MLB Wild Card Game 1 Picks, Betting System and Playoff Handicapping Tips

Anticipation is endless on Day 1 of the MLB playoffs, which is almost 12 straight hours of postseason baseball.

Today’s Wild Card menu, with Game 1 moneyline odds from Circa Sports:

2 pm ET — Braves (-187) vs. Phillies (+173)
📺 NBC

5 pm ET — Astros (-122) vs. White Sox (+110)
📺 NBCSN

8 pm ET — Yankees (-135) vs. Red Sox (+125)
📺 NBC

10 pm ET — Padres (-125) vs. Cubs (+112)
📺 NBCSN

🎯 Adam Burke Has Two Game 1 Plays

Adam Burke pitched all four games in Game 1 and had two official plays for opening day.

>> Adam’s Best MLB Playoff Bets

Steve Makinen finds a postseason angle that immediately applies to three teams are playing today.

Over the past five postseasons, MLB teams that have won less than 90 regular season games are:

49-47 and up (+13 units, 13.5% ROI)
60-36 at the run line (+13.2 units, 13.8% ROI)

… when they’re mismatched against another sub-90-win team.

That gives us three qualifiers now:

✅ Phillies (88-74) against the Braves (94-68)
✅ Red Sox (87-75) vs. Yankees (93-68)
✅ Cubs (89-73) against Padres (91-71)

The White Sox (84-78)-Astros (81-81) The matchup did not qualify because both teams finished below 90 wins.

>> See All of Steve’s MLB Playoff Systems

I asked Adam if he had any strategies for handicapping the playoffs. He gave me three things to remember:

1. Use live betting to your advantage

Momentum swings can be extreme. Find out which side of the lineup is coming, which relievers are likely to come in and what the splits look like. Management decisions are magnified in the postseason, creating opportunities to improve at a position before the game.

2. The playoffs are all about the long ball

Adam pointed to research from ESPN’s David Schoenfield showing that the team that hit the fewest regular-season home runs no longer
17-29 in playoff series in last 10 postseasonsexcluding 2020.

And over the past five postseasons, at least 45.4% of all runs scored came via home runs. Bad pitchers don’t get to play in October. Beginners are not too stretched. Games often go wrong — and if someone hits one over the fence.

3. Monitor reliever use

Not just which relievers were available, but how much they pitched and how often opposing hitters saw them. That becomes increasingly important as a series goes on.

VSiN hockey analyst Jonathan Davis gives NHL schedule makers a A+ for opening night.

The defending Stanley Cup champion The Carolina Hurricanes host the Florida Panthers and the Tkachuk brothers at 5 pm ET on ESPN.

North of the border, Toronto hosts Montreal in an Original Six matchup. Edmonton took on Vancouver, Pavel Dorofeyev made his Rangers debut in Boston, and the Vegas Golden Knights hosted a Blackhawks team without Connor Bedard for at least the first month of the season.

JD will post his opening-night best bets later this morning.

>> VSiN NHL

📅 Steve’s Scheduling Places

Steve Makinen has mapped out the scheduling situation areas to watch throughout the NHL season.

>> Check out Steve’s NHL Scheduling Scenario

Baker Mayfield’s dislocated right thumb will sideline him for a at least three weeks.

Undrafted rookie Jalon Daniels will start for the 0-3 Bucs against Green Bay. The Packers moved from -1.5 on the lookahead to -3.5.

🔄 Giants get JJ McCarthy

The Giants got it JJ McCarthy from the Vikings to add quarterback depth behind Jameis Winston.

>> NFL Week 4 Betting Hub

The Bears’ Monday night win eliminated the 66 entries in Circa Survivor on board Philadelphia, leaving 6,292 of the original 25,017 entries are alive.

Twenty-six contestants posted perfect 7-0 cards in Week 3 of the EdgeBoost Average Joe Contest.

VSiN Pro subscribers Wayne Whitby led them all with +146.5 action points to finish the week first.

>> See How Wayne Did It

>> VSiN Contest Hub