The Week 6 Thursday Night Football matchup is a good one, as the Denver Broncos host the Seattle Seahawks. Keep reading for odds, picks, and player props for this exciting showdown. Also, make sure you head over to our Week 6 NFL Betting Hub to check out all of our NFL betting content.
MORE: Head to the Pro Picks page for the best bets from all our VSiN hosts and analysts!
How to Watch Seahawks vs. Broncos
when: Thursday, October 15 at 8:20 pm ET
where: Empower Field at Mile High in Denver, Colorado
Channels: Prime Video
Seahawks vs. Broncos Odds
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook are accurate as of Tuesday, October 13. Look around for the best prices!
moneyline: Seahawks -148, Broncos +124
Spread: Seahawks -2.5 (-115), Broncos +2.5 (-105)
Total: Over 40.5 (-112), Under 40.5 (-108)
Seahawks vs. Broncos analysis
The Seahawks are coming off a loss to the 49ers, while the Broncos are coming off an ugly win against the Chargers. Both teams now sit at 3-2 on the season, but the defending champions enter this one as the betting favorites.
As of early Tuesday night, the betting divisions at DraftKings Sportsbook showed a slight majority of Seattle bets, but the handle heavily favored the Seahawks. However, at Circa Sports, while the majority of tickets favor Seattle, the handle strongly favors the Broncos. That’s pretty significant considering Circa is one of the smartest books in the country. Also, notable to me, because I already lean towards Denver.
Seattle has not looked good this season. The Seahawks are just 26th in the NFL in EPA/Play (-0.070), their offensive line hasn’t played up to expectations, and they’re getting nothing on the ground. Seattle is just 30th in the NFL in Rush EPA/Play (-0.275), and that plays a big role in Sam Darnold’s Pro Football Focus grade dropping to 72.2. The Seahawks are built to be a good rushing team, and the passing game plays on the ground attack with the play-action pass. When Seattle doesn’t make it on the ground, everyone else suffers.
Denver’s defense will come into this one knowing that avoiding chunk yardage on early downs should set the team up for a victory. That said, I expect the Broncos to do everything they can to make a run. That will be harder for the team to do with so many defensive backs — including Pat Surtain II — bumped up, but it will be how Denver approaches it. And in the end I think the team will be successful.
Of course, the Broncos will have to find a way to score against a No. 1 Seahawks defense. 2 in the NFL in EPA/Plays Allowed (-0.117). That won’t be easy considering the way Denver is playing right now, and I’m not sure the Broncos look any better with Sean Payton stepping in for Davis Webb as the team’s play-caller. But I strongly feel that Denver’s offense is better than Seattle’s offense right now, and that’s huge in a game like this.
I just don’t see the Seahawks’ issues suddenly fixing themselves in one of the toughest road environments in sports. Also, the Broncos are 3-2 straight-up on Thursdays under Payton, so they don’t mind the short rest. They are also 22-8 SU when playing at home under Payton, and they have a winning record as a home underdog.
Seahawks vs. Broncos Player Props
Jaylen Waddle Over 46.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
I don’t often get the player props I throw at these primetime stories, but you’ll notice there’s no “lean” listed on the front of this one. I’m definitely taking Waddle to finish at least 47 yards, as this is one where some of our tools point to an Over. For starters, our WR/CB Matchup Tool wants him to work against Josh Jobe. Jobe’s PFF score is down to 54.1 this year, so Waddle’s speed could be an issue for him. Also, our OptaAI player prop projection has Waddle finishing with 55.84 receiving yards here. That’s almost 10 more in total. So, in a game where I already like Denver, I’m taking Waddle. I see him hauling a bomb sometimes.
Seahawks vs. Broncos Pick
We’ve certainly seen some signs that Denver has taken a turn this season, but I want the Broncos to figure this out. Also, even with the current state of things, I don’t see why Denver is available at +130 in a home game against a similar team. The Broncos already have one big primetime win under their belts this year, and this one should be a little more straightforward than the Rams. Seattle is struggling to move the ball, and doing so in a night game in Denver probably isn’t the answer. That said, I’ll go moneyline with the home team. I also got a Waddle prop.
Bet: Broncos ML (+130 – 1.5 units) and Waddle Over 46.5 Receiving Yards (-115)