- Brock Purdy gets a favorable matchup against Washington’s blitz: Purdy ranks second among quarterbacks with an 88.5 PFF grade and faces a Commanders defense that ranks 26th in EPA allowed per pass play.
- George Kittle and Jayden Daniels offer passing-game opportunities: Kittle leads San Francisco in targets against the blitz, while Daniels could see increased passing volume as Washington enters as a 7.5-point underdog.
- Christian McCaffrey anchors the touchdown pick: McCaffrey has scored in 11 straight games as San Francisco has been favored and accounted for 50% of the 49ers’ red-zone touches this season.
The San Francisco 49ers and Washington Commanders close out Week 6 on Monday Night Football. Washington’s aggressive blitzing defense creates a favorable matchup for Brock Purdy and George Kittle, while the Commanders may be forced into a pass-heavy approach as 7.5-point underdogs.
Monday Night Football Same Game Parlay (+435)
QB Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers: 250+ passing yards (-116)
Brock Purdy has surpassed 250 passing yards in two of his past three games and continues to play at an MVP-caliber level, ranking second among quarterbacks in PFF grade (88.5) this season. Washington’s defense ranks 27th in passing success rate allowed and 26th in EPA allowed per pass play. The Commanders rank 24th in pressure rate despite having the third-highest blitz rate in the NFL.
That aggressive approach could play right into Purdy’s hands, as he ranks third in completion percentage against the blitz and leads the league in touchdown passes against extra rushers.
THE George Kittle, San Francisco 49ers: 5+ receptions (-196)
Purdy’s passing yards prop provides a natural transition to his top target against the blitz, George Kittle. As mentioned earlier, the Commanders often carry extra rushers but struggle to generate consistent pressure, and Kittle has been San Francisco’s most targeted pass-catcher against the blitz this season. Washington also allows 6.4 receptions per game to tight ends, ninth most in the NFL, setting up a favorable matchup for Kittle.
QB Jayden Daniels, Washington Commanders: 30+ pass attempts (-155)
The Commanders enter this matchup as 7.5-point underdogs, suggesting they can play from behind and rely more on their passing game. Washington will also lose leading rusher Jacory Croskey-Merritt, who could potentially create more opportunities through the air.
The 49ers are eighth-lowest in the NFL in time of possession, which could give Washington plenty of opportunities to throw. Additionally, the Commanders’ defense ranks first in EPA allowed per rushing play, making it difficult for San Francisco to establish the run and control the clock if it builds a lead.
RB Christian McCaffrey, San Francisco 49ers: Anytime touchdown (-265)
Christian McCaffrey has scored a touchdown in 11 consecutive games as the 49ers have been favored. McCaffrey led San Francisco with 50% of the team’s red-zone touches this season and converted those opportunities into five touchdowns. The 49ers’ offensive line is also good at creating running lanes, helping San Francisco rank third in the NFL in rushing yards before contact, averaging 1.8 yards per attempt.