2026 Breeders’ Cup Distaff Picks and Entries

Breeders’ Cup Distaff 2026

A field of nine fillies and mares will hit the starting gate for the Breeders’ Cup Distaff, as Nitrogen looks to move up one spot as the favorite. In his quest to climb from second to first, he looks to have some pretty stiff competition from Fully Subscribed, Splendora, and perhaps a surprise opponent or two from the longshot group. Race 10 with a scheduled post time of 4:58 pm ET on Saturday, November 1 is part of the Late Pick 3 and also the Daily Double Special with the Breeders’ Cup Classic.

We’ve got all kinds of horse racing coverage this week from myself, Ed Sehon, and Dave Tuley, plus more handicaps from our friends at Daily Racing Form. See all here.

Here are the Breeders’ Cup Distaff post positions, horses, jockeys, trainers and odds.

It’s a top-heavy board to say the least, with horses at 6/5, 8/5, and 9/2. If the chalk runs out, the payouts will be small, but a winning ticket is still a winning ticket. Maybe a bigger price would sweeten the exotics or maybe even come out with an exacta. On the surface, though, this legitimately looks like a three-horse race.

Here are some thoughts on the horses in the BC Distaff field:

1. Immersive (30-1; Alvarado/Cox): The daughter of Nyquist and Gap Year had a monster 2024 with over $1.6 million in earnings, including a win in the BC Juvenile Fillies. He was 4-for-4 in his 2-year-old season, but didn’t return to racing until June, so he missed the Filly Triple Crown events, though he still had a win and two seconds left before wintering again. This season, he has raced five times, finishing in the top three each time, but only once at the front of the pack. He won the Fleur de Lis Stakes in June and was third behind Splendora and Yes It Tix and third behind Fully Subscribed and Counting Stars to Locust Grove and Spinster, respectively. He has been a strong, consistent horse, but some rain in the forecast on Saturday will help him. He won the Fleur de Lis on mud, but he couldn’t keep up on a fast track with the rest of this field.

2. Nitrogen (6/5; J. Ortiz/Casse): Nitrogen has never missed the board in 18 starts, winning nine times. She has more than $3 million in earnings and the daughter of Medaglia d’Oro and Tiffany Case is favored to get some extra hay from her trainer in this one. After starting on turf, his win in the G2 Wonder Again at Saratoga opened all kinds of doors. The 4-year-old Bay has run just once on Keeneland dirt, a runner-up to Gin Gin in last year’s Spinster Stakes. He shipped to Del Mar and finished second to Scylla in last year’s BC Distaff before cooling off at Oaklawn Park. He’s had three monster dirt runs this year, winning Ogden Phipps and Beldame by one second over the boys at Whitney. He did run nearly five lengths behind the winner Sovereignty, but had a rough start out of the gate for John Velazquez there. Jose Ortiz got the mount here. He has ridden all five of his wins.

3. Regaled (20-1; Ramos/Beckman): The 5-year vet of 24 races is another who could use mud. He hit the board in 13 of 24 races with five wins, but seemed to enjoy the slop more than his opponents. He ran third in the Distaff at Del Mar last year and just won the Delaware Handicap on Oct. 3 over a sloppy surface. He was second in Fleur de Lis to Immersive. As one of the few close ones in this fast race, he has a chance to get on the board late, even with no threat of rain as of Thursday afternoon.

4. Fully Subscribed (8/5; Prat/Brown): Flavien Prat has arguably the most important ride here. He will look to sit in the pocket with Tiz the Law’s daughter and Sweetbaby and he will need to flip the switch at the right time. We’ve seen a lot of flashes and we’ve seen three of them in a row from Fully Subscribed, when he won the Shuvee, Personal Ensign, and Spinster right here at Keeneland, a big 1 ⅛-mile prep for this race. He also finished second to Ogden Phipps on Nitrogen at similar odds…except he finished second by nearly 13 lengths. He’ll have a hard time coming off the exactas and trifectas, but closing a big gap after four months is a big ask. Prat has been his rider for a long time, however, so he should be ready.

5. Scottish Lassie (15-1; Saez/Abreu): Is the Scottish Lassie the most overlooked horse in this field? The daughter of McKinzie and Bodebabe did not start for this season until June, coming off the shelf to win an allowance race. He was then second at Saratoga in Shuvee and Personal Ensign. We’re talking about a horse that was third in the Acorn and won the Coaching Club American Oaks that ran away as a 3-year-old. We just don’t know what we’re going to get, but he’s one of the more interesting big prices in my eyes.

6. Size (20-1; Franco/Casse): Mark Casse’s other forays into the field have been less heralded. Many times, a trainer will enter two horses in the same field because they have complementary running styles, such as setting the right kind of pace or being physical enough to open up the field. Measure, however, is a deep closer with no other top speed in this event. He is one of only two 3-year-olds in the field, and he is competing in class against older horses. He has yet to win a graded stakes, but he has finished third, second, and third in three G1 races this year. I think Casse may have a late bloomer on her hands and a filly to watch as a 4-year-old. There’s probably no one to watch here.

7. Super Runner (15-1; Rosario/Sadler): Another 3-year-old in the field is from California for John Sadler. The Zenyatta Stakes winner came off the shelf after almost seven months off to win that race before being sent east. She won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies at Del Mar on Halloween. But, those two wins were his only monster showing of life. Sadler and the connections felt strong enough to make the expensive trip to Lexington. I wouldn’t be surprised if he was with her. I wouldn’t be surprised if he wasn’t there. I’d be surprised if he didn’t pay in some good California purses as a 4 year old.

8. Splendora (9/2; Gaffalione/Baffert): The only Maryland-bred, and only non-Kentucky-bred, in the field had an interesting post draw. There are many pacesetters and pace-pushers here. If he can avoid being boxed out by Super Corredora, he can get out front without getting bumped and grinded on the inside. If Prat doesn’t have the most important rider here, it’s Tyler Gaffalione. Splendora has never won at 1 ⅛ miles. The son of Audible and Miss Freeze was in the Breeders’ Cup last year, but won the Filly & Mare Sprint. Since then, though, he’s had no issues at 1 1/16, winning three straight races this year at that distance. He was second in the Santa Maria Stakes at Santa Anita in April 2025 in his only start at 1 ⅛. Gaffalione has a great horse. He needs a good ride to match his talent.

9. Eunomia (30-1; Wife/Joseph): The far outside pole belongs to an interesting filly. The daughter of Tiz the Law and maternal granddaughter of American Pharoah ran her first stakes race this year as a 4-year-old. He won two of them, including a G1 mark in August’s Clement L. Hirsch Stakes at Del Mar. He has run everywhere, including several starts at Keeneland. This was his first attempt at 1 ⅛ miles. On the surface, he looks overmatched, and the odds suggest as much. Sometimes, a horse just needs to settle down, as evidenced by his history of sprints, dirt, turf, and missing the board in many allowance races.

Another thing that intrigues me is how many runs he’s had in his career. He ran four times in 3.5 months as a 2-year-old and seven times in eight months as a 3-year-old. When he won the Hirsch, it was his first race in 11 weeks. That kind of layoff was unheard of before. He’s on a pretty similar schedule here.

Breeders’ Cup Distaff Picks

Full disclosure, I would have a very long ticket on Eunomia to win, wondering if perhaps this excellent horse has found his way and the right schedule.

But, this is Nitrogen’s absolute race to beat. His impressive effort against the men followed by another win against the women cemented it for me, especially with Jose Ortiz back in the stands.

I’m debating whether I want to throw Eunomia in some exactas and trifectas to increase the price, as I’m not convinced by Splendora and Fully Subscribed. I prefer Fully Subscribed to Splendora, though.

2 Nitrogen

4 Fully Subscribed

9 Eunomia

8 Splendora

For more coverage, see our horse racing page.