NFL Week 7 Recap: Instant fantasy football takeaways from Patriots-Bears

  • Rhammondre Stevenson leading the three-person round: While the New England Patriots running back didn’t do much on the ground, he led the Patriots in receiving yards with 92, thanks in part to a touchdown to end the first half.
  • AJ BrownThe playing time is back, but not his production: Brown’s snap rate was the highest since he joined the Patriots, but he caught just three passes for 48 yards.

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New England Patriots @ Chicago Bears

Corey Kiner remains part of the running back rotation for New England: The former Arizona Cardinals running back turned the Patriots’ backfield into a three-man committee.

The Patriots were uneasy with their third running back spot during training camp, leading the team to trade for Kiner on cutdown day. He played eight snaps in Week 1 while TreVeyon Henderson was out with an injury. Kiner played four normal snaps and 10 garbage time snaps over the next three weeks.

Henderson suffered a high ankle sprain in Week 5, which led to Kiner playing 15 snaps. While Henderson did play last week, Kiner was surprisingly still part of the rotation with 12 snaps. All of those snaps came in the final 17 minutes of the game, but he played well in his opportunity.

This week, New England continues to play consistently on third downs, during two-minute drills and in short-yardage situations. Outside of that, New England often has a key running back on every drive. Stevenson took the first drive, Henderson the second and Kiner the third. Kiner played just two snaps on that possession, so New England brought him back on the fifth drive. The Patriots played from behind throughout the second half, causing the team to focus primarily on Stevenson.

So far, this has only hurt Henderson’s playing time, and not Stevenson’s. Henderson was a full participant in practice all week, so it’s unclear if Kiner’s increased usage is just related to Henderson’s injury or if Henderson has a smaller role now. There were also times last season when Henderson made some good plays, but then saw a reduced workload for weeks in a row.

As long as this trend continues, Stevenson could stay in fantasy starting lineups as long as the matchup goes well, while Henderson may not be in the starting lineup. If this continues after New England’s extended time off, Henderson could be released to some of the minor leagues.

Patriots settle for nothing Romeo Doubs: The Patriots’ second wide receiver option went on injured reserve on Monday.

The Patriots’ wide receiver room only stayed intact for a few quarters in Week 1 before the depth chart started taking hits. AJ Brown was placed on injured reserve after Week 1, Mack Hollins a few weeks later and now Doubs, their top three outside wide receivers.

The good news is that Brown, who played just 77% of the snaps last week, was a full participant in Wednesday’s practice. He was able to play a more regular workload for this matchup, only occasionally leaving the field for short-yardage, obvious run situations. Just like last week, when Doubs left with an injury, Efton Chism III played 12 personnel and some of the early-down 11 personnel snaps, while Kyle Williams played more pronounced passing-down sets. This is similar to how Hollins and Doubs were played in Week 1, with Chism in Hollins’ role and Williams in Doubs’ role.

Douglas spent the entire season as the Patriots’ 11-man slot receiver. He received some snaps in the 12 personnel after not playing in the 12 personnel last week.

As long as New England’s wide receivers continue in this role, it’s impossible to trust anyone but Brown for fantasy purposes. In this particular game, Rhamondre Stevenson and the tight ends got most of the receiving production.

Chicago is more hopeful D’Andre Swift: Swift hit a season high in snap rate.

Swift usually leads the two-year rotation with Kyle Monangai, with the two being used interchangeably. Monangai has missed the last three games with thumb and foot injuries, and hasn’t been able to practice all week. Unfortunately, Swift hasn’t been 100% either, appearing on the injury report heading into Weeks 4 and 5 with hip and knee injuries.

Swift’s playing time dropped from 65% in the first three weeks to 50% in the last three, despite the unnecessary rotation of Mongai. Roschon Johnson became the backup running back, while Zavier Scott was elevated again from the practice squad to be the Bears’ third back.

Swift was not on the injury report this week, so he stayed on the field more often. He played each of the game’s first 20 snaps on the first four drives despite wearing a knee helmet. Swift is off to a safe start, but now his upside will be even higher, at least until Mongai is closer to 100%. Some hope Mongai will be ready next week.

Those desperate for a running back could have started with Johnson. Johnson shouldn’t be in the starting lineups regardless of where he sits on the Bears’ depth chart next week.

Follow up Cole Farmerhealth of: Kmet suffered a knee injury late in the fourth quarter and was taken off the field.

Kmet spent the season as Chicago’s second tight end, playing 63% of the Bears’ offensive snaps through the first six weeks. He played 100% of the 12 and 13 personnel snaps, and took some reps from Loveland on early downs. He scored a touchdown in Week 1, but was otherwise fantasy-relevant. He set season highs in receptions (3) and yards (28) in this game.

Fortunately, Chicago invested a third-round pick in tight end Sam Roush, who played 100% of 13 personnel snaps this season. He slides into Kmet’s role to close out this game and will allow Chicago to continue to play a highly rated 12 man as long as Kmet is out. Chicago can still use 13 personnel if it chooses, including Stephen Carlson on the practice squad or other free-agent options.

Kmet’s release will have little fantasy impact on the rest of the Bears’ offense. This could mean potentially less rotation of Colston Loveland in the 11 man, and possibly less in the 13 and 12 man, leading to less playing time for Luther Burden III and Kalif Raymond.

Miscellaneous Notes

  • Luther Burden III saw an increase in snaps to 12 personnel, though Kalif Raymond still played more snaps. Burden’s route involvement in this game was similar to his season average, about two-thirds of the passes. His target rate was lower than his season average; he just made big plays whenever he was given the chance.
  • Colston Loveland’s playing time has been consistent throughout the season, but his target rate has been higher in the last two weeks than his average in the first five.
  • The Patriots continued their recent tight end rotation, with Hunter Henry leading the way with 11 early downs and dominating snaps on third down, while Eli Raridon joined him big with 12. Raridon’s target rate was higher than usual, fueling his big game. His route involvement isn’t enough to start considering him in fantasy starting lineups, but heRaridon remains the top end to target for someone who could break out in the second half of the season.
  • New England tight end Tanner Arkin is back in the lineup after being healthy inactive last week.

Table Note

• Snaps include plays called back due to penalties, such as offensive holding or defensive pass interference. The other three statistics do not include these plays.

• Targets may differ from official NFL sources. The most likely difference is a clear thrown-away pass, where the NFL can give the target to the closest receiver, while this data does not.

• Carries are only in design plays. Quarterback scrambles do not count toward the total number of carries in the game.

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