Daily Racing Form expert handicapper and analyst Marcus Hersh handicaps the Friday, October 23rd racing card at Keeneland, with his expected 1-2-3 finishers. His best bet of the day was from Race 10.
Also, check out the FREE DRF Past Performances for today’s Race of the Day.
BEST BET: Flash of Freedom (10th Race)
Tenth Race
1. Lightning of Freedom
2. Session
3. These wallshaveears
FLASH OF FREEDOM has run on three sloppy tracks, including in his last two starts – it’s fair to say he doesn’t like them. At Keeneland, racing on a fast track, he finished a solid second behind a vagabond that turned out pretty well. Encouraging enough video work. SESASI is 40-1 on debut for trainer T Pletcher – strange. Steady inside running which isn’t bad at all, although it may come in a soft race. Like his stretchout candidacy – even though he doesn’t seem to want to work inside the talented 3yo Sassmaster in his KEE drill. Still waiting for THESEWALLSHAVEEARS to show the talent I think he has – could it come in two turns? Sprint comeback better than it looks on paper.
Here are Marcus’ thoughts on the other nine races on Friday’s Keeneland card.
First Race
1. Hat
2. Work of the Boss
3. Telecaster
SHAPKA debuted two back facing away, stronger competition than this. Clearly overmatched and eased home by the last furlong. From that dirt sprint to the IND turf route -better, but not exactly screaming turf horse. Now, third, probably more suited to the race than the debut, he gets the class relief he needs. The race is open if you don’t buy a big Baffert dropper (you don’t). BOSS’S WORK looks like an in-and-out horse – and he was out last time. As much as he can, he fights. TELECASTER’s only chance is to accelerate the exit from the outside draw and establish a clear lead. May work to some extent.
Second Race
1. Our Liberty Belle
2. Sweet Notes
3. Last Shipman
OUR LIBERTY BELLE is back from a long layoff and back at the Sharp barn, where she campaigned last year. Showed up in fall ’25 at KEE on a route and couldn’t get up in time, and lone recent win came at 1 1/8 miles. Somewhat counterintuitively, I might prefer the mare on this sprint trip – as long as she gets at least a little bit of speed. It’s a $20K starter, a 6yo, so what does one expect to see – but quite liked the look of his recent work video. SWEET NOTE and FINAL SHIPMAN are the two pace players – Final Shipman who seems to be a need-the-lead type. Sweet Note stalks/presses and passes Final Shipman before Our Liberty Belle runs him over – or so I see the race.
Third Race
1. Maddy Mania
2. Cabin Eight
3. Smart
MADDY MANIA one of three, along with KABIN EIGHT and Newhope, to appear on the same CD sprint. MM was caught wide, driven inside for the homestretch, made progress but didn’t want to go through a gap that opened up in the far yard. He finally did and, once in the clear, delivered a rather reassuring little burst. The wide draw on this one-mile, two-turn race (don’t like this configuration) makes things difficult. Kabin Eight would have a worse post if he were to compete. Got back some of the first stages of the debut, rode in traffic, finally got out for the stretch run, was a little green and didn’t run straight – but here came Maddie flying through everyone running out. The added distance and benefit of a race drives him forward. CLEVER ONE is the clear favorite – I just doubt that even if he wins, he’ll be as high as the odds suggest.
Fourth Race
1. Break Out
2. Do Big
3. Ghazaly
BREAK OUT since switching from turf to dirt four races ago has run nothing but winnable races on this $62.5K claimer. Long one-turn contests – that seems to be his bread and butter, and that’s what this race is. For a perfect trip from out of post. BIG WORK is largely a prediction – the prediction that there is some kind of dirt horse hidden inside a struggling turf horse. Ran a few dirt races early in his career – decent. “High class” enough, and the big thing is that I don’t mind the shorter price. GHAZAALY example 8-5 in line. Good, good, sure – all looks are SoCal and he’s the first out for a new trainer who, while a two-time winner at this meet, has not fared well this fall. The Barn also has a second runner at a low price in TARANTINO, who won last time because Billal decided not to win at the last moment.
Fifth Race
1. Combined
2. Ghostwritten
3. Vitruvian Man
CONSOLIDATED has beaten lesser opponents in the KEE this spring but could be up to this tougher task. Came right back from the KEE mark to win on the rise, then didn’t seem to get too far over the sloppy track before taking a break. Too far back (probably for no good reason) and too wide past the 3f marker, spinning wheels in the upper stretch, showing little spark on the furlong grounds. He is meant to improve on that – the price is right to find out if he is good enough and can adapt in the short stretch. GHOSTWRITTEN could prove to be a good $50K claim two back, and while he ran well for new connections at 7f, I prefer him to lead this two-turn test. VITRUVIAN MAN may be favored and on the surface looks good in this area, but note that he has already lost at this class level and to a SoCal N1X.
Sixth Race
1. Tarkanian
2. Justice
3. Time Out on TV
Nothing surprised me or even close to the video department of the job. As always, the W Ward-trained first-timer is hard to read. TARKANIAN at least looks like he’s very fast – too fast for his own good in a drill, trying to blow the turn while holding tight. It is suspected that he is good out of the gate and could lead from the rail – although there is some concern that he could last to the wire. A video of the work for JUSTICO shows him going through the homestretch on the wrong lead – that’s not the end of the world in general, and the gate works at KEE starting in an awkward spot at the end of the far end, which can lead to lead change issues. The work pattern is a bit dicey – maybe not ready yet? TV TIME OUT back on a short break after a fairly competitive showing in the early part of the meet – I guess if he just runs that race he’ll be in here.
Seventh Race
1. Fuzz Buster
2. Quick Pick
3. Brave Pilot
FUZZBUSTER even with a poor outside pole is the most likely winner of a mundane N1X turf-route allowance – but he needs to get into the race from the AE list first. The two didn’t have a good trip back to the CNL, and while it was very competitive for the big money last time out in the KD stakes, it wasn’t just a case of a horse over the KD course outdoing his standard-oval form. QUICK PICK got a perfect pocket trip to beat the maidens and now moves up to the N1X allowance – should have been skeptical under the circumstances, but I really liked the way he finished. BRAVE PILOT a very impressive second-out dirt maiden winner. Mixed signals are best on the turf front.
Eighth Race
1. Miss Anna
2. Understand each other
3. Kirk’s angel
MISS ANNA won well over 7f two back at Ellis one sees her handling this very close stakes crew in a 6f trip which should suit her too. Not much stayed in a turn mile while running smoothly on Pocahontas. ELEWENE is above average for a restricted maiden winning two back – which she proved N1X went to CD. Well drawn outside to get the travel he needs. ANGEL OF KIRK clearly faces two better opponents than these in Spinaway – but, at the price, I wonder how much there is.
Ninth Race
1. Sister Troienne
2. Define
3. Important Lady
SISTER TROIENNE should have won Winter Memories. If nothing else, the crushing defeat saw him return to form after a much-needed break. Won the KEE course and with any luck should beat the odds here. DEFINE was a solid maiden winner but not the type one might think would really compete in the G1 Del Mar Oaks – which she didn’t. Commonplace allowance group he defeated last time, but this is a reasonable step for a polished improvement. ESSENTIAL LADY could easily improve on the last comeback win at the N1X level, though I prefer Define’s performance.
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