams jumps into the top three or four, depending on the book, after passing for 269 yards and scoring four total touchdowns in a 59-point season opener with odds in the +700 to +900 range.