MLB Best Bets Today October 1st
It’s crazy that the Phillies and Braves don’t know what time they will play today until the other series reaches resolution, if there will be a Game 3 or if they end up with sweeps. As it turns out, we’ll get the only night game of the series in a winner-take-all battle at Truist Park. As of this morning, neither team has announced a starting pitcher, but we do know who is involved for both teams. It depends on who starts the game and when the others enter.
Throughout the playoffs, I’ll be looking at every game on the schedule, even if I don’t have any bets. I’ll usually do this on the morning of the games, trying to get as much lead time as possible. Bullpen usage is very important in the postseason, so I’ll do myself a disservice to do anything before the games are over and that usually means writing down my thoughts in the morning.
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Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats.
Here are today’s MLB best bets for October 1:
Phillies (-118, 7.5) vs. Braves
8 pm ET (NBC/Peacock)
Who will play the lead actor and who will be the supporting actors is still up in the air, but the Phillies will likely use Zack Wheeler in some capacity today, which is why they are favored over the Braves in this elimination game. Aaron Nola could be a great feature in this game as well, and we know that Jhoan Duran, who was not used yesterday, will get a shot at redemption at some point. If not redemption, then at least go there and keep a deficit close.
On the Braves side, the expectation is that left-handers Ray Kerr and Brent Suter will work in an opener capacity and possibly match up with Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber somewhere in the middle innings. Grant Holmes is also available for multiple innings. Both teams may know what they are going to do and not just let others know. Both teams may also be waiting to see how the state of the game plays out.
Wheeler threw 97 pitches in Sunday’s clincher. My guess is we get an opener in front of Nola or a true start for Nola and Wheeler will be used for leverage if necessary. With Jesus Luzardo being so effective in Game 1, Don Mattingly and the decision makers have to be confident in rolling him out for Game 1 of the NLDS if they make it. Yesterday will be a “side day” for Wheeler to start Sunday, and we often see managers use starters on those days for an inning or two in the postseason when you have to pull out all the stops. Through two games, it’s abundantly clear that Mattingly doesn’t trust Jose Alvarado and isn’t sure about Jonathan Bowlan, who won’t be available for the final week of the season.
Nola had an unusual last week, as he started on short rest on September 26 and gave up three runs on four hits in just one inning of work against the Rays. That was on the heels of allowing four runs on four hits in six innings to the Brewers in the 23rd. What’s really scary about Nola in a playoff context is that he allowed 37 HR in the regular season with an 18.3% HR/FB%. As I have discussed at length and so have others, home runs are the currency of the postseason and Nola has historically served up many of them. At least, he rests normally here.
Holmes was actually a guy who had a reverse platoon split in Atlanta’s rotation, with lefties hitting just .222/.309/.374 with a .304 wOBA while righties hit .261/.321/.432 with a .329 wOBA. Holmes was also solid in the second half with a 3.22 ERA, but he had just 39 strikeouts in 266 batters in 64.1 innings of work. Leaning on a guy with an 82% LOB% with a 14.7% K% in the second half is a really scary proposition in the playoffs. That’s especially true because Holmes, who had good numbers for the season and only allowed a .234 BABIP to lefties, gave up a 46.5% Hard Hit% and a 9.3% Barrel% to them. Righties also hit a lot of balls hard. He had a 3.22 ERA in the second half, but a 5.77 xERA, so he was dicey at best.
Walt Weiss used Raisel Iglesias, Didier Fuentes, and Dylan Lee in both games of the series, so they would all work three straight days. Iglesias only threw 16 pitches in that span, so he’s fine. The others threw 33 and 31, respectively. I think we definitely see Robert Suarez at some point now. In fact, I’m not sure why Weiss didn’t deploy the guy with a 1.06 ERA with a 2.48 FIP in 34 innings this season and a career 2.66 ERA in 244 innings.
After dealing two lefties to open the series in Luzardo and Sanchez, the Braves got a collection of righties today. Atlanta posted a .242/.293/.395 slash with a .302 wOBA and an 89 wRC+ against southpaws in the second half of the season. In September, specifically, the Braves slashed .216/.263/.322 with a .260 wOBA and a 61 wRC+ against lefties. That’s the lowest wOBA in the league by eight points and the lowest wRC+ by nine points.
Conversely, the Braves slashed .243/.306/.422 with a .317 wOBA and a 99 wRC+ with a league-average-ish performance against righties in September. That was a similar slash line to their second-half performance in that split. In that regard, it might be a better setup for them offensively. But, I am very concerned about how things are set up on the pitching front.
I don’t have a pregame position here on the side or total. At the time of writing, DraftKings does not offer a 1st 5 moneyline. Nola’s penchant for giving up home runs may have me leaning toward the Braves 1st 5, but without the price, it’s hard to say. Even with a 3.33 ERA in 78.1 innings in the second half, Nola allowed 17 HR in that span.
Buried in the middle of all the betting options for this game is “ATL Braves to Record a Home Run Within 1st 3 Innings” and the Yes is +280. It’s under Team and then under Total Hits props. Nola gave up 26 HR in 33 games across Innings 1-3. I’d say this one is worth half a unit shot for those with DraftKings. I’ve included screenshots of where to find them. As an alternative way to have something here, Fanduel (under the Innings category) has a 3-way First 3 Innings Result and the Braves are +180. 3-way means that a tie is its own option.
For those with these available: (DraftKings) Braves to Record a HR Within 1st 3 Innings – Yes (+280); (Fanduel) Braves +180 3-way First 3 Innings Result