Some of you are no doubt confused by the title. The Texans are coming off a bye week, so what exactly are we looking at in the rearview mirror? Well, this is what we will lovingly call self-scouting. We take a look at the Texans season ranking in various categories to see if we can identify the key points they will need to improve on for the rest of the season, Obviously, if you are 2-5 on the season, there are definitely some things to improve on.
However, not all 2-5 football teams are created equal. Teams like the Dolphins and Titans have repeatedly (though not the last two weeks) been getting their doors shut. The Chargers have been an absolute mess and I’m watching two terrible teams on Sunday night football as I type this. The Texans are minus seven points on a point differential that seems to predict a 3-4 or even 4-3 record at times. So, obviously it’s not completely terrible.
So, the numbers we’re looking at can be a start to figuring out a way around it. The team is 1-4 in one score games. Maybe there will be better luck in the second half. Perhaps there is one major adjustment they can make on both sides of the ball to turn their fortunes around. The main thing is that the record doesn’t accurately tell us what’s going on with this football team.
Total Yards: Offense 2367/13, Defense 2394/22
Rushing Yards: Offense 593/29, Defense 686/16
Passing Yards: Offense 1774/6, Defense 1708/29
Penalties: 58/508 (30th)
Sacks: Offense 15 (17th). Defense 21 (2nd)
Turnovers: Offense 3 (2nd), Defense 6 (26th)
Points per game: Offense 23.6 (15th), Defense 24.3 (19th)
Obviously, many of these numbers cut both ways, but there are a few that stand out when we get to the good, the bad, and the ugly of the season. We usually do great, good, and bad with success, but with the team 2-5 success doesn’t feel like the way to go. I should point out that these are mostly in total yards and passing yards. They are positive in plus/minus. They seem to find creative ways to lose football games. This looks like a .500 team and that’s where you’d think they’d go.
We’ll really get to CJ Stroud next week, so we won’t say too much about him in this space. However, there has been growth in the passing game overall. The team has some finds in the draft and free agency in terms of skill position players. Jaylin Noel looked better before he went down with a season-ending injury. Foster Moreau is a really good addition as the second tight end.
We should keep this in mind when we air our complaints about free agent signings and draft picks gone awry. Not everything is negative and not everything is positive. Most seasons have both in fairly equal measure. The difference is the amount of damage the Texans have sustained on both sides of the ball and there is very little that can be done about that.
A very significant part of me feels sorry for Nick Caley. For the past year and a half he has been the most convenient whipping boy for the fanbase and we at BRB have certainly participated in that whipping and I am the most guilty party. Here we point out that they have given up the second fewest turnovers in the NFL and are in the middle of the pack in points per game and total yards. So, whether or not you’re burning Caley depends on whether you’re looking at it from 10,000 feet or five feet.
The closer you look the more cracks you will see in the veneer. You start to notice one of the worst rushing attacks in the NFL. You notice an offense that looks dead at key points in games after the opposing quarterback is able to do something to stop the offense. Caley just isn’t good at adjusting on the fly. He couldn’t draw a third and one game to save his life. These are things you can’t really see when you’re just looking at aggregated data.
Perhaps more importantly, we notice that major changes in personnel seem to be too late or not at all. David Montgomery was clearly inferior to Woody Marks, but remained in the starting lineup until he got hurt. Xavier Hutchinso is still getting snaps over Marvin Harrison Jr. and they’ve had Jaylin Noel for most of the season. Perhaps even more dazzling, Keelan Rutledge is one of the lowest-rated guards in the NFL according to PFF, but a superior Wyatt Teller awaits on the bench.
Evan Brown is one of the bottom five centers in the NFL and only a couple who could be called starters are listed below him. Part of it goes to Nick Caserio for the players he gives Caley. However, the other part is on Caley for not recognizing that some guys need to be replaced in the lineup. I know you don’t want to kill Rutledge’s confidence, but there comes a point when the best five guys have to be out there.
More than anything else, this probably goes to DeMeco Ryans more than anything else. This is not a smash mouth running football team. That has not been the case with Ryans tenure. I understand that this is what he wants and that makes perfect sense, but at some point you have to go with what you are. You are a spread passing football team. You can lean on that too.
The words we just said about the offense can be echoed about the defense. The main difference is that the defense should be a top five unit in the NFL. They certainly weren’t like that except for the Tennessee Titans game. I could certainly chalk up the Jacksonville game to the field conditions or the Buffalo and Cincinnati game to the play of the top five quarterbacks in the league. There comes a certain point when you run out of excuses.
There are three problems that we can separate from the defense. The first is the lack of turnovers. Six turnovers in seven games is not enough. That may be a function of performance, but it’s likely a luck factor. Sometimes the bounces don’t go your way. However, there are a couple of notable opportunities for picks that can turn two losses into wins. A 4-3 start certainly looks better than a 2-5.
The second problem is the same as above. Reed Blankenship is dead last among safeties according to PFF. I’d say we’d be surprised, but PFF also rated him as one of the worst safeties last year. Somehow Caserio thought he was a good guy to sign anyway. Add in the fact that several other players (almost all in the secondary) haven’t played great football this year and you have the makings of a disappointing defense regardless of scheme.
This brings us to the scheme. The Texans played looser and tighter but couldn’t break down the defense. The obvious reason is to avoid big plays, but they still give up a ton of big plays. They rely on the front four to get home and they do more often than most teams, but they need to have more consistent pressure. More importantly, they make quarterbacks’ lives miserable. Things have been too easy for them this season. Ryans may not want to consider personnel changes or scheme changes, but after seven weeks the “it’s too early” mantra won’t fly.