The final ATP Masters 1000 event of the 2026 tennis season is here, as the world’s top players compete at the Paris La Defense Arena for the Rolex Paris Masters. With that in mind, I’ll be taking all the action over the next week or so. That starts with my Day 1 tennis predictions and best bets for Monday, November 2. Keep reading for some of my favorite picks for this loaded slate, but don’t stop there. Gill Alexander will be posting his best bets on the VSiN picks page daily, and I’ll be adding some extra plays there as well.
Rolex Paris Masters Futures
Carlos Alcaraz To Win The Tournament (+187 – 2 units)
I had a bigger game in Alcaraz to win in Vienna last week, because the Spanish draw was so easy. In Paris, Alcaraz will face the winner of Alex Michelsen and Jiri Lehecka in the second round, then he will see some of the following names before even reaching the semifinals: Ugo Humbert, Arthur Fils, Taylor Fritz. It will take more for Alcaraz to lift the trophy this week, but I think he will get it done. In Vienna, Alcaraz has a TennisViz Performance Rating of 9.00. It was the first time she posted a PR of 9.00 or higher since her run in the Indian Wells semifinals in March. It certainly seems like he’s starting to find his peak again, and that level is something only Jannik Sinner can match. Well, Sinner remains out as he continues to rehab his knee, and Alcaraz should take advantage of that. The only thing that can stop the Spaniard from winning this 1000 is the Spaniard. If he is dialed in with his game plans, and doesn’t get bored with them, he will win this event.
QUICK NOTE: At the time of publishing, quarter odds were not available. I will be looking for ways to support Daniil Medvedev to get to the semifinals, so don’t be surprised if I add something else. If I do, I’ll update this story and send something to Twitter (@BettingOnX).
Rolex Paris Masters Day 1 Best Bets – November 2
Hubert Hurkacz vs. Lorenzo Musetti Over 24.5 Games (-110)
If Hurkacz beats Musetti, the Pole will likely do so in a long match with several tiebreakers. Hurkacz is not a strong returner, so consistently getting into games with a decent server will be difficult indoors. However, even Musetti’s victory had to come in a long fight. If Hurkacz is on a server, he will always target the Musetti backhand and give himself chances to win sets. In the end, I see both players on the board. However, I wouldn’t rule out a 7-6, 7-5 or 7-6, 7-6 victory for someone. That’s why I’m going to Over the games instead of taking +120 for Over 2.5 sets. It’s not worth losing with the correct reading for an extra 30 cents.
Daniel Merida Aguilar ML (+142) vs. Alexander Blockx
Merida Aguilar lost to a red-hot Medvedev in Vienna, but no shame in that. Let’s see how he looks in a meeting with Blockx, who might be a little tired at this point in the season. The 21-year-old hasn’t advanced to a tournament since the US Open, so Merida Aguilar is picking him up at the right time. I think the Spanish baseline game will be very good here. We just need him to hit his spots as a server. If he does, we should see some tight sets in this one, so it’s worth holding a +142 ticket.
Ugo Humbert ML (-154) vs. Botic from Zandschulp
Humbert fell short in his attempt to knock out Novak Djokovic last tournament, but he took a set and put up a strong fight. Beating van de Zandschulp should be a little easier, and that’s especially true given Humbert’s love of competing indoors. Having a lot of people in the house wouldn’t hurt either, so I’d happily take the better player back at a reasonable -154 price. Humbert is 5-0 against van de Zandschulp in his career, and he had a 6-3, 6-4 win against him on indoor hard courts earlier in the year.
Added Games
I usually have a lot MORE on the Pro Picks page. These plays count towards my record and have been a big part of my success this season. Make sure you check them out. I’ll probably be adding a few more there, so refresh that page throughout the day if you’re looking for action. I also put my Challenger-level games there, as well as picks for lower-level ATP and WTA events.
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