In the Week 4 edition of “Monday Night Football,” the New Orleans Saints host the Atlanta Falcons.
New Orleans is coming off a loss to the Las Vegas Raiders last week that dropped the Saints to 1-2. The Saints turned the ball over four times in the game and Kirk Cousins and Brock Bowers carved up the other side of the ball. New Orleans lost running back Travis Etienne to injured reserve in that game as well. The Saints are now looking to bounce back at home.
Atlanta is coming off its first win of the season, a demolition of the Green Bay Packers in Michael Penix Jr.’s first start of the year. Bijan Robinson and Drake London were both on fire for Green Bay, with 194 yards on the ground and through the air, respectively. The Falcons aren’t looking to get back to .500 after a terrible start to the year, with Cooper Rush filling in under center.
Will the Saints bounce back, or will the Falcons make it two in a row? We will find out soon enough. Before we break down the match, here’s a look at how you can watch the game.
Where to watch live Saints vs. Falcons
When the Falcons have the ball
The Falcons didn’t make a trip into the red zone in their first two games of the season, and they totaled just 524 yards in those two contests. Then they came out in Week 3 and absolutely stomped on Green Bay’s defense, piling up 498 yards on “Thursday Night Football” — 256 through the air and 242 on the ground. They did all that while recovering from a game-opening interception by Michael Penix Jr., who made his first start of the year after returning from his latest knee injury.
New Orleans’ defense, meanwhile, has been lit up by more than 30 points in two of its three games this season — 31 by the Lions and 35 by the Raiders. The Saints, however, held the Ravens to 17 points in the other game and dealt with poor field position by opponents in the two games in which they were tagged, thanks to a combined seven turnovers on offense. New Orleans’ opponents have started their average drive at the 34.8-yard line, the third closest to the end zone of any team in the league.
The most intriguing matchup to watch in this one might be the one between Falcons wideout Drake London and Saints cornerback Kool-Aid McKinstry. London had just six catches for 80 yards in the first two games of the season with Cooper Rush under center, but he went for nine catches and 194 yards against Green Bay last week. London has had a monster target share in games where Penix has started, and he’s clearly the top target for the lefty signal-caller.
McKinstry isn’t a corner who only plays on one side of the field; his snaps are almost evenly split between left and right cornerback, and I’d probably expect him to go after London every time he lines up on the perimeter. The Falcons would do well to line up London in the slot more often than usual, as McKinstry has yet to play a snap in the slot this season, according to Pro Football Focus. Moving London inside will produce more beneficial matchups.
Of course, Atlanta’s offense is still based around Bijan Robinson in the backfield. Robinson is averaging a career-best 5.3 yards per carry this season, thanks to his 29 carries for 194 yards and two touchdowns a week ago. The Falcons were clocked for an average of 4.7 yards per run at running back, according to Tru Media, the fourth-worst mark in the NFL.
When the Saints have the ball
Tyler Shough led the NFL in completions through the first three weeks of the year. Shough is 91 of 132 (68.9%) for 917 yards (6.9 per attempt), eight touchdowns and three interceptions so far. He did most of his work in the second half as the Saints struggled to come back from deficits: He was just 32 of 53 for 278 yards, two touchdowns and an interception before the break, while he was 59 of 79 for 639 yards, six touchdowns and two picks after it.
The Falcons rank a staggering first in the league in pressure rate so far this season, generating a sack, hit or rush on 45.2% of opponent dropbacks, according to Tru Media. They are expected to have one of the worst pass rushes in the NFL entering the year in the absence of both Jalon Walker (injury) and James Pearce Jr. (suspension), but instead, guys like Gervon Dexter (10), Brandon Dorlus (eight), Cameron Thomas (eight) and Samson Ebukam (seven) are chasing it up front.
The Saints haven’t done much in the way of success running the ball, and will be without Travis Etienne after that, as he’s on injured reserve. Alvin Kamara and Kendre Miller are expected to share the load in the backfield with Etienne, though CJ Donaldson could also be involved. Kamara has been extremely ineffective on the ground for several years, but he is at least a threat as a pass-catcher. Miller has just 140 carries in his career and averages just under 4.0 yards per attempt.
Prediction
The Falcons looked better last week against the Packers, thanks in large part to the return of Michael Penix Jr. They haven’t been in the red zone in the first two weeks of the season, then dropped 35 points to the Packers in Week 3. The Saints, meanwhile, could be 3-0 today if not for backbreaking turnovers. They have two fumbles on one possession, both in games where they turned it over at least three times. If they can avoid giving the ball to the Falcons, I think they can win a close one here.
Prediction: Saints 23, Falcons 20