Best Bets on College Basketball Wooden Award Futures:
For college basketball bettors currently looking to build their futures portfolios, a key strategy is to find ways to diversify them beyond national championship plays. Over the past few years, a popular way to do that has been to add Wooden Award tickets to the mix. National championships and Wooden Award futures have become a companion piece for many.
Major books continue to post the Wooden Award board earlier in the offseason, and many of the handicapping practices used for national championship bets also apply to the award, as it overwhelmingly goes to the best player on a team contending for a title.
So for those already invested in the national championship market and looking to add something else to their futures portfolios, let’s break down the Wooden Award winner field by placing the top candidates into different tiers based on their potential to take home the honor, along with their accompanying odds.
All odds courtesy of DraftKings
Tier 1 – Favorites
- Jeremy Fears Jr. (+850)
- Thomas Haugh (10-1)
- John Blackwell (12-1)
- David Mirkovic (14-1)
This year’s top tier population looks very different than last year, when only Braden Smith (+550) was listed here, as the next group of contenders, including winner Cameron Boozer (12-1), are in the 10-1 to 12-1 range. This means that these favorites offer bettors the potential for greater ROI.
Blackwell, formerly of Wisconsin and now at Duke, is the only one on this team who went portalling in the offseason.
Fears, the Michigan State guard, has the lowest odds based on his 15 PPG and 9.4 APG from a year ago. The 6-foot-2 junior manages a veteran Tom Izzo team looking to contend for a national championship.
Haugh already has one national championship on his resume, and another could be on the way. The Florida big man averaged 17.1 points last year when he was the focal point of Todd Golden’s offense. That point total should rise again with more refinement in his offensive game.
After three very productive seasons in Madison, Blackwell brings his 19.1 PPG to Duke with hopes of leading the Blue Devils to the Final Four and beyond.
Mirkovic, a major force in Illinois’ run to the Final Four last year, returns to Champaign as Brad Underwood continues to rely on the Eastern European flair of his roster.
Tier 1 breakdown: All of these candidates currently have the preseason look of a Wooden Award winner. They should all be top scoring threats for highly ranked teams with the potential to get the No. 1 seed in March.
Last year, Boozer averaged 22.5 PPG for the No. 1-seeded Blue Devils. Last season, Cooper Flagg and his 19.2 PPG led Duke to a top seed.
There should be concern about backing Fears because the demanding Izzo has never coached a Wooden Award winner. Gary Harris was a finalist in 2014 with 17.7 PPG. In order for Fears to win the award, he will definitely need to put up higher scoring numbers than Harris. However, this may be an issue based on Izzo’s team structure and the presence of Coen Carr (12.0 PPG), another award candidate.
Haugh must look like Flagg 2.0 to win the award. Like Fears, he’ll be surrounded by several veteran Gators, including Alex Condon, who is more than capable of filling the stat sheets.
Mirkovic’s case already has some issues, as he is working on a leg injury sustained in August. Reports from Illinois indicate that Mirkovic is confident about playing at the same elite level he did a year ago. However, the foot injury for a 6-foot-9 forward tends to linger.
Blackwell may be the best candidate of this group. He’s already shown the ability to score, and now at Duke, his stardom could reach even higher levels. The Blackwell campaign will benefit from media coverage wondering if Duke can produce a third straight Wooden Award winner.
The Duke and St. John’s (Chris Mullin in 1985 and Walter Berry in 1986) are the only schools with different back-to-back winners.
For Blackwell to win, he’ll need to put up similar numbers to the last group of true guards to win the award — Jalen Brunson (2018), Frank Mason (2017), and Buddy Hield (2016).
The averages for those three award-winning seasons were 21.6 PPG, 4.3 RPG, and 3.9 APG. Achieving similar numbers shouldn’t be a problem for Blackwell, who last year averaged 19.1 PPG, 5.1 RPG, and 2.3 APG.
Caleb Foster and Cayden Boozer at the point will give Blackwell plenty of room to operate.
Tier 2 – In Conversation
- Tyran Stokes (17-1)
- Tyler Tanner (21-1)
- Jordan Smith Jr. (25-1)
- Tounde Yessoufou (26-1)
- Flory Bidunga (32-1)
- Alex Condon (33-1)
- Stefan Veels (36-1)
- Caleb Holt (38-1)
- David Punch (39-1)
Tier 2 breakdown: Condon (Florida) and Vaaks (Illinois) are in the shadow of teammates with higher expectations and brand equity.
Bill Self will once again feature an elite high school prospect who should have been in Lawrence in just one season with Stokes. Unlike Boozer and Flagg, Stokes won’t get the leverage of being a hotshot freshman on a top-five team.
Jordan Smith Jr. will be another freshman stud for Arkansas.
The former player himself, Bidunga, will have a bigger offensive role now in Louisville, but probably not enough to post the numbers needed.
The most interesting option of this group is Yessoufou. The former Baylor product is in St. John’s now. The 6-foot-5 guard should score more than Connecticut’s Silas Demary Jr. and Braylon Mullins, making him the best candidate in the Northeast region.
Tier 3 – Deepen
- Silas Demary Jr. (40-1)
- Matas Vokietaitis (40-1)
- Juke Harris (40-1)
- Thijs De Ridder (42-1)
- Trey McKenney (45-1)
- Isaiah Johnson (49-1)
- Caleb Foster (50-1)
- Braylon Mullins (50-1)
- JT Toppin (50-1)
- Ivan Kharchenkov (50-1)
- Motiejs Krivas (50-1)
- Milan Momcilovic (50-1)
Tier 3 breakdown: This team features a lot of recognizable names with odds that don’t necessarily indicate they are currently true contenders for the award.
Toppin returns to Texas Tech after dealing with an ACL injury. Momcilovic made big money on the transfer portal on his way to Kentucky, but as just a shooter, he didn’t profile as a Wooden Award winner.
With this team, Vokietaitis could find himself on the watch list late in the season. The Longhorns should be a top-10 squad all year, and the 7-footer can play at the same speed and contend with Haugh as the best big man in the SEC.
Early Action
Based on recent history, a bettor building a futures portfolio should add a ticket to at least one candidate in the top tier. With the exception of Oscar Tshiebwe (40-1 odds to start the season), this is probably where the winner resides.
Consider that Blackwell player. Based on the talent around him in Duke’s system, he could reach a scoring number close to 24 points per game.
The Izzo factor and Carr could limit the Fears from making the necessary jump of five to six points per game. The same is true for Haugh playing alongside Condon.
Mirkovic’s foot injury means there is no rush to back him.
A smaller game by a long shot could also be important as the season progresses.
At 40-1, a Vokietaitis ticket offers plenty of upside.
The Longhorns could be one of the most talked about teams in college basketball this season, and if that happens, the big man could rise up the ranks of the Wooden Award powers like Johni Broome did two seasons ago.
Look Around
Of all the college basketball futures boards posted by national books, the Wooden Award offers proactive buyers the most difference between odds. For example, other than Fears being the shortest shot, what Fanatics offers is very different from DraftKings. While Blackwell is 12-1 in DK, Fanatics lists his Duke teammate Joaquim Boumtje Boumtje as the Blue Devil with the lowest odds (15-1). Blackwell on Fanatics enters at an attractive 30-1.