NFL spread, straight-up picks: Vikings, Ravens, Bills top confidence rankings for Week 4

In the classic Seinfeld episode “The Opposite,” Kramer refers to Jerry as “Even Steven” because everything for him always evens out.

In real life, that doesn’t sound so bad!

But when it comes to picking straight-up winners and betting games in the NFL … to quote former New York Yankees manager Joe Girardi’s famous catchphrase: “It’s not what you want.”

After going 12-4 in Week 1 then 9-7 in Week 2, I went 8-8 picking winners in Week 3. Just call me Even Steven.

It’s time for another winning week. Or another Even Steven slate. Let’s find out!

As always, if you choose to wager your hard-earned money on Week 4 in the National Football League, please gamble responsibly. I will.

Now, onto the games, starting with the straight-up prediction I feel most confident in (16) through the least (1).

NFL confidence picks

16. Dolphins at Vikings

• Straight-up pick: Vikings
• ATS pick: Vikings -10.5 (anything below -13)
• ATS confidence level: 12
• On my betting card: Yes

Last week, we instituted a new rule: picking against the Dolphins and weighting that high in the confidence rankings.

To borrow another Seinfeld routine: “Yada yada yada, it was a success, and here we are again.”

Chiefs 24, Dolphins 10. Chef’s kiss.

As it concerns the other team: All summer long, I talked up the Vikings to win the NFC North. I have bet them in each of the first three games. They are 3-0, both straight up and against the spread, and currently lead the division.

Skol, indeed.

But if I’m being honest, I’m worried about them. The offense stinks. Kyler Murray looks like he’d rather be playing “Call of Duty” than sitting back in the pocket. Starting running back Jordan Mason is on injured reserve. And star receiver Justin Jefferson is dealing with an ankle sprain.

There are, however, two pieces of excellent news:

• Brian Flores is still the defensive coordinator and his group has been incredible.
• They’re playing the aforementioned Dolphins this Sunday.

Look, the Dolphins do have a bunch of good young players. In particular, rookie linebacker Jacob Rodriguez is an absolute stud. But they are otherwise atrocious and just lost star running back De’Von Achane for the season. They should probably be playing alongside the Miami Hurricanes in the ACC instead of the Buffalo Bills in the AFC East.

The Vikings offense might be bad, but how many points do they realistically need to cover the big spread? 20?

I’ve been wrong before (many times, just ask my wife) and I can be wrong here, but I would be absolutely floored if Miami had any type of real offensive success here against the Flores-led defense.

Give me the Vikings to win and cover — even if Jefferson doesn’t play — and improve to 4-0. Even if they aren’t as good as that record says they are.

15. Titans at Ravens

• Straight-up pick: Ravens
• ATS pick: Ravens -11.5 (anything below -13)
• ATS confidence level: 14
• On my betting card: Yes

I sincerely mean no disrespect to the Dolphins or their fans when I say this, but they are clearly the worst team in football right now. But my question is: Which team is the second worst? It’s the Titans, right? Is there even a viable challenger?

The Titans aren’t just 0-3. They’re dysfunctional. They’re poorly coached. The 2025 first overall pick at quarterback, Cam Ward, looks like a bust. And they just lost to Jameis Winston and the Giants.

The only music in the Music City right now is the sad horn from the Price is Right on repeat.

I’m not saying they can’t turn it around. Crazier things have happened in the NFL. But the Titans beating the Ravens … that would be really damn crazy.

The Ravens are coming off an impressive win over the Cowboys in Brazil. Lamar Jackson looks great. Zay Flowers is back in the lineup. Derrick Henry continues to stiff-arm Father Time. I’m a little concerned about injuries on the interior of the offensive line going up against stud Titans defensive tackle Jeffrey Simmons, but not enough to talk me out of this selection.

14. Patriots at Bills

• Straight-up pick: Bills
• ATS pick: Bills -6.5 (no higher)
• ATS confidence level: 7
• On my betting card: No

Which NFL quarterback has been the most disappointing so far?

In my best Justin Timberlake voice: “It’s gotta be Maye.”

What the heck has happened to Drake Maye? He started the Super Bowl this calendar year! He nearly won league MVP! And now he malfunctions in big moments like robots you see on social media.

Perhaps it’s a good omen that the 1-2 Patriots are headed to Buffalo, where Maye’s star turn began last October in a 23-20 upset of the Bills.

Do I think that will happen again? Do I believe Maye turns it around against a beatable Bills defense? Hell no.

There will be a spot for us to bet on the Patriots. Maye is too good to be this bad for much longer. But this isn’t the time.

Head coach Mike Vrabel and offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels are doing a terrible job, and Josh Allen should light up the defense after a rare subpar game from him last week against the Chargers.

Our friends at Seinfeld may love the Drake. But this Sunday, I don’t.

13. Chiefs at Raiders

• Straight-up pick: Chiefs
• ATS pick: Chiefs -4.5 (anything below -6)
• ATS confidence level: 15
• On my betting card: Yes

I would like to formally apologize to the great fans of the Las Vegas Raiders, and not just because I’m picking the Chiefs.

I said all summer that the Raiders were making a huge mistake starting Kirk Cousins over Fernando Mendoza. And I thought it was nuts for them to keep Maxx Crosby after the trade fell apart. While I expressed genuine excitement over the Raiders’ future, I thought they would stink this year.

Man, was I wrong. Even if the season goes haywire from here, I was wrong. That’s how good this start has been.

Klint Kubiak looks like the real deal at coach. Cousins is dealing. The defense has good young pieces, including rookie corner Hezekiah Masses. And tight end Brock Bowers is an alien. (I don’t say this lightly: he will go to the Hall of Fame if he can stay healthy.)

The NFL is more fun when the Raiders are good. And even though I’ve picked against them every week (what an idiot), I’m enjoying their start.

Next sentence: the Chiefs are going to beat them and cover the spread.

Maybe I’ll just be wrong about the Raiders again, but I don’t think they’re on the Chiefs’ level.

The Saints turned it over four times against the Raiders and were on the wrong end of a pretty awful call on a fumble. The result was a little fluky. I’m not suggesting that the Raiders should have lost last week, but I do look at it a little side-eyed.

The Chiefs are also just better. Mahomes is back. Kenneth Walker III looks like the best back in football. Travis Kelce had anything but a cruel summer and looks the best he has in a long time.

If I’m wrong and the Raiders prevail, I’ll recite the Autumn Wind on “You Better You Bet” as penance.

12. Packers at Bucs

• Straight-up pick: Packers
• ATS pick: Packers -3.5 (up to -4)
• ATS confidence level: 4
• On my betting card: No

This iteration of the “Battle of the Bays” had way more juice before the season started.

The Packers should be 0-3. The only reason they’re not is because Jets head coach Aaron Glenn manages the clock like me in the dark trying to turn my iPhone alarm off before my 2-year-old daughter wakes up. Their offensive line is banged up and bad. Jordan Love isn’t playing well. They can’t run the ball at all. Micah Parsons remains out.

And somehow the 0-3 Bucs are even worse!

Baker Mayfield was playing terribly, but you’d prefer he be healthy. His dislocated thumb means Jalon Daniels will start. It would be okay if an undrafted rookie from Kansas started a game in the NBA. But in the NFL? Yikes.

In all seriousness, Daniels was awesome over the summer in winning the backup job, and the Packers do stink, so there’s an upside case to be made. But I just can’t see Green Bay losing to a quarterback who couldn’t beat Cincinnati last year. Not the Cincinnati Bengals. The Cincinnati Bearcats.

11. Steelers at Browns

• Straight-up pick: Steelers
• ATS pick: Steelers -2.5 (anything below -3)
• ATS confidence level: 13
• On my betting card: Yes

I cannot wait for this game.

The Steelers got off the offensive schneid this past Sunday, dropping 30 on the resurgent Bengals defense. Aaron Rodgers was terrific, as was running back Jaylen Warren and I love their defense.

But we need to credit the Browns. They are somehow 2-1 after winning their home opener over the Panthers in the closing minutes. The defense has been very good since getting shredded by the Jaguars in Week 1 — with defensive tackle Mason Graham, last year’s fifth overall pick, looking like an absolute star.

I don’t foresee a ton of points being scored by either team, so this comes down to which offense I have more confidence in — and that is unquestionably the Steelers.

Mike McCarthy’s decision to retool the right side of the offensive line has paid immediate dividends. They should give Rodgers enough time to make plays.

As for Deshaun Watson, I’d guess he turns into a pumpkin sooner rather than later. Good thing he’s already wearing orange.

10. Lions at Panthers

• Straight-up pick: Lions
• ATS pick: Lions -3.5 (no further)
• ATS confidence level: 5
• On my betting card: No

Last Sunday was a no-good, very bad game for the Panthers. They blew a late lead in Cleveland to drop to 1-2. And to add injury to insult, star corner Jaycee Horn will miss significant time after tearing his quad. And to add injury to injury (never a good thing!), emerging star receiver Jalen Coker suffered a quad strain, and his status is uncertain as of this writing.

And while I was writing that, Lions running back Jahmyr Gibbs just scored another touchdown.

Gibbs is ridiculously good. So is Amon-Ra St. Brown. I have a hard time figuring out how the Panthers will stop the Lions from dropping 30-plus in this game.

I am not a fan of the Lions defense. If the Jets had competent offensive coaching, they would have scored enough to potentially win the game. So it doesn’t make me feel good to back them against a team with a functional offense, which the Panthers do possess. But for as much as I like Bryce Young, he’s not Jared Goff. And the Lions are a flat-out better team.

9. Chargers at Seahawks

• Straight-up pick: Seahawks
• ATS pick: Chargers +7.5 (anything +7 or better)
• ATS confidence level: 10
• On my betting card: Yes

There is almost nothing my daughter could do to draw my ire. She can whine, she can complain, she can yell, she can say “no” to everything (including things she loves), she can wrap her legs around the high chair like an anaconda to avoid being taken out of it — and I’ll still defend her to the death, usually to my exasperated wife.

“She’s only 2!”

“She’s probably hungry!”

“She’s probably tired!”

So on the extremely rare occasions that I offer even a tepid criticism of her conduct, it’s because my near-infinite well of patience has been drained.

How does this relate to football?

For the duration of his time in Los Angeles, Jim Harbaugh has done nothing but praise Justin Herbert to the high heavens. Listening to Harbaugh, you’d think Herbert was an amalgamation of Joe Montana and an almighty being. The overwhelming adulation has long since been the main act of the theater of the absurd, descending into parody as the Chargers have stunk so far.

But no more! Earlier this week, Harbaugh said Herbert needs to “be better,” which might as well be him saying Herbert sucks and is an awful human being.

This tells me Harbaugh has had enough. And it’s about time.

The Chargers somehow lost — and didn’t cover — a game in which they won the turnover battle by four!! It’s almost impossible. But that’s how bad the Chargers have been.

Now that Harbaugh has had it with Herbert, I actually feel more confident in their ability to keep it close. I didn’t pick them to cover last week. I will this week.

The Seahawks are coming off a fluky road loss. I’m not concerned about them. But one thing is true: their run game, at the moment, is broken. Their first-round running back, Jadarian Price, puts the ball on the ground more than Jalen Brunson. And the Bolts defense came to play against the Bills.

Will the Chargers win this? I don’t think so. Will they cover the spread? Yes.

If I’m wrong, you can do your best Harbaugh impression and tell me to “be better.”

8. Jaguars at Bengals

• Straight-up pick: Jaguars
• ATS pick: Jaguars +2.5 (+3 ideal if you can snag it)
• ATS confidence level: 11
• On my betting card: Yes

Bengals fans, I know you were upset with me that I picked the Steelers last week. I happened to be right, but that doesn’t mean I think your team is bad. On the contrary: I believe the Bengals are really good.

Now, time for the plot twist. *cracks knuckles*

They just aren’t as good as the Jaguars.

Joe Burrow is better than Trevor Lawrence. You won’t find me saying otherwise. But Liam Coen coaches circles around Zac Taylor. It’s the difference between a gun and a knife. Not a fair fight.

And for all the hullabaloo about the Bengals defense, they did get shredded by the Steelers. What do you think the Jags are about to do?

NFL fans are sleeping on the Jaguars as a Super Bowl contender. They are flat-out better than the Bengals. And that makes this a “WTF” game: Wrong Team Favored.

7. Cardinals at Giants

• Straight-up pick: Cardinals
• ATS pick: Cardinals as a pick’em or plus-money
• ATS confidence level: 9
• On my betting card: Yes

It usually doesn’t happen where your favorite football team wins and you still find yourself mired in sports depression, but such is the life of a New York Giants fan.

Yes, the Giants beat the Titans, but it featured a pathetic offensive performance while the defense nearly collapsed in the waning moments against Cam Ward. The defense recorded zero sacks and their best pass rusher, Brian Burns, was lost for the season. Pass rusher Abdul Carter is on a milk carton. And on Monday, they traded for J.J. McCarthy.

Other than that, things are great for the G-Men!

The Cards might not be great, or even good. But they are competent and Jacoby Brissett is absolutely better than Jameis Winston. They fought hard against the 49ers, falling short of an upset win but doing enough to cover the spread.

I want to be optimistic as a Giants fan. Badly. But I also need to be realistic and, right now, the Cardinals are a better team.

Excuse me while I wipe the tears off my keyboard.

6. Broncos at 49ers

• Straight-up pick: 49ers if Mike Evans and Trent Williams play — if they miss, go Broncos
• ATS pick: Broncos +3 (has to be +3 or better)
• ATS confidence level: 2
• On my betting card: Yes (only if Evans and Williams don’t play)

The 49ers were my preseason Super Bowl pick. I am loving the 3-0 start.

Also, their players are once again dropping like flies. As of this writing, we don’t know if future first-ballot Hall of Fame receiver Mike Evans will play. We don’t know if future first-ballot HOF left tackle Trent Williams will play. Linebacker Dre Greenlaw could also miss. And this doesn’t account for all the players already out, including star pass rusher Nick Bosa and approximately 79 other defensive linemen.

We also have to give credit to the Broncos. They overcame second-half deficits to the Jaguars (13-3 to 20-13) and Rams (16-0 to 30-26) to win both games. Sean Payton is going to the HOF when his coaching career is done. They won 14 games last season and have earned some benefit of the doubt.

And yet, I don’t really believe in them.

Bo Nix is like the final season of “Game of Thrones”: some great play juxtaposed with some of the worst you’ll ever see. We’ll see if he can land the plane better than Jon Snow and Khaleesi did. And his counterpart, Brock Purdy, is playing at an MVP level. That will be the difference in the game.

Give me the 49ers to win and the Broncos to cover. I don’t think San Fran wins by more than three.

But if Evans, Williams and Greenlaw are all out … well, you’re on your own here, kid.

5. Colts vs. Commanders in London

• Straight-up pick: Colts
• ATS pick: Commanders +3.5 (must be +3.5 or better)
• ATS confidence level: 3
• On my betting card: No

I don’t know about you, but I adore a 9:30 a.m. ET kickoff to get the juices flowing on an NFL Sunday.

This game should be a good one, with both teams coming off needed wins to avoid 0-3 starts. The Colts squeaked past the embarrassing Texans while the Commanders shocked the defending champion Seahawks. The winner will be 2-2 and very much alive in their respective division and conference races.

Washington was awesome last week. The Commanders forced turnovers, Marcus Mariota made huge throws … and they were outgained (437 to 251) on a yards-per-play basis (6.8 to 4.0) and had 11 fewer first downs (28 to 17), so forgive me for being skeptical in their ability to keep it rolling.

Now, I’m not the biggest fan of this Colts team. The defense looked way better than it actually is because the Texans offense can’t function. Say what you want about Shane Steichen and Daniel Jones, but they run a functional offense. I expect them to emerge from London with a victory and a cover.

4. Cowboys at Texans

• Straight-up pick: Texans
• ATS pick: Texans -2.5 (anything less than -3)
• ATS confidence level: 6
• On my betting card: Yes, but only if Nico Collins plays

The Cowboys and Texans are both already in a Texas-sized hole. (I know, I’m very clever, thank you.)

Dallas is 1-2 and lost in a ridiculous fashion to Baltimore in Brazil. The players played well enough to win, but the coaching staff coached poorly enough to lose. In the end, poor coaching decisions from head coach Brian Schottenheimer and defensive coordinator Christian Parker cost the Cowboys game they probably should have won.

As for this 0-3 Houston team, to paraphrase Macaulay Culkin in “Home Alone”: Nick, your AFC Championship pick, woof!

Yes, I picked the Texans to represent the AFC in Super Bowl LXI, and, yes, it’s aging worse than an old sitcom rife with cultural stereotypes.

The Texans defense — thought by many (including me) to be one of the finest units in the league — can only be characterized as a massive disappointment. On the other side, they’re setting offensive football back to the Mesozoic era, with an approach so conservative it should be on the primetime block of Newsmax. The offensive line can’t protect, they can’t run the ball and C.J. Stroud doesn’t seem able to overcome all of their issues. At least Nico Collins should be back.

I’ve gone back and forth on this one. I trust Dak way more than I trust Stroud. And the Cowboys offense might be the best unit in the game. But I just can’t imagine the Texans dropping to 0-4.

That’s not the best reason to pick a winner, but at this point, it’s all I’ve got.

3. Jets at Bears

• Straight-up pick: Jets
• ATS pick: Jets +3.5 (down to +3)
• ATS confidence level: 16
• On my betting card: Yes

I have bet the Jets in each of the first three games of the season, so I doubt you’ll be surprised when I say this: I love the setup here for Gang Green.

Yes, I’m aware that sounds crazy and not just because I bet the Jets in every game.

The Bears just dominated the Eagles, and did so with a third-string quarterback in 38-year-old Case Keenum. Head coach Ben Johnson and defensive coordinator Dennis Allen were masterful. They made it clear that backup Tyson Bagent would start this Sunday as Caleb Williams recovers from a hamstring injury.

But here’s the thing: the Bears defense stinks. The Eagles might not have been able to score on them, but I’m confident the Jets can.

If their offensive line — specifically the tackle tandem of Ola Fashanu and Armand Membou, who have disappointed the last two games — holds up, Geno Smith should cook the Bears secondary. There’s no reason that Garrett Wilson and Kenyon Sadiq shouldn’t dominate. I’m also expecting good things from the run game, even without Breece Hall.

The Bears are very hyped at the moment, deservedly so. They’re also starting a backup quarterback while their defense lacks talent.

Give me the Jets to cover — and win. What could possibly go wrong?

(Don’t answer that, Aaron Glenn.)

2. Rams at Eagles

• Straight-up pick: Eagles
• ATS pick: Eagles +3 (anything +3 or higher)
• ATS confidence level: 8
• On my betting card: Yes

The Rams are in a spot of trouble.

Before you get all hot and bothered, I said a “spot” of trouble. Not huge trouble. They’re not going to miss the playoffs. They can still win the Super Bowl. But the margins are fine in the NFL.

Last year, the Rams blew double-digit second-half leads in Philadelphia and Seattle, and those losses ultimately cost them home-field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs. Had they not collapsed in those games, the Seahawks would have gone to Los Angeles for the NFC Championship instead of the Rams going to Seattle, and L.A. could have been Super Bowl champions instead.

It seems like Sean McVay and Co. haven’t learned. This past Sunday night, they inexplicably blew a 16-0 halftime lead and allowed 30 second-half points to Bo Nix as the Broncos came back to win 30-26. It was an embarrassing defeat for the Rams, and when you couple it with the travel fiasco in Week 1 in Australia against the 49ers, it’s possible they will have to go back on the road this January.

We could see Puka Nacua return. But regardless of whether he plays, I’m backing the Eagles.

I know they stunk on Monday night. For the first time in franchise history, they’ve opened the first three games of the season without forcing a single turnover. The run game fell apart in the second half in Chicago. The vibes are not great. They felt like the 2025 Eagles, and that’s not a good thing — the only thing missing was former star receiver A.J. Brown pouting on the sidelines and reading a self-help book.

It’s a good thing, then, that Nick Sirianni absolutely owns the Rams. Sirianni is 4-0 against McVay (including playoffs), and his defensive coordinator, Vic Fangio, is capable of giving McVay and Matthew Stafford fits.

There’s also the travel schedule for the Rams. Week 1 in Australia, Week 2 on Monday night, a short week leading to a night game at altitude in Denver in Week 3, and now a 1 p.m. ET kickoff on the East Coast.

The Eagles will force at least one turnover, and Jalen Hurts will play way better than he did in Chicago. Don’t be shocked if the Rams are 1-3 come Sunday afternoon.

1. Falcons at Saints

• Straight-up pick: Saints
• ATS pick: Saints -2.5 (-2.5 or lower)
• ATS confidence level: 1
• On my betting card: No

This is the 20th anniversary of the legendary first game at the Superdome post-Katrina, best remembered for the legend Steve Gleason’s blocked punt that led to a jubilant Saints win over the rival Falcons. I got goosebumps just typing that sentence.

Falcons-Saints is one of the best rivalries in football. The fanbases don’t like each other. This rivalry doesn’t need any added juice, although it will absolutely have it on Monday night.

Let’s be honest: this game is WAY more exciting than it was a week ago.

The Falcons looked awesome last Thursday, dominating the Packers at Lambeau, 35-14. Michael Penix Jr. eased in after a rough start and got the ball to his all-world playmakers: Bijan Robinson rushed for 194 yards while Drake London had 194 receiving yards. Plus, defensive coordinator Jeff Ulbrich continues to make chicken salad out of, well, you know.

The Saints are 1-2, but could easily be 3-0. I’m bullish on them. They turned it over four times against the Raiders, which is obviously bad, but I still believe they’re good. I won’t let one bad game color my opinion of quarterback Tyler Shough.

Penix makes the Falcons a significantly more dangerous team and, in another circumstance, I might like them to pull the outright upset. But in this game, in that stadium, with that backdrop — I can’t pick against the Saints.