NFL Week 3: Same-game parlays

• Kyler Murray draws a favorable matchup in coverage: Tampa Bay played single-high coverage nearly 70% of the time, a structure that continues to perform well against Murray.

• Patrick Mahomes can attack Miami: The Dolphins allowed the fifth-most explosive plays, while Tyquan Thornton emerged as Kansas City’s primary deep threat.

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Kyler Murray appeared in his first game back in Minnesota

Building our matchup angle around Tampa Bay’s struggles to generate pressure, we can lean on the Kyler Murray passing game through an SGP.

In addition to struggling to generate pressure early this season, Tampa Bay has played single-high coverage nearly 70% of the time, the second-highest rate in the NFL and roughly in line with its strategy last season.

Despite rarely facing single-high coverage last season, Murray was dominant when he did, ranking third in EPA per game against those looks. That fits a long-term trend, as Murray has performed better against single-high than two-high coverage every season of his career.

Also in favor of this bet is Tampa Bay’s long-standing tendency to operate as a pass-funnel defense, performing better against the run than the pass. As a result, opponents continue to throw against the Buccaneers at one of the highest rates relative to expectations. That trend has continued this season, with opponents passing against Tampa Bay at the second-highest rate in the NFL.

Also with an injury-hit running back room, Murray should be positioned to throw often against a defense that struggles to generate pressure and relies heavily on a coverage structure that he has traditionally performed well.

SGP Build: 24-1

• Kyler Murray, Minnesota Vikings: 32+ passing attempts
• Kyler Murray, Minnesota Vikings: 270+ passing yards
• Minnesota Vikings: -3.5

Patrick Mahomes piled up the yards against the Dolphins, but he didn’t need many attempts to get there

The Dolphins defense has struggled mightily this early season, especially when it comes to stopping explosive plays. Miami allowed the fifth-most explosive plays in the NFL while tackling deep passes at the seventh-highest rate, despite spending so much time chasing.

Enter Tyquan Thornton, who has emerged as the Chiefs’ primary deep threat. He owns one of the longest average target depths in the league and has excelled at creating separation downfield. Against a Miami defense that has the second-worst pressure rate in the NFL, Patrick Mahomes should have plenty of time to let those deeper routes develop and get some shots Thornton’s way.

If Mahomes connects with Thornton on one or two of those deep shots, the struggles of Miami’s offense could create exactly the game script we want for this final leg of the SGP. Kansas City can build an early lead and move toward protecting it, allowing Mahomes to pile up passing yards on explosive plays without requiring significant passing volume.

SGP Build: 50-1

• QB Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs: 280+ passing yards
• WR Tyquan Thornton, Kansas City Chiefs: 70+ receiving yards
• QB Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs: Under 30.5 tests pass

Dontayvion Wicks continues as the WR2 in Philadelphia

One week, another SGP featuring Dontayvion Wicks. Wicks missed part of the Week 2 game with an injury, but he firmly established himself as the WR2 in this offense, running a route on 77% of the Eagles’ passes.

Now he’s got a Bears defense that opened the season as the most man-heavy unit in the NFL, playing man coverage on half of its snaps. That means plenty of opportunities against fourth-round rookie Malik Muhammad, who has struggled early, particularly in man coverage, where he ranks in the 90th percentile in yards allowed per coverage snap.

Meanwhile, Wicks has been excellent against man coverage, both early this season and throughout his career. He consistently ranked in the 80th percentile or better in both separation and yards per route run against man.

There’s another factor working in this game’s favor: The Eagles’ rushing offense has struggled mightily to start the season, ranking fourth-worst in the NFL in pass rush. It wouldn’t be surprising to see Philadelphia lean more on the passing game and find success against this Bears defense, creating the volume we need for Hurts and Wicks.

SGP Build: 50-1

• QB Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles: 270+ passing yards and 32+ passing attempts
• WR Dontayvion Wicks, Philadelphia Eagles: 80+ receiving yards
• Philadelphia Eagles: -3.5