Today’s MLB Betting Trends:
The following is a collection of analytical data, betting systems, and power ratings featured on VSiN and qualifying for the MLB games of Saturday, October 17, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team go through when handicapping the MLB board each day.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top trends and systems for games today, as selected by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
Trends: Under total is 59-46-2 (+8.40 units) when CLE faces RH starters this season
Trend Match (PLAY BELOW): TB-CLE (o/u in 6.5)
* In LCS Game 4 totals, Overs is big since 2006, going 32-8-1 for +23.15 units, an ROI of 57.9%.
System Match (PLAY OVER): TB-CLE (o/u in 6.5)
* Teams favored in an MLB postseason game after losing the last outing while scoring two runs or fewer are just 40-86 in run lines (-35.80 units, ROI: -28.4%) since 2012.
System Match (FADE): TAMPA BAY (-1.5 in CLE)
Trends and Systems for the MLB Postseason
Notable Postseason Team Trends (since 2015)
* CLEVELAND: 28-22 to the Under for +4.20 units
* TAMPA BAY: 21-16-1 to the Under for +3.35 units
Matching Trends (PLAY BELOW): TB-CLE (o/u in 6.5)
Line angles
Over the same period since 2001, shorter road favorites below -140 went 59-68 for -25.09 units (ROI: -19.8%)
System Match (FADE): TAMPA BAY (-116 in CLE)
Series win status
For teams leading a series, home field advantage means a lot, as these hosts are 80-58 SU (+11.19 units, ROI: 8.1%) and 71-67 on run lines (+13.84 units, ROI: 10%) since 2013.
System Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND
Statistics from last game trends
Teams favored in an MLB postseason game after losing the last outing while scoring two runs or less are 56-70 SU (-39.60 units, ROI: -31.4%) and 40-86 on run lines (-35.80 units, ROI: -28.4%) since 2012.
System Match (FADE): TAMPA BAY
Trends based on regular season records
Over the last five playoff seasons, MLB teams that have won less than 90 games have a 52-54 SU (+9.45 units, ROI: 8.9%) surge in playoff games when unmatched against peers.
System Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-104 vs TB)
Total angles
The last four MLB postseasons have been great for Over bettors, as that portion of the total has gone 116-111-3, and Overs have produced a return of +19.39 units, an ROI of 8.5%. The overall odds have often skewed heavily toward the Unders in recent postseasons.
System Match (PLAY OVER): TB-CLE (o/u in 6.5)
LCS Round angle
– Game-by-game underdogs have proven to be a profitable bet overall recently, but have gone 50-47 SU (+15.91 units, ROI: 16.4%) since 2018.
System Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-104 vs TB)
– Teams that lose while failing to score more than 2 runs in an LCS game have struggled, and back in 2007, in the follow-up game, their record was 43-66 SU (-27.74 units, ROI: -25.4%).
System Match (FADE): TAMPA BAY (-116 in CLE)
– Game 4 underdogs are on a big run of 27-18 SU (+16.11 units, ROI: -35.8%) and 31-14 RL (+9.25 units, ROI: 20.6%) run since 2003 in the LCS round.
System Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND
– Game 4 teams trailing their LCS series have really struggled of late, going 12-30 SU (-24.00 units, ROI: -57.1%) and 13-29 (-21.05 units, ROI: -50.1%) in run lines since ’05
System Match (FADE): TAMPA BAY
– In Game 4 total, Overs are big since 2006, going 32-8-1 for +23.15 units, an ROI of 57.9%.
System Match (PLAY OVER): TB-CLE (o/u in 6.5)
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from a weekly update series on MLB teams with handicaps using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Better bullpen underdog teams are solid bets all season long
Perhaps the most famous angle, a frequent and profitable system arises when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings plays as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the ’22-23 season are 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below historical norms (lost -26.45 units), but we experienced a big bounce back in 2025, as the season record ended at 464-488 for +59.39 units, ROI +6.2%! The 2026 season was slower than usual, 336-405 for -20.73 units, ROI -2.8%. – Again, even at -2.8%, this is a huge advantage over the average -8.1% loss (9-5, +5.92 units in the playoffs).
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): CLEVELAND (-104 vs TB)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, which details betting systems for teams based on the eye-popping stats they have accumulated in their previous game
Road teams that scored poorly in the previous game are a bad bet in the next outing
You want to consider losing teams playing on the road who scored 2 runs or less in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options in their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are only 2336-2922 (44.4%) for -267.02 units and an ROI of -5.1% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Match (FADE): TAMPA BAY (-116 in CLE)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following MLB betting trends were taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
In theory, the green star “edges” appear when a team has an odds edge of 15 cents over the actual price. That is a legacy thing. However, this year I recorded that a 10-cent edge is actually better, because teams with an edge of 10 cents against the actual odds went 690-690 for +11.66 units, good for +0.8% ROI.
Ratings Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND -104 (+13 diff)
Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spot
The following MLB betting trends and qualifying play scenarios look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar areas.
(941) TAMPA BAY (102-66) and (942) CLEVELAND (90-80)
Trends: Nick Martinez has a 4.39 ERA vs Cleveland in his career (in eight appearances)
Match the Trend (FADE): TAMPA BAY (-116 in CLE)
Trends: CLE is 39-17 (+11.12 units) on the run line as the ML underdog this season
Match the Trend (PLAY): CLEVELAND (+1.5 vs TB)
Top Head-to-Head Series MLB Betting Trends
Series #2: Tampa Bay Rays at Cleveland Guardians
Trends: Under total is 19-4-1 (82.6%, +14.60 units) runs in Guardians-Rays series (5.25 runs per game in these 24 contests)
– The ROI on this trend is 63.5%
Trend Match (PLAY BELOW): TB-CLE (o/u in 6.5)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s game starting at 8:45 am ET. They can AND DO change, so keep monitoring and qualifying systems until the first pitch for best use.
DK MLB Betting Splits System #9: The majority of bet holders endured three consecutive poor playoff seasons in 2023-2025, with a combined record of 64-64 (50%) for -19.84 units and an ROI of -15.5% (17-14, -2.39 units in 2026).
System Match (FADE): TAMPA BAY (-116 in CLE)
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