The Minnesota Vikings return home to US Bank Stadium to face the Buffalo Bills in a rematch of the most memorable regular-season game in years: a thrilling 33-30 overtime road win in 2022.
Will the Vikings repeat their magic on Monday Night? Hey, can you believe it’s November? Time sure flies, doesn’t it?
There’s nothing to say that I didn’t cover a few days ago. To be honest, I’m tired of everything. Sitting here in Week 9, still sorting out this mess, is really an indictment of Kevin O’Connell and the entire offensive staff. Things need to be fixed, and fast.
The Kurt Warner film breakdown video below has been doing the rounds here on DN and on social media for the past few days. In retrospect, Kyler Murray made some great plays, but he missed too many opportunities. It hasn’t been enough, especially with the poor defense he’s facing. Per ESPN’s Bill Barnwell, Murray’s 44.9 QBR through Week 8 ranks just 26th when adjusted for the cupcake units he faces. In true Vikings fashion, the schedule was set up nicely for the offense to find its rhythm before things got tougher, and we flushed the opportunity down the toilet. The last time we faced anything resembling a “good” defense was the Tampa Bay Buccaneers five weeks ago.
As I write this, it’s official: Kevin O’Connell announced that Carson Wentz will start Monday night in place of the injured Murray. Max Brosmer will be the backup. Hmmm. Oh, I’ll just say it: If Wentz plays well, barring injury or trade, he’ll remain the starter. I believe the KOC may have said otherwise, but I can present, as Exhibit 1A, past statements about young quarterbacks and a fella named JJ McCarthy.
Wentz should be an upgrade during his season in the system, given his proven ability to move the ball well. He passed for over 300 yards twice in four starts last year before KOC famously threw him out there against the Chargers in Week 8, uttering Ivan Drago’s famous words: “If he dies, he dies.”
Of course, he’s also played two games for us this year, going 23-for-39 (59%) for 276 yards (7.08 avg), 3 TDs, and 0 INTs (although some possible plays have been ruled out). That’s good for a 106.4 QB rating. That was…okay, but he had to do more if he was the man from here. Unlike Murray, he has a proven track record of getting the ball to Justin Jefferson, at least. So that’s one thing. Jefferson no doubt smiled upon hearing the news.
Enter the Buffalo Bills, and, will you look at it, another weak defense for what we could potentially step on with a rake. Yippee. They rank 23rd in EPA/game, 24th in points allowed (25.9), 24th in total yards allowed (352.1), and 30th in passing yards allowed (254.7). They’re better against the run (10th), but that may be more about how easily teams pass against them.
Wentz should have opportunities against a porous Bills pass defense, so for goodness sake, let’s hope we see some life. The fans need it, and, more importantly, an over-stressed defense needs it. The pressure to hold teams under 20 to have any chance at winning games, thanks to an offense channeling leather-helmet-era output, has to take its toll.
Brian Flores and company face what could be their toughest challenge yet in containing Josh Allen and the Bills offense. The Lions are good, but Allen’s mobility and ability to extend plays adds a tremendous challenge. While he may not be Jahmyr Gibbs, James Cook III is no slouch, averaging 5.1 yards per carry and 101 yards per game. Their receiving corps is solid, if unspectacular. Khalil Shakir, Keon Coleman, and old Viking nemesis DJ Moore lead the wideouts, while tight end Dalton Kincaid leads the Bills in receiving yards per game (57.3) and could be a real red-zone threat.
But let’s be real: the Bills offense is Josh Allen. For my money, he’s the league’s best quarterback, and he’s playing like it. He leads an offense that is 1st in EPA/play, 2nd in total yards, 2nd in yards per play, 3rd in rushing yards, and 10th in passing yards. They are also near the top of the league in red zone and 3rd-down percentage, respectively.
It was a true strength-versus-strength matchup against the Vikings’ defense. They remain 1st in EPA/play, points per game, success rate allowed, Pass EPA/play, and passing yards allowed. They are second only in yards allowed per game. What gives, Flores!?
Of course, we’ve been vulnerable against the run in several games this year, and the unit’s ranking took a hit after giving up a whopping 230 yards to the Lions last week. We are now 17th in rushing yards allowed per game and are giving up 4.5 yards per carry. If my concern level for offense was a 10, I’d put it at a solid 2 right now. They will fix it soon, but, as mentioned, this week will bring another challenge.
In fact, you’d think the two priorities for this week would be, first, to keep Cook on early downs, repeatedly forcing Allen and the Bills’ offense into the pressure cooker of 3rd-and-long against the blitz and our elite coverage unit. Second, to (as much as possible) keep Allen contained in the pocket in likely passing situations. If he’s buying himself time out of pocket, more often than not you’re toast.
Conversely, I’d be surprised if the Bills don’t try our shaky run defense early and often in this one to avoid those very situations. In addition, what makes the Bills’ offense so dangerous is their ability to convert 4th and short situations with Allen, who, at over 6′ 5″ and nearly 240 pounds, is nearly impossible to fill at the line of scrimmage. This can not only extend drives but frustrate and demoralize a defense.
If we win this one, I can’t see us doing it without committing a turnover or two. The good news is that Allen suffers from a bit of Stafforditis – ie, elite QBs prone to throwing some head-scratching INTs. Hopefully the pressure that Flores will bring will help. James Cook has also had problems handling the ball this year, with four fumbles already, so there’s that.
Wentz starting gives me some confidence that we can pull off the upset, but I will not, in good conscience, pick the Vikings to win this game until I see something – whatever – which resembles consistency from offense. Consistently scoring 24 points shouldn’t be this difficult for our skill players. Wentz made the most of the short fields the Packers gave us in Week 1, scoring us 39 points. Sure, there were TD drives of 1 play for 1 yard, 3 plays for 14 yards, and 6 plays for 28 yards. But we also had a 9-play, 83-yard scoring drive! It’s like the ’98 Vikings and ’99 Rams rolled into one!
Holding Allen and the Bills offense under 20 in this game may require Flores to paint another masterpiece like last year’s Week 17 game against the Lions at US Bank Stadium. Can it happen? Absolutely. Will it happen? Ehhh, you can’t hope. Regardless, it would be nice not to have to rely on that every week, wouldn’t it?
My prediction: Wentz injects some much-needed life into the offense, but we came up short. Reverse psychology was initiated.