No, I’m sorry. I cannot give you the winning numbers for the upcoming lottery. Oh, you didn’t ask? My mistake. I thought you would, considering we predicted the future in this very column last week, and I assumed you thought I was some kind of witch. Alas, I’m just a dude who knows too much about football, despite what my 0-5 fantasy football team might think.
We have our finger on the pulse of some of Week 5’s biggest developments, and some even come before the action officially begins. In what felt like hours after the story was posted last week, news broke that Sean Payton would be taking over the offensive play-calling duties from David Webb. That was an angle we put in the crosshairs and predicted would come to fruition.
We also had Justin Herbert sacked a season-high five times, Nick Sirianni’s bench reached a fever pitch after the loss in London, and the San Francisco 49ers firmly established themselves as the new Super Bowl favorites. The only call we didn’t get was Jacoby Brissett who threw for 350 yards. That said, he finished with a season-high 292 yards through the air, so the logic is good.
So, what is left to do? Pat myself on the back? I’ve done that since the lede is already too long. No, the only thing left to do now is roll up our sleeves, comb through the Week 6 slate, and identify some underrated storylines/performances that wouldn’t surprise us if they happened.
MarShawn Lloyd rushed for 100 yards
The Packers’ rushing attack has been nonexistent so far this season. As a team, they are last in the NFL in rushing yards per game (60.4) and 31st in yards per carry (3.1). When it came to Lloyd, Green Bay was hoping he would be a key contributor after Josh Jacobs went on the commissioner’s exempt list, but he didn’t exactly answer the bell. Of the 36 running backs who have recorded at least 40 rushing attempts so far, Lloyd is 36th in rushing yards and 35th in yards per carry. He was also last among backs per carry after contact.
Still, we wouldn’t be surprised if he left Week 6 to the tune of 100 yards on the ground. Why? Simple. He plays for the Dallas Cowboys.
Dallas has one of the worst defenses in the NFL coming into Week 6, and they’ve struggled to stop the run. So far this season, the Cowboys are last in the NFL, allowing teams to pile up 168.4 rushing yards per game. Just last week, they let Bucs running back Bucky Irving run wild for 165 yards.
Gambling angle to keep in mind: MarShawn Llyod’s Over/Under rushing yards prop is at 40.5 (-112) to the Over. Lloyd is +250 to reach 60 rushing yards, +610 to reach 80 rushing yards, and +1300 to rush for at least 100 yards (via DraftKings Sportsbook).
Trevor Lawrence fought at Wembley Stadium
All in all, Trevor Lawrence has played well this season. He has the Jags at 4-1 entering Week 6 with a healthy lead in the AFC South and fourth in the NFL in passer rating. However, he could be in some trouble this week as Jacksonville wraps up its two-week stint in London with a game against the Texans.
Houston has had a miserable start to 2026, starting the year 0-4 before finally winning last week against the Tennessee Titans. While no one will mistake that as a huge accomplishment, I think it might be a right spot for DeMeco Ryans team, especially on defense. They held the Titans to one field goal and sacked Cam Ward four times in the contest. Will that be enough to wake up what is undoubtedly a very good defensive line? If so, that’s not good news for Lawrence.
In his career, Lawrence is 3-7 against the Texans and has thrown eight touchdowns compared to 11 interceptions. Houston is eighth in the NFL in pressure so far this season, so Lawrence may be somewhat under siege in this game. When pressured this season, Lawrence ranks 18th out of 26 qualified quarterbacks in completion percentage (41.7%). To his credit, he does have a passer rating when pressured to sizzle the 10th highest among those quarterbacks, but it’s only 66.1. Lawrence may also be lucky not to have a lower number, as his turnover-worthy throw rate under pressure is tied for third-highest.
If Houston can get pressure, Lawrence will have a second chance to create turnovers.
Gambling angle to keep in mind: Texans ML is +120 (via DraftKings Sportsbook).
The Giants’ lead in the NFC East has grown to 2.5 games
As crazy as it is considering Jaxson Dart’s season-ending knee injury in Week 2, the New York Giants still lead the NFC East entering Week 6. Additionally, they hold a 1.5-game lead over the rest of the division, which is the largest division lead they’ve held since 2012. Don’t be surprised if the 5. dust time jumps to 6. Week.
New York is currently sitting as the home underdog to the Saints this Sunday, but the margin is slim, with the line at 1.5 and the Giants moneyline currently priced at -102. New Orleans has stumbled in this matchup, losing three straight to drop to 1-4 on the season, and Tyler Shough is starting to come back down to earth.
After totaling 917 passing yards, nine touchdowns and three interceptions through the first three weeks, Shough has thrown for just 382 yards, one touchdown and two picks over the past two games. When you factor in the recent slump to the fact that New Orleans could be looking ahead to its schedule in their Week 7 trip to Paris, France, against the Steelers, the Giants should be viewed as a live home dog.
Meanwhile, the Cowboys and Eagles (tied for second behind the Giants at 2-3) both have tough matchups in Week 6. Dallas heads to Lambeau Field as an underdog against the Packers, while the Eagles return from London and host a Panthers team that just finished. Despite that game being played in Philly, Carolina is the road favorite.
So, by the end of the weekend, we could see both the Cowboys and Eagles drop to 2-4, and if New York can take care of business against New Orleans, they’d rather be 4-1-1 and have a growing division lead.
Gambling angle to keep in mind: A Giants, Packers, and Panthers moneyline parlay is +573 (via DraftKings Sportsbook).
The Titans get their first win in 2026
I’ve written this in a few different places, but it wouldn’t surprise me if Tennessee finally gets into the win column this weekend. While I don’t have them out of my official list of picks, I do have them covered as one of my five locks of the week.
Actually, it was more than just a game against their rival, the Indianapolis Colts. The Colts’ defense is 28th in the NFL in total yards allowed (384.2), so there’s a chance here for this lackluster unit to shore up what was a bad Tennessee offense. Meanwhile, Indy’s offense doesn’t inspire much confidence. The defense ranks 29th in yards per play allowed (4.6), while Daniel Jones has registered more turnovers (7) than touchdowns (4) so far this year.
This is the kind of recipe that cooks up upsets. The Colts can play up to Tennessee’s level, and if Jones’ turnover issues continue to plague him and the defense can’t stop a nosebleed, it will be a pretty easy lift for Cam Ward to put points on the board.
Gambling angle to keep in mind: Titans ML is +260 (via DraftKings Sportsbook).
The Steelers scored less than 20 points in the loss to the Bucs
Pittsburgh’s home/road splits have been pretty brutal this season. In the friendly confines of Acrisure Stadium, the Steelers are 3-0 and are averaging 28 points per game. On the road, they are 0-2 and are averaging 13.5 points per game. While the Steelers haven’t started a season 0-3 on the road since 2012, it’s certainly within the realm of possibilities in 2026.
Not only will they lack home-field advantage in this game, but Pittsburgh will also have a rest disadvantage against the Bucs, who played on Thursday. Beyond that, Tampa Bay matches up well against several key parts of Pittsburgh’s offense. In particular, they’ve done well against the run game, allowing the second-fewest rushing yards per game (72.8) and yards per rush (3.3) in the NFL entering Week 6. If they can keep up that pace, it could do wonders for cooling Jaylen Warren.
Meanwhile, Todd Bowles has done well against Aaron Rodgers in the past, owning a 2-1 record against the quarterback and holding his teams to just 16.7 points per game. Those factors have put Pittsburgh on high alert, and it could be a relatively quiet day for the offense.
Gambling angle to keep in mind: The Steelers’ team total is 20.5 points for Week 6, with the Under sitting at -120. Under 19.5 team total is +115. Buccaneers ML and Steelers Under 19.5 team parlay total points are +176 (via DraftKings Sportsbook).