I don’t intend to mess with karma, because a win is a win and we’ll need 10 or more of them to make the playoffs. I recently reminded a co-worker about the temptation of said karma. He went to the casino and came back “even”, which upset him. He said he had won the previous three trips, so a “tie” was like a loss. I told him that he had a free evening of entertainment and that complaining about going out though, would probably change his fortunes. This happened, as he lost the next three trips. I only told that short story because I know that complaining after a win, can tempt fate.
The biggest thing to remember is that we are only four weeks into the season, or just short of the quarter pole in this season’s race. Many say the season doesn’t start until Thanksgiving weekend, so that’s almost two months away. You can’t win a division in the first four weeks, but you can lose it. The Colts are positioned in the middle of the pack and aren’t playing themselves out of the race.
While I’m against complaining about a win, I think it’s fair to look at strengths and weaknesses, evaluate the possibility or likelihood of seeing a decline, or the prospect of improvement. In other words, I think it’s okay to point out shortcomings, even if you manage to win the ledger. I haven’t exactly cracked the code, because many see the same things I do.
Most team conversations revolve around the QB, so that’s a logical place to start. Daniel Jones turned the ball over too often. From the comments, I’d guess about 1/2 will blame Jones and point to past turnover struggles, while the other 1/2 will split the blame between the offensive line and Steichen’s play. Everything can be legit. Jones’ history shows that he has fumbled 63 times in 86 starts. He huddled last week without actually getting hit. Can a QB learn ball security on the fly?
It’s also hard not to notice that the OL isn’t holding up as well as last year. The truth is, the line has been under siege, ever since the Steelers started attacking the backfield, last year. From that point, you have to determine if Travis coming into the lineup was more of a factor, or if our HC/OC failed to put us in the best position to counter what the Colts opponents’ game plan has been. In general, if you can identify your weakness, you should be able to find a way to fix it, or at least minimize the negative effects.
QB play isn’t the only area where improvements are needed. We need to find some quick strikes. Jones will have to take it out, or find a way to punish teams that carry too much at the line of scrimmage. I hate to think we have to wait and hope for a healthy Pierce return to make this happen. In fact, he might not be ready to do that until next year. Marvin, Reggie, and even TY found a way to get back on defense, and the way teams are chasing us, there has to be a way for someone on the roster to do it.
Both offensive deficiencies seem to be something Shane must address. My dead horse is about to take another beating, as I believe that staying under center more often and including some huddle series, will help offensive efficiency all around. When both JT and DJ are in the backfield, they are easier targets. Having a full game clock to gauge what the D wants to do and keeping them with their base personnel will both be benefits of no huddle.
How could the defense be better? We’ve shown some improvement, albeit against a bad offensive line and a 3rd string QB, but we’ve gotten better and need to continue to do so. Our LBs can do better with thin reps. Davis-Gaither has 28 starts in his 7-year career. Carlies has 10 in just 2 years and Ajiake, Boettcher, and Allen haven’t even started. We need to slow the game down for all of them and play the best two, regardless of their draft or contract status.
With Keys’ injury, we may see the same thing by allowing the inexperienced Edges to hone their craft on the fly. I actually thought I saw glimpses of better penetration in the first two games of the season, than I did in our wins. I may be way off base and I know we all see things differently, but I don’t think DL is allowed to “win however you can win”. Lane integrity seems more important than blowing up a play or at least timing the play. Maybe we can just find a way to get the same kind of effort we get from Buck. More Adebawore?
Going into the season, many, myself included, thought the secondary would be the strength of the team. The unit does not perform at that level. I think it was a group effort, as only Ward and Bynum got away with looking bad at times. We have to remember that 3/5ths are playing in their first full season with the team and the other 2/5ths are only in their second year as Colts. The secondary is like the O-line in that they operate as a unit and still have some lapses in assignments. In other words, they get to know each other quickly.
There is no new toy to bring to save a position group. If you’re hoping for a Booger McFarland like upgrade, I think you believe Ballard might have that option. I just don’t think he needs to win the division or a playoff game to keep his job, I think he needs to do it with the group he has on the roster. (I don’t think I can put Carl Lawson in the new toy category).
As an optimist, I know that younger players can be better. Some also respond to situations of higher pressure. The Colts need both to happen. Shane and Lou don’t seem to be implementing new tricks, so there needs to be some physical or mental improvement from some players. The Colts could have 11 full contact practices, through the first 11 weeks of the season, so it’s hard to imagine a player performing well in limited opportunities, to “take” a job from someone. It seems like once the season starts, only one injury can see you out of a job, so we may not see the personnel changes that some are suggesting.
There seems to be a little more fire on D and I attribute that to Buck’s inspired play of late. Maybe Q can work a little of the same magic on offense?
As far as the Steeler game goes, I’ll take the worst of trends, as long as it doesn’t involve seeing any of our guys go down. As a 2.5 point underdog on the road, we may actually be seen as the better team, but not enough to make up for playing in a historically difficult environment. I think we can win this with a cleaner game from the offense. Moving the ball isn’t easy for the Steelers, so don’t give them short fields.
Has the two game winning streak changed how the Colts’ chances are viewed moving forward?