The Miami Dolphins dropped yet another heartbreaker this week to the Cincinnati Bengals. The good news? They are guaranteed not to lose in week 6. They enter their bye week with plenty of issues to clean up before the deep partof the season. Here are my takeaways from the game.
I’M NOT. I’M JUST NOT.
The biggest, most glaring issue in this game was quarterback Malik Willis’s play. Everyone will discuss this ad nauseam this week and into next week. I refuse to do so. Not because I am scared to discuss it or because I refuse to recant my position on him; I was a vocal advocate for the Dolphins signing him, and I stand by that, which I’ll explain in a moment. I refuse to discuss it because, well… I plain just don’t want to. You’uns can have fun with that.
TON 618 is one of the largest black holes ever discovered, with a mass estimated to be about 66 billion times that of the Sun and a diameter of roughly 66,000 light-years. For reference, the diameter of the Milky Way galaxy is about 150,000 light-years. This thing is nearly half the size of our home galaxy. A colossal stellar object whose size we truly cannot fathom.
The QB talk black hole amongst Dolphins fans dwarfs TON 618. Like anything that passes the event horizon, it is on a collision course with the singularity and will never be seen again. I would like to avoid the intense spaghettification due to its gravitational pull and stay on this side of sanity. What I WILL talk about is the financial ramifications.
I had this discussion in a chat last week that I wanted to bring to light. GM Jon-Eric Sullivan said that he is going to add competition for the QB position every year by drafting one; if not every year, then every other year. So far, he has done most of what he said he would do. In the 2026 draft, however, that didn’t really materialize. Only 2 QBs were selected in round 1, and one was gone long before Miami got on the clock. Their only option was Ty Simpson at 12. The next QB selected was Carson Beck at pick 65, the first pick of the 3rd round. Again, he was gone before Miami had a pick, unless they took him at 43. I think they are pretty happy with the pick they made there. They could have selected Drew Allar at 75 instead of Caleb Douglas. Allar looked good in preseason, but Douglas also looks like a good pick. That was all for the Day 1 or Day 2 picks. The next QB was drafted at 110 in round 4, and if we are being realistic, that’s not true competition.
There weren’t many options in the free-agent market, at least not anyone you’d want to consider. Sure, they could have gone with Tyrod Taylor or Kirk Cousins, but those are old vets with no future. They want someone with promise and potential. That’s why Malik Willis made sense. They knew him from his time in Green Bay, so they had some background information. The issue was the price tag. Pre-FA estimates were getting ridiculous, with figures over $40M per year. That was never going to happen, and Miami got Willis for a market-inflated deal very similar to what the Jets got for Justin Fields the season before.
This is the biggest sore spot for fans. They have stated that Miami has wasted money and have hurt their cap position. That is not true whatsoever – more on that in a moment. They have stated that Miami could have stayed with Quinn Ewers and saved that money. The forgotten part of that discussion is they saw Ewers all camp long. As bad as Willis has been, Ewers was WORSE. They had him there in the room, in meetings, on the field. And he was worse. Camp reports from trusted opinions said that Ewers was considerably worse. Now, maybe he’s a Matt Moore gamer that sucks in practice, but shows up for games. But they saw enough and said “no thanks”. Anyone that thinks Ewers would have been a BETTER option is fooling themselves. Cheaper… but not better.
Thus the crux of the argument: the money that could have been saved. First, let’s discuss CASH vs. CAP. In NFL contracts, there is a difference between what teams actually pay to players (CASH) and what they right down in their ledgers for accounting (CAP). Malik Willis signed a 3 year, $67,500,000 contract with $45,000,000 guaranteed. In terms of AAV (average annual value), he is getting $22,500,000 per year. But that is all half-truths and gorilla dust. You have to look at the CASH flow for his contract. The Dolphins gave a $22,285,000 signing bonus. That is $22.25M that Willis got in a check on the day he signed the contract. That’s CASH the Dolphins paid out of payroll. For CAP purposes, they have prorated this over a 5-year period which includes 2 void years on the deal, which are just dummy placeholder years for cap purposes. That means Willis has an automatic cap hit of $4,457,000 for the next five seasons. In 2026, he has a guaranteed salary of $1,215,000. This is CASH the Dolphins pay out in weekly game checks (he also has a $10,200 workout bonus). That means for the CAP, the Dolphins are “paying” Willis $5,682,200 in 2026. Willis will get SIGNIFICANTLY more than that in actual dollars, but the number they have to keep on the books is much lower. That’s a big need in a season where they don’t have the cap room to maneuver. In 2027, the Dolphins guaranteed Willis the salary portion of his contract, which is $21,500,000. That again will be game checks he receives and actual CASH he receives. For the CAP, the Dolphins will be forced to report $25,957,000 for their books. That’s a significant hit overall.
But the thing is, the Dolphins are set to have the 3rd highest amount of cap space at $110,315,175. With CAP inflation, that amount will likely be higher. This includes dead money for Tua and Bradley Chubb, a void year hit for Austin Jackson, who will not return, AND Willis’ CAP hit. The Dolphins will be flush with both CAP and CASH in 2027. Now, could they have saved $25+M in 2027 and likely just over $13M in dead cap for 2028 if they hadn’t signed Willis in the first place? Sure. But they will not need anywhere close to that amount of those things WITH Willis in the mix, let alone without him. Sully said he’s not going to be a big player in FA. Why should we doubt him at this point?
This was a long-winded way of saying that Sully did the CORRECT thing by swinging the bat on Willis. I don’t think it’s time to give up on him yet, although a few more performances like Sunday and they may start. That window for hope is closing exceedingly fast. Regardless, the FO made the proper move by signing a QB they were familiar with, that was both reasonably cost effective AND still young enough to be a piece for the future, and still didn’t get so attached they won’t look at other options.
Back in the day, ct and I discussed the move to acquire Rosen. We both agreed (shocking) that trading for him was the right move. He was a young QB with upside that maybe needed a change of scenery. Ct’s biggest contention was signing Fitzpatrick because if the goal was to tank, then Rosen was the best option. Fitz would win too many games and looking back, he was right. The Willis situation is almost exactly the same, just more costly in terms of CASH and CAP. At least he didn’t cost a draft pick like Rosen did, which in my opinion, is more valuable than the contract stuff. Willis is on pace right now to give the Dolphins the 1st overall pick. His upside was worth the chance, even if it is failing. Ewers lacks that upside, so I’m fine with the cost of the transaction. Who knows… maybe McCord is the guy we’ve all hoped for all these years and at this rate, he could get a chance sooner rather than later.
THE DEFENSE WAS BETTER THAN I EXPECTED
When I saw that Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins were playing, I expected the absolute worst. Miami’s secondary has faced some decent WRs, but not a duo like that. To my surprise, they were relatively quiet. Chase had the remarkable TD grab that was a “tip your cap” kind of play where Jason Marshall Jr. had tight coverage, but Chase is just that level of a playmaker. That play went for 45 yards, but up until then, he was held to 5 catches for 32 yards. Higgins went 2-22. That’s a very quiet day for what was expected to be an issue. Burrow still found TEs and RBs for significant plays and like in prior games, it felt as though he could complete any pass he wanted at any time. He finished with 4 TDs, but an underwhelming 190 yards and a 5.9 YPA. Take what you can get I suppose.
The run game looks decent on paper until you realize that they still allowed 117 yards on 31 carries. They bottled up Chase Brown for the most part, limiting him to 3 YPC, but allowed Samaje Perine to go 14-68 for nearly 5 YPC. The Dolphins did not force a 3-and-out all game. The Bengals only had 2 drives that went for 3 or fewer plays: the opening 3 play TD drive and the 2 kneeldowns at the end of the game.
But overall, the defense did well considering the offense was not much help and they were facing an opponent with enough weapons to be very dangerous. The Bengals were content to run and control the clock, though they only had about a 3-minute advantage. The Dolphins were shut out in the sack department yet again, though they did force a turnover. They will have some tough opponents in coming weeks, but the defense has opportunities to start stiffening up.
- Watching that Chase TD is exactly why I’m an advocate for drafting Jeremiah Smith. Marshall had extremely tight coverage, but the playmaker was just too good. Miami could use more playmakers like that. Perhaps Douglas can be that guy, but even if he is, a player like Smith can elevate any QB he has. He is truly a generational prospect. I would draft him and not think twice about it.
- Speaking of QBs, the draft class that was supposed to be deep and incredible is looking… not like that. Arch Manning probably needs to stay in school another year. He has talent, but something is missing. The big names right now are Darian Mensah, Austin Simmons, and Drew Mestamaker. None look like “surefire” guys. We’ll see how it starts to shake out come draft season, but right now, the “tanking” idea looks about as bad as it always did. There is no surefire, guaranteed QB prospect that will make everyone feel great. The best bet now is adding Smith and hoping for the best with whomever is left or in 2027. I would absolutely hate to pass on a generational prospect for a questionable QB prospect.
- Ollie Gordon II is the better runner right now and it’s not close. I’m not sure what is going on with Wright, but if I was the GM, I would have him on the trade block. The addition of Kaytron Allen, a 5’11”, nearly 220 lbs RB tells me that Sully and Hafley want to stick to the bigger RBs like Green Bay uses. Achane is an obvious exception because he is a proven talent. But they now have 2 RBs that are downhill types. I wouldn’t expect Allen to be a waiver wire gem and long term solution, but he fits a type. When you consider they added Proctor and have Savaiinaea, who are more power type OGs than zone OGs, then maybe there is a shift in run game philosophy happening.
- Special teams are truly special indeed. I know a lot of people are getting on Chris Tabor about it and he’s likely to be the scapegoat in all of this. He needs to get this fixed. He’s working with limited players also and some players that are playing offense and defense should be ST players only. But that’s not likely to change until 2027. At this point, I would kick touchbacks every time on KOs and have Pinion punt out of bounds every chance he could. The tackling is… well… special.
- Speaking of Pinion, he was shaky early on this season, but he absolutely smashed the ball Sunday. He punted twice, with a 57 yarder and a 59 yarder. The second punt came after a 3-and-out to start the 2nd half and the LOS was Miami’s 29-yard line. Cincy got the ball on their own 17 after a 5-yard return. That’s the kind of field-flipping power we need, given the offensive state of affairs.
- Malik Washington… I apologize. I was a fan during the draft process and early into your career. I wrote you off after 2 lackluster seasons under McDaniel. I wrote you off as a JAG and lamented the fact you were WR1 coming into this season. But I am sorry I doubted you. Aside from the first play where you may have been open, but perhaps lost the ball in the sun, you were open quite often in this game. You should have had a couple of TDs, but the other Malik was playing poorly. Of course, we will need to keep seeing it, but you played a game that will go underappreciated in the score book.
- Hey Slowik… I’m glad to see you discovered Greg Dulcich. 5 targets is a nice range. We need more of that. However, can you stop throwing go-balls to Durin’s folk? There were two of those throws on Sunday, one to Washington and one to Coleman. That may have worked with Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. For this group, let’s save those for Douglas and Bell.
- Also… can we see more Malik Washington in the backfield as a running back? He is a tough guy to tackle and he is shifty. Maybe they will after they trade Wright.
- Chris Bell has the potential, but he and Willis are off. On the scramble drill, despite what Stink said, he was not open. Willis overthrew him, likely hoping he would drift up field. Willis and Douglas were able to work out this summer, and you can see the connection. Bell was unable to be a part of that and it’s showing. Perhaps Slowik can draw up some manufactured touches like the reverse play. That highlighted what makes Bell special: his size, speed, and run-after-catch ability.
- Also with Bell, and I’ve stated this a few times, I want to see him work in the slot. He’s an outside WR but using him in the slot will open opportunities underneath for him to be a problem for defenders.
I know my take of the Willis situation and contract will not be popular. But I stand firm in the belief that it was a chance worth taking. It doesn’t look like it will pay off, but like I tell my basketball players, you miss every shot you don’t take. If the goal was just to lose games, then they should have stuck with Ewers. Or Gronowski or Miller. But with Willis, there was potential to be more. I don’t think they’ll change things up after the bye. But if there is no noticeable improvement, then we may see Kyle McCord. I don’t think it will matter in any case. Right now, I don’t see a win on the schedule for a while, if any, so Miami may end up with the 1st overall pick and their QB of choice if so inclined.