October continues to be bountiful for us here at the Tuley’s Take home office as we went 5-0 ATS last week with two of our “dog or pass” plays hauling upsets.
We started Saturday at Nebraska +7.5 with a 20-17 home loss against No. 7 Indiana, then won with UCLA +11.5 in a 17-15 shocking upset of No. 13 Oregon, Syracuse +9.5 in a 28-25 spread-covering loss at Virginia, Georgia Southern +7.5 in a 24-17 spread at Jamesdudison spread. +2.5 in 41-13 home rout against Minnesota. As such, 8-1 ATS is our Best Bet over the last two weeks to actually get us back over .500 at 13-12 ATS after a terrible start to the CFB season.
Our game plan laid out two weeks ago of finding the dogs at home and also avoiding the overmatched dead dogs in the SEC definitely worked better. (Though I wish I made an exception last Saturday at Georgia vs. Alabama, as I mentioned, I was leaning toward the Bulldogs pulling the minor upset but it passed because of my SEC boycott.)
We hit the halfway point of the CFB season in Week 7 of 13, so hopefully we can carry the momentum into the second half of the season. I have four (hopefully) live dogs for Saturday, with two at home with Indiana and BYU to keep our recent winning theme.
After having Indiana win the CFB Playoffs last season, I gave them +245 to repeat as Big Ten champions in July’s VSiN College Football Betting Guide. That’s definitely a bet to win the conference championship game in December, but if I thought they could win outright at a neutral site, I’d definitely have to take them getting more than one field goal in this Saturday’s midseason classic at home.
The Hoosiers were fortunate to stay undefeated by rallying to beat Nebraska 17-15 last week (and I’m happy to fade them against the Cornhuskers), but that’s an obvious look-ahead spot in their focus in this game against Ohio State, which started the season ranked No. 1 but lost 24-23 at Texas in Week 2. are pretty evenly matched in everything, including their rankings, and it should come down to a FG like Indiana’s 13-10 win in the Big Ten title game in December.
And I don’t know of anyone currently who would take OSU’s Ryan Day over IU’s Curt Cignetti. Playbooksports.com’s Marc Lawrence, a longtime handicapper and frequent VSiN guest, pointed out that Ohio State is 1-5 ATS in its last six conference revenge games under Day, while Cignetti has a lot of trends in his favor, including my favorite 5-0 SU & ATS as home underdogs vs. teams with a .750 school winning percentage against FBS.
Best College Football Bet: Indiana +3.5
In another noon ET kickoff back in the East, Cincinnati visits West Virginia in a Big 12 (Big 12, really?) matchup. I’m not sure the right team is favored here with Cincinnati at 4-1 (1-1 in Big 12) and West Virginia at 3-3 (0-3 in conference), but I’ll take the minor points.
Both teams can run the ball well, with the Mountaineers averaging 295.5 rushing yards per game and the Bearcats at 230.8. The difference is that West Virginia’s defense is like a sieve, allowing 36 points per game and more than 450 total yards per game. I’ll also take Cincy QB JC French IV, who doesn’t throw for many yards with an emphasis on the running game, but he played the role of game-manager to a T with six TD passes and zero INTs. Unlike our other dogs, I’m really calling for outright anxiety here at such a low prevalence.
Best College Football Bet: Cincinnati +2
OK, I know I’m going to fight my boycott of SEC games, but it fits the scenario at the end of my intro where what I’m really avoiding are overmatched dogs who happen to be in the SEC (where the gap in money and talent between the haves and have-nots appears to be greater than NIL). I should have made Georgia an official Best Pick because they’re clearly not without it (fortunately, I’ve played the Bulldogs in several season-long SU and ATS tournaments and confidence pools, but I’d rather me and my followers win money now).
Well, Florida isn’t a have-not either, so I’m jumping back into the SEC here with the Gators as live underdogs at No. 7 Texas. I gave the Longhorns +650 to win the CFB Playoffs in the VSiN College Football Betting Guide back in July, so I’m definitely hoping they win here. However, after watching their games, they did not look like the No. 1 team in the nation in their first four wins, and they lost 27-24 at Oklahoma on Saturday. That also puts them in a “mini-anti-swagger” role as they are bound to have a letdown after their undefeated season ends and will be content with a one-score win, as they often play.
Florida has lost two straight to Missouri and South Carolina to fall out of the Top 25, but if they can return to their previous form with wins 44-39 at Auburn and 52-28 against No. 4 Ole Miss, they should be able to match Texas’ mark for scoring and cover this huge number. We’re hoping Florida QB Aaron Philo (questionable, shoulder) will be able to play Saturday, but I tend to take backup QBs with success in places like this and hope the return of WR Vernell Brown III, who missed the last two games, helps either starter.
Best College Football Bet: Florida +11.5
Both teams enter this Top 10 matchup undefeated after being passed over by the CFB Playoff Committee last December. Notre Dame hasn’t really been tested and is drawing some criticism for its relative cupcake schedule and easy path to the CFB Playoff as an Independent.
While I know some CFB bettors are backing the Irish as a chance to prove themselves against a quality opponent, I think the oddsmakers (and the betting market) set this line too high and didn’t give BYU enough respect. The Cougars are 3-0 in Big 12 play and lead the standings (whatever happens here won’t count against them in the conference race) and have yet to be tested, with their closest win being 17-10 at TCU in the rain.
Notre Dame leads the nation, allowing just 11 points per game, but again that’s against a softer schedule, while BYU’s defense isn’t too shabby at 13.4 ppg. The Irish have a better passing game with Heisman candidate CJ Carr (1,378, 16 TD, just 1 INT), but BYU’s Bear Brandmeier has thrown for 1,272 yards himself with nine TDs and just 1 INT, too, and can also take over a game with his run, as he did against TCU’s likely leading rusher LJ Martin.
We also like it to be a step up in class for Notre Dame, and Lawrence pointed out that the Irish haven’t lost to a Top 10 team on the road since 2012, while BYU has gone gold under coach Kalani Sitake at 8-1 ATS against unbeaten opponents and 15-2 SU and ATS in its last 17 games as the home dogs. Woof, woof.
Best College Football Bet: BYU +10.5
For more Week 7 college football picks and predictions, visit the Week 7 College Football Hub exclusively on VSiN.com.
SPONSORED
STRIKE POINT SPORTS has recorded 4 of 5 NFL winning weeks and 4 of 6 college football winning weeks. SPS went 22-13 (63%), +2,140 in their last 35 football picks (documented HERE) and is on a stellar 40-22 (65%), +6,390 college football surge! Put “Mr. Saturday” to work for you today. VSiN readers can get a free $60 new member account at Doc’s Sports. Start here!