The calendar’s turn to October has made us feel better about the current football season here at the Tuley’s Take home office. After back-to-back 1-3 ATS weeks to close out September, we rebounded with a 3-1 ATS record on Saturday with our CFB Best Bets (and 4-0-1 ATS in NFL Week 4). We lost our first game Saturday at Stanford +14 in a brutal 57-3 blowout at Wake Forest, but then started our hot weekend with wins at Minnesota +6 in a 20-14 outright home upset over Michigan, Washington +9.5 in a 25-21 loss to USC and San Diego State +8 (went up +10) in another outright home upset of 31, Texas29, a furniture. everything else seems to fade away. We love when that happens.
As I wrote in the intro to these CFB columns last week, our game plan worked: pass the SEC games and find more underdogs at home. Hopefully it works when applying this CFB Week 6 play on Saturday (we’re giving Georgia a dog short over Alabama, though I still think the Bulldogs are the right side, so take that for what it’s worth).
I was thrilled to cash in on Indiana winning the national title last year. The Hoosiers have clearly lost Heisman Trophy-winning QB Fernando Mendoza to the NFL, but I still pick them at +245 to repeat as Big Ten champs in the VSIN CFB Betting Guide. They’re off to a 5-0 start, with their biggest test so far being a 29-23 lopsided win over Northwestern, so they could be a slight favorite here. Nebraska is also 5-0 and untested, so the Huskers are still unranked, and I think that could be a motivating factor here as well, especially in front of the home fans in Lincoln. It’s also a look-ahead spot for Indiana, which hosts Ohio State next week. I certainly hope the Hoosiers stay undefeated, but I can’t miss the points here.
Best College Football Bet: Nebraska +7.5
Sticking to the Big Ten (yeah, it still feels weird typing that to these former Pac-12 schools), I understand why Oregon is favored here against undefeated UCLA, but I don’t agree it should be double digits, especially with QB Dante Moore still out from the concussion he suffered two weeks ago against USC. Granted, backup Dylan Railoa threw for 289 yards and two TDs in relief of Moore as the Ducks pulled away to beat USC 41-27 and should be ready for his first start. UCLA’s running game (averaging 281 yards per game on the ground) should have success against Oregon’s defense (allowing 113 rushing yards per game, No. 9 in the Big Ten). And if the Ducks stack the box, UCLA’s Nico Iamaleave (840 yards passing, four TDs, 2 INTs) will prove handy. This is another case where I’m not calling for outright upset (or money line betting), but the value is in the dog getting more than one TD and, in this case, more than 10 points.
Best College Football Bet: UCLA +11.5
Moving on to the ACC, I’m trying to figure out why this line went from Virginia -6.5 to -9.5, considering the Cavaliers lost their second game in a row last week, 38-7 at Florida State, after a 3-0 start in its only win against a team with a winning record in the season-opener against NC State. Syracuse, meanwhile, is coming off a thrilling 42-41 OT win at UConn in which new starting QB Amari Odom threw for 335 yards and five TDs, and ran in the game-winning 2-point conversion to get the Orange back over .500 at 2-2. I still don’t get the love for Virginia, but I’ll take the bonus points.
Best College Football Bet: Syracuse +9.5
The Sun Belt usually flies under the radar of most college football bettors, but James Madison is 5-0 and in contention for the Group of Five’s automatic bid in the CFB Playoff, just as they did last year before losing to Oregon 51-34. Many bettors are once again on the James Madison bandwagon, but we’ll take the points on an underrated Georgia Southern team. Granted, the Eagles are only 2-3, but they have outscored their opponents in all five games and are better than their record. This could be their bowl game (although they are 1-0 in the Sun Belt and could get back to .500 with a win and thus be on pace to be bowl eligible), and I see a closer game than most people think.
Best College Football Bet: Georgia Southern +7.5
Back to the Big Ten for the nightcap. As stated in the intro, we cashed in on Minnesota last week in its home upset vs. Michigan, but now the Golden Gophers are on the paper as favorites, and I’m ready to fade them. I can definitely see a fallout from that win. Meanwhile, Purdue is in a bit of a “swagger” spot after snapping a 19-game Big Ten losing streak with its 24-17 road win at Illinois. The Boilermakers were blown out 49-10 by No. 3 Notre Dame two weeks ago, but no shame in that. But I keep going back to their two previous losses to Wake Forest and UCLA, 38-36 and 52-38. If they can keep up with those two teams, both of which are better than Minnesota, I have them right up there with the Golden Gophers and definitely as slight favorites. Obviously, I would prefer to get a full FG, but we will expect outright confusion at home.
Best College Football Bet: Purdue +2.5
For more Week 6 college football picks and predictions, visit the Week 6 College Football Hub exclusively on VSiN.com.
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