It’s only Week 3, so nothing to clear trophy shelf space yet. Still, the sample size is enough to start thinking about the NFL MVP race. Josh Allen is still the favorite, as he has been in the preseason. There are fellow former winners chasing him, and several players looking to capture the trophy for the first time. The odds will certainly appear after the next big performance, or blow up, until the season is more established. Regardless, it’s time to take a look at the current odds to take home the NFL’s most prestigious award.
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Odds (American)
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Implied Probability
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Josh Allen
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+260
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27.8%
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Brock Purdy
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+425
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19%
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Lamar Jackson
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+600
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14.3%
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Patrick Mahomes
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+800
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11.1%
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Joe Burrow
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+850
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10.5%
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Josh Allen Current MVP Achievement: +260
Allen looks to be the clear favorite heading into week two. He threw for 334 yards and four touchdowns against Houston, then followed it up with five total touchdowns against Detroit. Buffalo scored 36 and 41 points in those wins. When Allen gets going, the Bills could turn a track meet into a track meet very quickly. Week 3 was less convincing. He threw two picks against the Chargers, and Buffalo gave the ball away five times. The Bills still won, with Allen scoring twice on the ground, but James Cook’s 154 rushing yards did a lot of the heavy lifting.
Allen has 11 total touchdowns in three games, and Buffalo is 3-0. The only concern is turnovers, as Allen has been known to make some head-scratching plays along with his jaw-dropping ones.
Brock Purdy Current MVP Odds: +425
Brock Purdy’s MVP odds have increased in 3 weeks. He threw three touchdown passes in a 27-7 win over the Rams, played a near-perfect passing game against Miami, then threw four more touchdowns as Arizona forced the 49ers to a 36-30 shootout. That’s nine passing touchdowns, one interception, and a 3-0 record.
Purdy finished fourth in the 2023 MVP voting, and we’ve heard the same debate about his supporting cast ever since. With multiple receivers hurt, he’s broken that narrative so far this season. 49ers fans have seen this for years, but the rest of the league has woken up to the fact that Purdy is an elite, MVP-caliber quarterback. He had to keep up this pace, of course. But through three games, he’s played like a guy who should be right behind Allen.
Lamar Jackson Current MVP Odds: +600
Jackson’s season has had a little bit of everything. He put up 324 passing yards in Baltimore’s opening win over Indianapolis, struggled with the offense in a Week 2 loss at New Orleans, then helped the Ravens pull out a 34-31 win over Dallas in Brazil. The throw to Zay Flowers that set up the game-winning field goal against Dallas was a potential MVP-signature moment.
Jackson won this award twice, so there is no mystery about his ceiling. The question is whether Baltimore can keep up with the others in wins.
Patrick Mahomes Current MVP Odds: +800
Kansas City is 3-0, and Mahomes is starting to look more like the man some already consider the GOAT. He threw for 382 yards and three touchdowns in a tight win over Indianapolis, then completed 20 of 24 passes against Miami. He has seven passing touchdowns in three games.
Last season wasn’t up to his usual standard, which makes this start more interesting than another Chiefs regular season win. Mahomes missed nothing after a season-ending injury less than a year ago. It’s easy to overlook someone like Mahomes, who we all hope for greatness, and voters are always looking for reasons to give the award to someone new. However, Mahomes’ start to the season is hard to ignore.
Joe Burrow Current MVP Odds: +850
Burrow and the Bengals started 2-0, though the offense wasn’t hitting full speed. He threw one touchdown against Tampa Bay and two in a 20-6 win over Houston. His best passing game came in Week 3: 282 yards and three touchdowns against Pittsburgh. Naturally, that’s what Cincinnati lost because the defense couldn’t stop Aaron Rodgers. The strip sack on the final drive was a brutal finish, but Burrow played well. He has six touchdown passes and just one interception so far.
Burrow’s challenge is familiar. He can put up great numbers, but an MVP case needs the Bengals to keep winning, too. Cincinnati is 2-1, so there’s no reason to count him out yet.
By Jake Koehler
Jake is a sports betting writer at SportsbooksOnline.com, covering the latest sportsbooks, odds news, promos, and betting features across the NFL and beyond. He regularly writes guest articles for Walterfootball, covering everything from predictions to sports betting insights.