Tuley’s Takes: MLB Divisional Series Best Bets:
Well, the most anticipated MLB Wild-Card round is a letdown at the Tuley’s Takes home office. Our “dog or pass” plays on the Phillies and Cubs in their losing streak to the Braves and Padres obviously didn’t hit because they only won one game between them (and that was the Phillies as short road favorites in Game 2). I’m also bummed that I didn’t end up on the same series-winning streak with the White Sox. I can’t believe I don’t want to fade the Astros, the team with the worst division-winning record in history at 81-81 (.500). What am I thinking? My only saving grace was passing the Red Sox, who were swept by the Yankees.
Well, I think I made another right call. I usually like the postseason Unders, but luckily passed because the Overs dominated at 7-1-1. For the record, my ViewFromVegas betting recaps mark the favorites at 6-2 (White Sox had both dog wins) and home teams at 5-3 (as noted above, the difference is the Phillies winning Game 2 of their series as road chalk).
Now to the divisional playoffs, which begin Saturday with four games among teams that earned first-round byes. For Game 1s, we’ll see where those teams have “rest vs. rust.” Last year, three of the four advanced to the league championship series, except for No. 2-seeded Phillies, who lost against the defending champion Dodgers.
Chicago White Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians
Series price: Guardians -145/White Sox +125
Game 1 odds: Guardians -145/White Sox +135, Over/Under 7 u-125
The first game of this round was a battle in the AL Central after the White Sox couldn’t hold off the Guardians down the stretch and had to settle for a wild-card spot. Growing up in the suburbs of Chicago as the son of North Siders, I hated the White Sux most of my life (not a typo!), but I have to reluctantly admit that I really like this group – and it’s honestly the first time I can say that since the South Side Hitmen of 1977 as I respect and enjoy watching Ralph Le Gamble, OF Ralph Le Garrsk, OF Ralph Zimon Garrsk, OF Ralph Le C. Brian Downing, 2B Jorge Orta and 3B Eric Soderholm (who handed me the trophy when my Indians team won the Glenside Baseball Major championship in 1977, please don’t remind me that was 49 years ago!), along with a pitching staff that included Wilbur Wood and Steve Stone.
This current team with stars Munetaka Murakami, Miguel Vargas, Chase Meidroth and Sam Antonacci hasn’t had as much fun as that team, but they’ve done a fantastic job of turning around an organization that lost 100 games over the past three seasons, including a record 121 in 2024. The White Sox led the division for most of the summer, including Jose who lost nearly 5 games in August, including Jose who lost 5 games in the previous three seasons, including a record 121 in 2024. Ramirez in five weeks from mid-June to mid-July, was able to stay close to catch the Sox in September.
Regardless, the White Sox did win the season series 7-6, so I’m confident they can take this shorter series as well. The White Sox also have the advantage in power hitting and starting pitching. We’ll give the Guardians credit for a stronger bullpen, but hopefully the Sox can get an early lead and hang on.
MLB Division Playoffs Best Bet: White Sox +125 in the series and +135 in Game 1 and any other game as an underdog.
Atlanta Braves vs Los Angeles Dodgers
Series price: Dodgers -215/Braves +185
Game 1 odds: Dodgers -220/Braves +195, Over/Under 8
Not only was I disappointed about the Phillies losing money in their Wild Card series with the Braves, but I also felt they had a better chance of knocking off the two-time World Series champions.
I respect how well the Braves are playing as a team, but I don’t think they can match the Dodgers in power or by producing enough runs against the unfair rotation of Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Tarik Skubal, Tyler Glasnow, and Blake Snell. The Braves have a great bullpen, but I’m afraid they won’t be able to protect many late leads.
I’m tempted to look Under (Game 1 is set at 8 runs, 110 each way), but the Dodgers also have the best lineup money can buy. The Braves are also hurting because they used their ace, Chris Sale, in Game 1 of the Wild Card round and then again in Game 3, so we likely won’t see him until the series shifts to Atlanta.
MLB Division Playoffs Best Bet: Pass, except maybe the Under in Game 3 or 4 with Sale pitching for the Braves
New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Series price: Yankees -120/Rays +100
Game 1 odds: Rays -129/Yankees 119, Over/Under 7 u-120
Both American League series are intradivisional, with the AL East’s Yankees taking on the division-winning Rays after sweeping the Red Sox 2-0 by scores of 9-0 and 9-2.
The Rays did win the season series 7-6, but the Yankees were the real series favorites, and it’s interesting to note that they outscored the Rays 54-45, or an average of 4.2 to 3.5. This really looks like a case where the Rays have to win any one-run game.
You know I’m not going to recommend the Yankees as the series chalk (even at a low price because I’m still “Mr. Dog or Pass”), but I’ll definitely take them into any game as an underdog, starting with Game 1 on Saturday. The Yankees used Cam Schlittler in their Wild Card sweep, so they’ll go with Gerrit-19 ERA (3.10. WHIP) in the opener. The Rays are going with Drew Rasmussen (16-5, 2.67 ERA, 0.91 WHIP), so his stats are better than Cole’s, and he’s 2-1 against New York this season, so I can understand why the Rays are favored going into the house. However, I’ll still take the Cole vs. the Rays (who may also have rust), as he was 0-1 in two starts but held them to just five hits and two earned runs (2.19 ERA) in 11 2/3 innings with 10 strikeouts.
MLB Division Playoffs Best Bet: Yankees +119 in Game 1 and any game as an underdog.
San Diego Padres vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Series price: Brewers -190/Padres +165
Game 1 odds: Brewers -208/Padres +185, Over/Under u-115
The Padres eliminated my beloved Cubs in the playoffs, which was hard to watch because the Padres are my second favorite team in the NL. They are now my favorite Brewers team (even more so than the Cardinals as a lifelong Cubs fan).
The Brewers won 103 games to win the No. 1 seed against the Dodgers, but I think everyone agrees that the Dodgers are still the best team in the NL and all of baseball, and I’d put the Padres behind them and ahead of the Brewers because they’re built like a power-hitting playoff team with a great bullpen.
The Brewers threw flamethrowing ace Jacob Misiorowski (16-5, ridiculously low 1.80 ERA, 0.80 WHIP) in Game 1 on Saturday. The Padres counter with Robbie Ray (13-8, 3.59 ERA, 1.35 WHIP), who isn’t too shabby, but is clearly a cut below.
I was tempted to pass on the Padres in Game 1 and hope to get a better series price if they lose; however, they’re coming in hot off their sweep of the Cubs, and I’m mad for them to steal Game 1 and for me to miss out on a juicy bet in the future (since they’ll likely flip to series favorites). So I immediately jumped.
MLB Division Playoffs Best Bet: Padres +165 to win the series and +185 in Game 1 and any other game as an underdog.
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