See of, September.
happy
With the NFL games this week, in early October, it’s time to get rid of the stink of my September picks. It’s not great.
I went 8-8 straight last week and 6-9-1 against the spread. This brings my straight-up record to 29-19 for the season. My ATS mark is a dismal 21-26-1.
Let’s just say I’m happy that October is here.
The first two weeks of October is when we start to get a real measure of NFL teams. We will know who is the contender or pretender.
That makes choosing games easier. I hope so.
The goal now is to get over .500 ATS. Then it’s time to act as an opponent.
Let’s go.
All lines through DraftKings; All times ET
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns (+2.5)
- Thursdays, 8:15 pm on Amazon Prime
Can you believe this is a big game in the AFC North? Both teams are 2-1 and the Browns are one of the surprise teams so far. The Steelers looked good last week, beating the Bengals, but the Browns played well against them in Cleveland. Special anger. Browns take it 3-1.
Select: Browns 21, Steelers 20
Indianapolis Colts at Washington Commanders (+3.5)
- London on Sunday, 9:30 am on NFL Network (Stream: Fubo — try for free)
Both teams won for the first time last week and now head to London to play this week. Then the Colts defense showed improvement last week, while the Commanders defense made some big plays. Look for the Colts and Commanders to both score a lot, but the Colts to come out on top.
Select: Colts 31, Commanders 30
New England Patriots and Buffalo Bills (-7)
The Patriots are on the road for the second week in a row and they are coming off a bad showing in Jacksonville. Drake Maye is struggling. That will continue here. Josh Allen is back on track after a great game last week. the bills win,
Select: Bills 30, Patriots 17
New York Jets at Chicago Bears (-3.5)
- Sunday, 1 pm on Fox (Stream: Fubo — try for free)
The Jets are playing on the road for the second week in a row, while the Bears are playing on a short week. Chicago looked good in blowing out the Eagles on Monday night. It looks like Tyson Bagent will step in at quarterback. Look for Chicago to keep rolling as they get to 3-1.
Select: Bears 23, Jets 17
Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5)
The Bengals are back at home after two weeks on the road, losing to the Steelers last week. The Jaguars beat the Patriots last week, but this will be a tougher challenge on Joe Burrow and that passing game. The Jaguars lead the league in scoring defense, but that won’t last long here. The Bengals took it.
Select: Bengals 23, Jaguars 17
Arizona Cardinals (-1.5) at New York Giants
The Giants didn’t do much on offense in last week’s victory over the Titans, but the weather was brutal. The Cardinals are coming off a road loss to the 49ers, but they did some good things in that game. Against a lesser opponent than San Francisco, I think Arizona will find a way to win it.
Select: Cardinals 24, Giants 21
Los Angeles Rams at Philadelphia Eagles (+3)
- Sunday, 1 pm on Fox (Stream: Fubo — try for free)
The Eagles looked sensational Monday night in a loss to the Bears, while the Rams topped Denver Sunday night. It’s a long journey to try and make up for that. The Rams play well on the East Coast, but I think this will be a refocused Eagles team. They get a close one.
Select: Eagles 30, Rams 27
Green Bay Packers (-3.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Sunday, 1 pm on Fox (Stream: Fubo — try for free)
These two are hurting right now in multiple areas, but the Bucs will be without quarterback Baker Mayfield. That means rookie Jalon Daniels will make his first NFL start. That’s a challenge even at home. Look for Jordan Love to play better here as the Packers get a much-needed victory.
Select: Packers 27, Bucs 21
Tennessee Titans at Baltimore Ravens (-11.5)
This is Derrick Henry Revenge game. The Titans let him walk three seasons ago, and Baltimore is glad they did. Look for Henry to be the focal point of the offense. The Titans have no life on offense right now and they are playing back-to-back road games. It’s not going to be pretty.
Select: Ravens 33, Titans 14
Dallas Cowboys and Houston Texans (-2.5)
- Sunday, 1 pm on Fox (Stream: Fubo — try for free)
The schedule-maker didn’t do the Cowboys any favors by putting them on the road after the Ravens loss in Brazil. The 0-3 Texans hit home for the third time in three weeks. The defense was better last week and I think that will be the difference here. The Texans’ offense will be better than it has been in recent games, too.
Select: Texans 24, Cowboys 18
Miami Dolphins at Minnesota Vikings (-10.5)
- Sunday, 4:05 pm on Fox (Stream: Fubo — try for free)
It’s a challenging road game as the Dolphins face a tough Minnesota defense, led by former Dolphins coach Brian Flores. You know that he is amped to play the team that fired him. Miami’s offense will be without star runner De’Von Achane, which will make things even more difficult. Look for that Vikings defense to get some takeaways to lead to points. Vikings are big.
Select: Vikings 27, Dolphins 10
Kansas City Chiefs (-4.5) at Las Vegas Raiders
This is a match of undefeated teams. Few saw that coming. Both teams are coming off victories on the road. These games are always fun to watch, with the rivalry being what it is. But the Chiefs will win because Patrick Mahomes has a big day.
Select: Chiefs 29, Raiders 24
Denver Broncos at San Francisco 49ers (-3)
This is one of the best games of the week. The Broncos are coming off an impressive comeback victory over the Rams Sunday night. The 49ers rolled to a 3-0 record behind Brock Purdy. Look for it continue. Purdy had a big day as the 49ers remain undefeated.
Select: 49ers 28, Broncos 21
Los Angeles Chargers at Seattle Seahawks (-7)
The Chargers are 0-3 and are coming off a long road trip to the Bills. The Seahawks were upset last week by the Commanders. That will get their attention, which is not a good thing for the Chargers. Look for that Seattle defense to come up big against Justin Herbert.
Select: Seahawks 30, Chargers 20
Detroit Lions (-3.5) at Carolina Panthers
- Sunday, 8:20 pm on NBC (Stream: Fubo — try for free)
The Panthers were really rattled and Bryce Young was hurt along with a bunch of other injuries. They played short in last week’s loss to the Browns. The Lions won a high-scoring game with the Jets Sunday and this one will be more of the same. Look for Jared Goff to play well here as the Lions win a road game.
Select: Lions 31, Panthers 26
Atlanta Falcons (+3) at New Orleans Saints
- Monday, 8:15 pm on ESPN (Stream: Fubo — try for free)
The Falcons impressed on Thursday by blowing out Green Bay on the road. Getting Michael Penix back at quarterback is important. They will continue to give it to Bijan Robinson in this one. The Saints will get theirs behind Tyler Shough. It’s high scoring, and the Falcons will win.
Select: Falcons 33, Saints 30