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Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cleveland Browns
The Browns are more hopeful Quinshon Judkins: The second-year running back reached new highs in terms of snap rate.
Judkins averaged just 50.1% of the snaps as a rookie as the Browns’ primary running back on early downs, but Dylan Sampson has rotated heavily as his backup, while Jerome Ford is the passing-down back. Cleveland did not re-sign Ford, and Sampson suffered an injury that landed him on injured reserve early Sunday. That leaves Raheim Sanders as the Browns’ backup. Despite this, Judkins only played 60.3% through the first three weeks.
Judkins played 72.5% of the early-down snaps, which ranked 10th among running backs through the first three weeks. However, Judkins was sacked on third downs and in several short yardage and goal-line situations.
This week, while he wasn’t on the field for obvious passing situations, Judkins played a higher percentage of early-down, short-yardage and goal-line snaps.
Although he hasn’t been very effective as a runner, Judkins scored a goal-line touchdown for Cleveland and was involved in the passing game. He caught a career-high six passes in this game after tying his career high with five two weeks ago. Despite his inefficiencies, if the Browns’ offense plays well enough for Judkins to score touchdowns and he continues to be a priority in the passing game, it will be easier to slot him into fantasy starting lineups going forward.
Jerry JewdyThe role of: The veteran wide receiver is in the rotation for the third wide receiver spot.
Jeudy was the Browns’ top wide receiver last season, but the additions of Denzel Boston and KC Concepcion Jr. has put Jeudy’s spot on the depth chart in jeopardy. In the first two weeks, Boston is the X receiver in all personnel groups. Jeudy and Concepcion split with 12 personnel, while Jeudy is the Z and Concepcion is the slot with 11 personnel. Jeudy wasn’t even a full-time player on the 11 man, with Tylan Wallace taking one-third of the man’s 11 snaps, mostly from Jeudy.
Last week, Jeudy’s playing time decreased even more, with Concepcion playing more than 12 men. That left Jeudy with just two of 12 snaps on 12 personnel. If anything, it looks like Jeudy will see more playing time this week. Wallace was inactive with a knee injury, so Jeudy was thought to play more than the usual 11-man. Instead, Malachi Corley was more involved. Concepcion’s playing time increased this week, so when Isaiah Bond was on the field, it was Jeudy’s replacement. In the first three weeks, when Bond was on the field, it was mostly for Concepcion.
This game is good news for Concepcion’s fantasy value, as his snap share is at its ceiling. Jeudy has no fantasy value in this role, and his best path to value right now is either an injury to Boston or Concepcion, or a trade.
Jaylen Warren shining for the second week in a row: The Steelers running back made the case that Pittsburgh is the leading running back going forward.
Warren spent his career as part of a two-man rotation, first with Najee Harris, then with Kenneth Gainwell, then with Rico Dowdle. During the first four years of his career, his competition for playing time remained healthy. He played 54.7% of the snaps through the first two weeks of this season while in a rotation. Dowdle missed last week with a foot injury, giving us our first look at what Warren’s playing time will look like without strong competition.
He dominated the playing time in all situations last week, and he did it again this week. There have been three instances of a running back playing more than 90% of the snaps in a game this season, and Warren has had two of them.
In both games, he showed that he can be effective in high totals. While there is optimism that Dowdle will return next week, Warren is clearly ahead of Dowdle in every statistical measure through the first four weeks of the season. We should expect Warren to take the lead going forward, but it could be a 55-45 split, an 80-20 split, or anywhere in between. The split will determine whether Warren is a starter in a given matchup or a must-start option.
The Steelers are revamping their wide receiver rotation: Pittsburgh uses its wide receivers differently each week.
In Week 1, Pittsburgh’s wide receiver rotation was straightforward, with DK Metcalf and Michael Pittman Jr. were playing in the 11 and 12 personnel and Roman Wilson joined the 11. Pittman missed Week 2 with a foot injury, which led to Wilson taking his place in the 12 personnel, and second-round rookie Germie Bernard took over behind, Pittman only 11%. of snaps. Wilson returned to his usual role in the first half, but a drop that turned into an interception led Pittsburgh to turn to Bernard with 11 men in the second half. Also with Ben Skowronek.
This week, Pittman was not on the injury report, but his role was reduced again. In particular, with 11 personnel, he was rotated more than any other week. Unlike last week’s second half, Wilson returned to being the main player in the 11 man, but he was also rotated a little more than usual. Generally, Bernard takes snaps from Pittman and Z and Skowronek assume snaps from Wilson in the slot. The Steelers also used 12 more personnel than usual. Pittman’s decreased playing time will be even more apparent if the Steelers stick with their usual mix of 11 and 12 men.
It’s possible Pittman still isn’t 100%, and the Steelers have also been conservative in a short week. It’s also possible that the Steelers started to like Bernard and Wilson as much as Pittman as a receiver. Pittman has consistently played in 12 personnel over the past two weeks, so they still prefer Pittman’s blocking to the best of the three.
It makes sense to hold Pittman for a week to see what his usage looks like after a long layoff. If the Steelers rotate their wide receivers to 11 personnel in Week 5, it’s fine to drop him after that.
Miscellaneous Notes
- Steelers seventh-round rookie running back Eli Heidenreich was a healthy inactive for the second straight week. Travis Homer became the Steelers’ backup running back along with Rico Dowdle, while Lew Nichols was a practice squad call-up to be the third running back as of last week.
- Roman Wilson missed part of the fourth quarter with an injury, but returned for the final 10 seconds of the game.
Table Note
- Snaps include plays called back due to penalties, such as offensive holding or defensive pass interference. The other three statistics do not include these plays.
- Targets may differ from official NFL sources. The most likely difference is from a clearly thrown pass, where the NFL can assign the target to the nearest receiver, while this data does not.
- Carries are only in design plays. Quarterback scrambles do not count toward the total number of carries in the game.