Box scores lie. Usage tells the truth.
We dug into the playing time, routes, carries, and targets behind the fantasy points to identify the biggest buy-low opportunities, sell-high candidates, and rankings movers.
Here are the seven biggest fantasy takeaways from Week 7 usage.
1. Game Script Explains the Rams’ Backfield Roller Coaster
| Share of Backfield Expected Points When Leading or Tied | 59.4% | 40.6% |
| Share of Backfield Expected Points When Trailing | 75.5% | 21.0% |
I don’t wanna say I’ve solved the Rams backfield … but I think I’ve solved the Rams backfield.
I wrote about Kyren Williams’ workhorse usage after Week 4, when he’d out-touched Blake Corum 47 to 14 over the previous 2 games. Williams then out-touched Corum 22 to 8 in Week 5.
But the gap has tightened significantly over the last 2 weeks: 31 touches for Williams to 29 for Corum.
What changed? Game script.
The Rams trailed for 63% of their offensive snaps between Weeks 3-5. They’ve trailed for just 31% over the last 2 games, including 0% this past week, when Corum matched Williams with 18 touches.
Game script has been the driver of touch distribution in the Rams’ backfield this season. Williams has dominated opportunities when trailing, with a 75.5% share of the backfield’s expected fantasy points, which would rank ninth among RBs this season. Corum’s 21.0% would rank 73rd.
It’s been much closer to an even split when the Rams are tied or leading. Williams’ 59.4% in those situations would rank just 26th among RBs; Corum’s 40.6% would rank 43rd.
In total, the Rams have trailed on 48.7% of their snaps so far this season. That’s the 13th-highest mark in the league.
Their next 3 games look particularly good for positive game script. The Rams get the Chargers, Commanders, and Cardinals, who have combined for 3 wins. Then comes a Week 11 bye before a much tougher slate down the stretch:
- vs. Packers
- vs. Chiefs
- at 49ers
- vs. Cowboys
- at Seattle
- at Buccaneers
Fantasy impact
We typically want our RBs playing with leads. That’s certainly true for Corum, but Williams has been much more valuable when the Rams have trailed this season. He belongs in starting lineups regardless of game script, though he’ll have more upside in competitive games. Corum looks startable as a RB3 or flex over the next 3 weeks, but he could turn into a sell candidate ahead of the Rams’ tough closing stretch.
2. That Was Quick: Jonah Coleman Takes Backfield Lead
| Snap Rate | 49.2% | 23.0% | 26.2% |
| Route Rate | 25.7% | 5.7% | 25.7% |
| Carry Share | 34.6% | 23.1% | 11.5% |
| Target Share | 8.0% | 0.0% | 8.0% |
We’ve been pimping Jonah Coleman as a fantasy stash for a few weeks now, in anticipation of his Week 7 return from a high-ankle sprain. That return was even more bullish than we expected.
The rookie immediately led Denver’s backfield in snaps and carries and tied R.J. Harvey for the lead in routes and targets.
It’s worth noting that 4 of Coleman’s 9 carries came with Denver nursing a multi-scoring lead in the fourth quarter. Coleman and J.K. Dobbins both carried 5 times over the first 3 quarters.
It’s too early to say the rookie has definitively taken over this backfield, but it sure seems to be trending that way. Coleman is leading Dobbins and Harvey in virtually every meaningful rushing metric, including:
- Yards per carry
- Rush yards over expected per attempt
- Success rate
- Explosive run rate
Fantasy impact
Coleman is a high-priority add if still available in your league. He draws a tough Chiefs defense in Week 8 but gets the league’s easiest RB schedule from Week 9 on. The rookie could be a top-25 fantasy RB over the second half of the season.
3. Is KC Concepcion’s Breakout For Real?
| Total Targets | 23rd |
| Target Share | 25th |
| Expected PPR Points Per Game | 41st |
| Actual PPR Points Per Game | 51st |
I wrote about KC Concepcion’s full-time role after Week 3. That role has held over the 4 games since, and the big production came in Week 7.
Let’s pump the brakes on Concepcion as a breakout player, though.
He’s leading but not dominating Cleveland’s passing game, ranking 25th among WRs in target share since Week 3.
And he’s still getting relatively low-value targets. His 7.6-yard average target depth over the last 5 games ranks 95th among 110 qualifying WRs. (He’s at 6.7 for the season.) Despite the low aDOT, his 76% catchable target rate ranks just 67th since Week 3.
QB Deshaun Watson has played better than expected so far, but this still isn’t a great situation for WR production. Cleveland ranks 23rd in pass attempts per game and 24th in pass yards per game.
Fantasy impact
We should always take notice when a rookie pops like Concepcion just did. He certainly has the talent to emerge as a fantasy difference maker. But his situation remains rough for fantasy production. Concepcion’s WR41 ranking in expected PPR points per game over the last 5 weeks is a good proxy for his value going forward.
4. Chase Brown Keeps the Work, Wastes the Opportunity
| Snap Rate | 75.5% | 22.6% |
| Route Rate | 58.8% | 17.6% |
| Carry Share | 55.0% | 20.0% |
| Target Share | 17.9% | 0.0% |
Good news: Chase Brown was back in his typical role against the Bengals after ceding more work to Samaje Perine in the previous game. Brown’s 75.5% snap rate and 58.8% route rate were in line with his marks from Weeks 1 through 5.
Perine got the backfield’s only carry inside the 5-yard line, punching in a 1-yard TD in the fourth quarter. But Brown played 2 of 3 snaps inside the 5 and 5 of 6 snaps inside the 10, so it doesn’t seem like he’s lost the goal-line role.
The bad news is that Brown struggled on the ground again, mustering just 3.5 yards per carry. He’s now failed to top 3.5 yards per carry in 4 of 6 games and is averaging 3.5 yards per carry on the season. That ranks 32nd among 39 RBs with 50+ attempts. Brown also ranks in the bottom half of that group in rush yards over expected per attempt, yards after contact per attempt, and missed tackles forced per attempt.
Brown ranks 13th among RBs in expected PPR points per game but just 20th in actual points. That makes him the biggest underachiever among those 39 RBs with 50+ carries.
Fantasy impact
Brown’s usage, particularly in the passing game, is keeping him inside RB2 territory. He deserves to lose work going forward, but Cincinnati doesn’t really have a better option barring a trade. We’ll see if the team makes a move ahead of the November 10 deadline. If not, I’d bet on Brown continuing to produce as a volume-based RB2.
5. Colston Loveland is Back
| Route Rate | 12th |
| Target Share | 4th |
| Expected PPR Points Per Game | 6th |
| Actual PPR Points Per Game | 8th |
After a surprisingly quiet start to the season, Colston Loveland has gotten back on track over the last 4 weeks, ranking top-8 among TEs in target share, expected points per game, and actual points per game. He’s been even better with QB Caleb Williams back the past 2 games, ranking 2nd in both expected and actual points.
Loveland’s route rate is still lagging a bit, although it could get a boost now that TE Cole Kmet is done for the season with a knee injury. Loveland had run a route on 37% of pass plays through 6 games.
Any additional routes for Loveland would be huge. He ranks 3rd among 37 qualifying TEs in targets per route (0.28) over the last 4 weeks.
Fantasy impact
Congrats if you held or, better yet, bought low on Loveland during his slow start to the season. Brock Bowers, Trey McBride, and George Kittle are the only TEs I’d rather have the rest of the way.
6. What’s Up With Nico Collins?
| Week 1 | 87.5% | 27.0% |
| Week 4 | 86.5% | 30.8% |
| Week 5 | 82.1% | 21.2% |
| Week 6 | 82.5% | 15.6% |
| Week 7 | 83.3% | 17.9% |
Collins opened the season with WR8 and WR3 PPR finishes. In his last 3 games: WR33, WR33, and WR73.
The usage has declined with the production. Collins has drawn just 18.3% of Houston’s targets over the last 3 weeks after registering a 26.1% share over his first 2 games.
He’s failed to hit an 18% target share in 2 straight outings. That happened in just 7 of 37 healthy games (19%) over the previous 3 seasons.
Collins’ target shares in healthy games those years:
- 2023: 22.1%
- 2024: 26.3%
- 2025: 23.8%
The volume dip over the last 2 weeks coincides with WR Marvin Harrison’s arrival and WR Jaylin Noel’s emergence. Harrison has drawn 8 targets on just 16 routes over that span and should see more playing time going forward. Noel, though, went down with turf toe last week and will likely miss time.
Fantasy impact
Collins might not return to his 2024 or even 2025 target share. But he’s still a good bet to lead Houston in targets. And any loss in target share should be offset by a more voluminous and productive Texans passing game. They rank 11th in pass attempts per game and 8th in pass yards per game. I’m still viewing Collins as a low-end WR1 and would be willing to buy for a WR2 price.
7. Dylan Sampson’s Return Makes Quinshon Judkins a Sell
| Snap Rate | 61.0% | 52.9% |
| Route Rate | 35.2% | 26.8% |
| Carry Share | 57.9% | 58.6% |
| Target Share | 13.5% | 2.9% |
Week 7 gave us our first look at a healthy Browns backfield this season. And, not surprisingly, Dylan Sampson’s return put a dent in Quinshon Judkins’ role.
Judkins maintained a clear lead in early-down snaps and carries. But Sampson took over primary passing-down duties, pacing the backfield in routes (39.0%) and targets (8.6%).
That’s a big deal for Judkins. He averaged 5.6 receiving PPR points per game over the first 5 weeks, accounting for 49.6% of his total fantasy production.
Judkins scored just 1.8 PPR points through the passing game in Week 7. He delivered his best fantasy line of the season thanks to 96 yards and 2 scores on the ground. But I’m not counting on that level of production going forward. Judkins averaged 44.2 rushing yards on 3.0 yards per carry over his first 5 games.
Fantasy impact
Judkins just scored his most fantasy points of the season, despite his second-fewest expected points and season lows in route rate and target share. That makes him a prime sell candidate if you can find a leaguemate who views him as anything more than a low-end RB2.
Put These Usage Trends to Work in Week 8
Spotting a role change is only useful if it helps you make your next lineup decision.
Who deserves a starting spot? Who belongs on your bench? And which close calls just got easier?
Our Week 8 fantasy football rankings turn these usage trends into start/sit advice so you can set your strongest lineup.