Quarterback Drake Maye and the New England Patriots are looking to get it right in NFL Week 4, but it won’t be an easy task as they visit New Highmark Stadium for an important AFC East battle with the Buffalo Bills on Sunday. Kickoff is set for 1 pm ET. Buffalo is a 6.5-point favorite in the Patriots vs. Bills odds at DraftKings Sportsbook, and the Over/Under for the total points is 48.5. Bet $5+ on Patriots-Bills in NFL Week 4 with the latest DraftKings promo code and get $150 in bonus bets:
We check the Patriots vs. Bills DraftKings Sportsbookand the SportsLine Projection Model and our NFL experts crunched the numbers, so we present our best bets here for this AFC East battle. The model simulates every NFL game 10,000 times and has raised more than $7,000 for $100 players on betting sites on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. It enters Week 4 of the 2026 NFL season on a 54-43 run among the top-rated picks since 2024. Anyone following its picks on NFL betting sites can see strong returns.
Patriots vs. Betting Odds Bills (via DraftKings)
| Patriots vs. Bills money line: | Patriots +235, Bills -290 |
| Patriots vs. Bills Over/Under: | 48.5 (More than -110, Less than -110) |
| Patriots vs. spread bills: | Charges -6.5 |
Patriots vs. betting preview Bills
The Bills have been cruising, and their new home has been good to them so far. This is their third straight game at New Highmark, and they have scored 65 points in the first two. They allowed 47, and the Houston game was a 36-31 shootout, so the defense has some questions, but Allen has answers for now. The 30-year-old is angling for a second MVP award after winning it in 2024, as he has 786 passing yards (ninth in the NFL), with five TDs and two interceptions. But he also had 114 yards on the ground and added six rushing TDs to his NFL record for a quarterback, as he already has 85 for his career. His backfield mate James Cook III is third in the NFL in rushing yards with 346. The Bills’ offense ranks fourth in the NFL in both total yards (401.7) and rushing yards per game (155.0). The passing offense is ninth (246.7), and Allen spreads the ball around. Tight end Dalton Kincaid has been a star, leading the team with 263 receiving yards, and DJ Moore (167) and Keon Coleman (101) are both over 100 receiving yards in three games. Josh Palmer had two catches — a 43-yard TD and a 34-yard score. The defense has had its issues, allowing 361.3 total yards per game (25th in the NFL) and 254.3 through the air (27th), and the Bills are allowing 26 points per game (20th). They are minus-2 in turnover differential, but the Patriots are minus-5 and tied for the NFL lead with eight giveaways. Bet $5+ on Patriots-Bills in NFL Week 4 with the latest DraftKings promo code and get $150 in bonus bets:
New England’s defense did its part as Maye and the offense struggled. The unit is fifth in the NFL in total defense (278.3 yards per game) and is allowing just 17 points per contest. New England had seven sacks, led by linebackers Elijah Ponder and Gabe Jacas with 1.5 each. It had three takeaways but couldn’t overcome the mistakes of its own offense. Maye has struggled and is losing confidence, as he has just one touchdown against six interceptions and has been sacked nine times. He’s had trouble finding a reliable receiving option since newcomer AJ Brown went down with an ankle injury, as no Pats receiver has scored yet. So far, only Eli Raridon has a receiving touchdown. Mack Hollins and Romeo Doubs combined for 18 receptions for 301 yards, and tight end Hunter Henry averaged 10 yards on his seven catches. The Patriots have talent in the backfield but are 14th in rushing at 109.7 yards per game. Rhamondre Stevenson had 116 rushing yards and 63 receiving yards, with Hollins the only Patriot with more than Stevenson’s nine receptions. TreVeyon Henderson is averaging 4.1 yards per carry and has 99 rushing yards and a TD in two games.
The road team won each meeting last season, with the Patriots earning a 23-20 victory at old Highmark and Buffalo winning a 36-31 shootout in their most recent meeting in Foxborough in December. The Bills erased a 21-0 first-half deficit with five straight touchdowns as they ended the Patriots’ 10-game winning streak with that one. The Bills are 9-4 against New England this decade, but three of those victories have come in the past three seasons. The Bills are 11-9 against the spread in their past 20 regular-season games and 3-3 ATS in division games last season. They are 6-3 OVER as a home favorite since the start of last season and 10-8 ATS as a favorite in that span. New England is 12-6-2 against the spread since last season, including 4-4-1 ATS as an underdog, Bet on NFL Week 4 games with BetMGM bonus code CBSSPORTS to get up to $1,500 in bonus bets:
Patriots picks vs. Bills, guess
Charges -6.5
The SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates each game 10,000 times, doesn’t have a strong play in the game, but it has Buffalo covering the spread in 51% of its simulations, and SportsLine NFL expert RJ White likes the Buffalo play. Maye’s offensive line has let him down, and while last week’s win over the Bills wasn’t great, the pundit doesn’t expect those issues to last. He’s less confident in the Patriots after their sloppy loss. “I don’t see the Bills’ issues sticking around, but I have serious concerns about this Patriots team,” White said. “Maybe the Patriots defense bounces back and keeps the Bills within a margin, but I’ll trust Josh Allen to build a multiple-score lead that Maye can’t overcome.” Bet $5+ on Patriots-Bills in Week 4 with the latest DraftKings promo code and get $150 in bonus bets: