Week 3 shook up the PFM board. Washington beat Seattle without Jayden Daniels, Chicago handled Philadelphia with Case Keenum and Kansas City moved to 3-0 and took the No. 1 spot. New England, Green Bay and Houston went the other way after losses that exposed different problems.
PFM’s Latest Rank Changes page tracks every update to the ratings. This article focuses on the biggest ups and downs from the September 29 update by PFM Team Scorewhile also showing where each team moved in the 1-through-32 rankings.
Point movement and rank movement are split again. Washington posted the largest Team Score gain and moved up three spots. Green Bay fell six spots, the biggest ranking drop of the six, while New England took the biggest hit to its Team Score.
Week 4 snapshot: These moves compare PFM’s Sept. 22 Week 3 update to the Sept. 29 Week 4 update. The entire board remains available in the 2026 PFM NFL Team Rankings.
A useful distinction: Green Bay’s six-spot fall was the biggest rank move among these six teams, but New England lost by more Team Score. Washington led the risers by scoring, while Kansas City’s smaller gain was enough to move the Chiefs to No.
1. Washington Wins Without Jayden Daniels, and the Defense Finally Takes the Ball Away
Biggest riser · +2.1 · No. 21 to No. 18
Week 3 Score 76.8
Week 4 Score 78.9
Week 3 Result: 33-31 vs. SEA
Washington enters Week 3 0-2 without Jayden Daniels, who is working his way back from a dislocated left elbow, and drew the defending Super Bowl champion Seahawks. Marcus Mariota didn’t have to match Sam Darnold throw for throw. He needs to protect the football and cash in on the extra possessions that Washington’s defense is finally creating.
Mariota threw for 183 yards and three touchdowns without an interception, while Terry McLaurin caught six passes for 77 yards and a score. Seattle outgained Washington 437-258, but the Commanders won the turnover battle 3-0. Kain Medrano’s late pick-six turned the biggest of those mistakes into points.
PFM moved Washington from 76.8 to 78.9 and from No. 21 to No. 18. The yardage gap keeps it from looking like a complete turnaround, but the Commanders just beat an elite opponent with their backup quarterback. Daniels is also expected to return to practice in some capacity this week, giving Washington another reason to feel better than it did after the Dallas loss.
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2. Chicago Has Only Won 20 With Its Third-String Quarterback
Riser · +1.5 · No. 12 to No. 10
Week 3 Score 81.7
Week 4 Score 83.2
Week 3 Result: 27-7 vs. PHI
Chicago is out Caleb Williams, who is out with a Grade 2 right hamstring strain, and Tyson Bagent just came out of the concussion protocol the day before the game. So Case Keenum made his first regular-season appearance since 2023 against a 2-0 Philadelphia team. The Bears didn’t ask him to live the night. They control it.
Keenum completed 24 of 34 passes for 247 yards and two touchdowns, then added a rushing score. Chicago’s defense forced three turnovers, held Jalen Hurts to 153 passing yards and opened the second half with three straight three-and-outs. The Bears won 27-7 and never made the play into a scramble that could have been the quarterback.
The win pushed Chicago from 81.7 to 83.2 and from No. 12 to No. 10. Williams’ hamstring still determines how high this offense can go, but Week 3 showed that Ben Johnson can get through a short-term quarterback problem when the defense and running game give the offense room to operate.
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3. Kansas City is 3-0 and Back at No. 1
Riser · +1.3 · No. 2 to No. 1
Week 3 Score 89.3
Week 4 Score 90.6
Week 3 Result: 24-10 at MIA
Kansas City is back where PFM expected it to be: undefeated and sitting at No. 1. The Chiefs didn’t hold Miami to 500 yards or a big first half. They won in the moments that decided the game.
Patrick Mahomes completed 20 of 24 passes for 246 yards and two touchdowns. Kenneth Walker III scored on the ground and through the air, Nohl Williams broke up a fourth-down pass with Miami within a point and Travis Kelce finished the job with an 11-yard touchdown late in the fourth quarter.
PFM moved Kansas City from 89.3 to 90.6, enough to pass Seattle for the top spot. The Chiefs were out-possessed and finished with five more total yards than Miami, so it wasn’t a statistical blowout. It’s another example of Mahomes and Andy Reid finding enough answers to end a game without giving an opponent the extra offense it needs.
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4. New England’s Depth Problems Show Up All At Once
Biggest fall · -2.2 · No. 8 to No. 12
Week 3 Score 84.1
Week 4 Score 81.9
Week 3 Result: 6-35 at JAX
New England’s 20-3 win over Pittsburgh looks like a step forward. A week later in Jacksonville, the Patriots put most of it back.
The yardage was nearly even, 317-315 in New England’s favor, but the game was not. Drake Maye threw two interceptions, the Patriots turned the ball over three times and Jacksonville scored 35 points. Travis Hunter’s end-zone interception kept New England from finishing one of its best first-half chances, and the Jaguars scored two third-quarter touchdowns in an 18-second span to blow the game open.
PFM dropped the Patriots from 84.1 to 81.9 and from No. 8 to No. 12. Injuries are part of the context: New England played without AJ Brown, Mike Onwenu, Dre’Mont Jones, Craig Woodson and Eli Raridon. But a roster that carries so many absences also can’t give up three possessions and expect to look like a top-10 team.
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5. Green Bay rolled at home
Faller · -2.0 · No. 11 to No. 17
Week 3 Score 81.8
Week 4 Score 79.8
Week 3 Result: 14-35 vs. ATL
Green Bay’s loss was not subtle. Atlanta went to Lambeau Field and pushed the Packers for most of the night.
The Falcons ran for 242 yards while Green Bay finished with 17. Bijan Robinson had 194 rushing yards and two touchdowns, Drake London added 194 receiving yards and Atlanta held the ball for more than 37 minutes. Jordan Love threw 53 passes as the Packers couldn’t stay off balance, and four first-half possessions ended in three-and-outs.
PFM moved Green Bay from 81.8 to 79.8 and from No. 11 to No. 17, the biggest rank drop among the six moves this week. Love still threw for 312 yards, and Christian Watson and Matthew Golden both played downfield. The bigger concern is what happens when the run game goes away and the defense can’t get the ball back quickly enough to prevent the offense from going into chase mode.
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6. Houston Had a Plus-Three Turnover Margin and Still Lost
Faller · -1.5 · No. 13 to No. 15
Week 3 Score 81.3
Week 4 Score 79.8
Week 3 Results: 17-19 at IND
Houston got the kind of turnover advantage that usually saves an ugly offensive day. It’s still not enough.
The Texans finished plus-three in turnovers against Indianapolis and never gave the ball away, but they managed just 223 total yards. CJ Stroud threw for 167 yards, and Houston needed a late Woody Marks touchdown to take a 17-16 lead before Spencer Shrader’s 53-yard field goal won it for the Colts with seconds left.
PFM moved Houston from 81.3 to 79.8 and from No. 13 to No. 15. The defense kept the games coming, but the offense struggled against an Indianapolis group that allowed 1,209 yards through the first two weeks. An 0-3 team can’t keep asking the defense to make all its margins.
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What Week 3 Really Changed for PFM
Risers win in three different ways. Washington stole possessions and got solid quarterback play from Mariota. Chicago defeated a strong Philadelphia team with Keenum and a defense that controlled the second half. Kansas City remained undefeated and took the No. 1 without needing a perfect afternoon from Mahomes.
The falls are also different. New England’s depth and turnover problems turned into a 29-point loss. Green Bay lost control at the line of scrimmage. Houston squandered a plus-three turnover margin because the offense didn’t generate enough yards.
Three games still won’t be enough to throw away everything PFM believed in in August, but the evidence weighs heavily in the regular season. Week 3 rewarded teams that found a different way to win and punished teams whose recurring weaknesses resurfaced.
See every Week 4 change, not just the six biggest moves.