Fantasy Trade Targets Week 9: Bears Might Drive Playoff Bus

Listen, I’m like you. I’d love to address any weakness on my fantasy roster by selling off an overvalued guy for a sneaky player about to break out. But we just can’t always do that.

Sometimes that guy scoring beyond expectation just keeps doing so, and trading him away would actually damage your team.

And sometimes that guy who’s scoring strikingly below his usage is likely to keep doing so because his offense or QB simply stinks.

This week’s options don’t fit into the obvious “buy low/sell high” buckets. The suggested moves are simply designed to enhance your roster for the second half of the season, which will include the fantasy playoffs in most leagues.

As you’re considering moves involving these players — or any others — make sure you consult our strength-of-schedule pages. They cover any position (including IDPs), and you can customize the window to check whatever span matters for your specific pursuit.

Now let’s get to the names.

Week 9 Buys

Week 9 Sells

Buy These Fantasy Trade Targets

Before we dig into the Bears, let’s look at the guy who missed out on the Titans’ shocking points party.

Carnell Tate, WR, Tennessee Titans

Cam Ward just hit 300 passing yards for the first time in his career. His Titans scored 36 points, their most since Ward entered the league last year and just the second time they reached 30 in a game. The team’s 440 total yards also marked a peak since Ward arrived.

And all of that came despite their first-round WR being out with a shoulder injury.

Is that a knock on Tate? Good news for his outlook? Neither? Let’s dig in.

Titans Offer Optimism But Have More to Prove

I’m gonna need more than one game to start believing Ward can support regularly useful fantasy value for Tate. Fortunately, there is a bit more than that.

From Week 1 through Week 4, Ward ranked last in accuracy rate among 33 QBs with at least 50 dropbacks. He also checked in just 25th among that group in passing success rate.

From Week 5 through Week 8, however, Ward jumped to eighth in accuracy rate, improving that number dramatically from 47.1% to 63.6%. His success rate climbed only slightly — 43.7% to 45.0%, 24th over the latter span — but that stat’s shared a bit more with teammates and coaches.

Overall, the Tennessee offense has posted just three games of positive expected-points totals. Two of those came the past two weeks. Matchups with Cleveland and Cincinnati in those games might seem like positives, but the Browns and Bengals sit a decent 14th and 15th in EPA per play, respectively; and they’re even stronger by DVOA (12th and 10th).

Neither has been a pushover defense on the season.

Don’t Forget Tate’s Pre-Injury Impact

The rookie wideout’s sitting 12th at the position in target share for the season and 13th in targets per dropback. Those stats work together to show how central Tate has already become to the passing plan.

In spite of a mere No. 94 ranking in red-zone target share (among 123 WRs with 10+ targets overall), Tate ranks a sturdy 25th among WRs in expected PPR points per game. That’s narrowly behind Parker Washington and ahead of players such as Mike Evans, Jalen Coker, Jameson Williams, and Justin Jefferson.

Tate sits just 35th among WRs in actual PPR points per game, but his 1.3 PPG under expectation shows there’s room to climb — especially if Ward’s actually improving at all. And Tate’s usage started slowly, with 11 total targets, 7 catches, and 65 yards over the first two games.

Since Week 3, he’s up to WR18 in expected PPR points per game, with four guys ahead of him who have played fewer games in that span (including three who have played just two games).

The Timing Looks Ideal

If you need WR help this week, then Tate’s not your guy. Tennessee gets a Week 9 bye. But there’s only one other team (Pittsburgh) sitting out, so you should be able to fill our your lineup. Fantasy managers will have more trouble doing so with four bye teams in Week 10 and six of them in Week 11.

That Tate manager in your league might be tougher to deal with if you wait for those weeks to be more in sight.

The bigger reason to jump now is that Tennessee gets the third-best WR schedule the rest of the way.

The only truly negative matchup by the numbers comes in Week 15 against the Colts, which is a fake negative. Indy ranks 21st in pass-defense DVOA and EPA per pass play. Tate already hit up the Colts for a 6-70-1 receiving line in a Week 7 game that only saw Ward complete 11 passes for 102 yards.

We’ll certainly watch on the other side of the bye to make sure Tate’s shoulder is OK, but there’s been no indication of longer-term concern. And that situation should only make his manager more willing to sell. (That team already had to go without Tate last week.)

Here’s Who to Offer

These are sample players. Head to your Trade Navigator for personalized trade building.

Any Available Chicago Bears

Could I be any more vague with this one? Probably not. But it’s pretty rare that I go this broad, and there are reasons for this rare approach.

Upside Schedule Meets Dynamic Offense

This all starts with Chicago’s friendly second-half schedule.

Jared highlighted earlier this week the schedules making the biggest jumps — or tumbles — in impact over the second half of the fantasy season.

Comparing the Week 1-8 span to Week 9-17, the Bears get:

• the biggest boost at QB
• the ninth-best shift at RB
• the No. 2 boost at WR
• and the third-largest improvement at TE

So the starting message here: Get some Bears if you can. Now let’s get more specific.

Caleb Williams Looks Like a Top-5 QB the Rest of the Way

If you watched Monday night’s game, then you saw a third-year QB doing his thing against maybe the league’s best pass defense. If you didn’t watch the game, then Caleb Williams’ mere QB17 fantasy performance for Week 8 probably doesn’t stand out in any way.

Williams’ 70.6% completion rate at Seattle marked the highest for any enemy QB against the Seahawks this season. His 101.0 passer rating marked just the third guy among eight opponents to exceed 71.1 in that category.

Overall, Williams has leaped from a 58.1% completion rate last year to 70.9% so far this season. His yards per pass attempt are up from 6.9 to 8.0, with the adjusted YPA up from 7.3 to 8.5. That adds TDs and INTs to the calculation, and the jump comes despite Williams’ 3.8% TD rate dropping by 1 percentage point vs. last year so far.

Should you worry about that stat? Nah. The Bears sit eighth in scoring and third in total yards, despite missing Williams for three games. They’ve scored 30+ in three straight since he returned.

But Williams ranks just 14th in fantasy points per game over that stretch, despite leading the league in passing yards over the past three weeks. And now he gets the 11th-best remaining schedule for QB scoring. That jumps to second-best after this week’s home date with Tampa Bay.

If you get him, you’ll need to cover Chicago’s Week 10 bye. But that factor should only make him easier to acquire this week or next.

Here’s Who to Offer

These are sample players. Head to your Trade Navigator for personalized trade building.

Lead Receiver Will Be Tough to Get But Worth a Shot

Luther Burden’s Week 8 looked good whether you watched the game or simply looked at the stats afterward. His 7-56-1 receiving line delivered the position’s eighth-best PPR score for Week 8.

That followed two other top-14 finishes since Williams returned from his hamstring injury and lands Burden 17th among WRs in PPR points per game for the season to date. He has fallen short of double digits just twice in eight games, and two of his three weakest outings came in the season’s first two weeks.

So what are the chances his current manager’s willing to sell? I’d say they’re weak. But that doesn’t make such a move impossible. You’ll need to come with a strong offer, but the payoff could be season-defining.

Burden gets the fourth-best WR schedule the rest of the way, and that jumps to No. 1 after this week’s Tampa Bay matchup.

Who to Offer?

Honestly, I don’t think this’ll be helpful in the case of Burden. What to offer depends strongly on what you have and can afford to give, as well as what might entice the Burden manager in your league.

Here’s a Much Cheaper Way to Buy in

Rome Odunze hasn’t done anything special so far. He sits just 50th among WRs in target share, 44th in expected PPR points per game, and 52nd in actual points per game.

So why even include him here? Kinda for that reason.

Buying Odunze shouldn’t cost much at all. You could even try adding him as a throw-in to a larger deal. And you’d be pursuing a guy to play in your flex spot, with a chance to climb into a WR3 role.

Odunze’s clearly no lock for increased target share, but he gets the same high-end schedule the rest of the way and does rank second among Bears WRs in target share.

He’ll at least have some good weeks over the second half. Odunze’s catchable target rate is up from 67.0% last year to 76.7% this season.

Here’s Who to Offer

These are sample players. Head to your Trade Navigator for personalized trade building.

What About Bears RBs?

The schedule improvement isn’t as large for D’Andre Swift and Kyle Monangai, but it’s there. Chicago’s RB schedule ranked 19th through Week 8. It ranks 11th from Week 9 on, and that jumps to third after this week’s Bucs matchup.

Swift might be the least buyable Bear after exploding for 3 TDs in Monday night’s win at Seattle. It was his second 3-TD outing of the season and gives him 7 rushing scores over the past four games.

He now sits top-4 at the position in PPR scoring after four straight weeks of top-14 finishes.

Take a Run at the Other Guy

Kyle Monangai hasn’t played since Week 4 because of turf toe. Last time we saw him, though, he racked up a 30-146-2 rushing line against the Jets.

For the year, Monangai has led Swift in most rushing metrics.

Their three shared games to open the season found Swift leading 64% to 36% in carry share. Then Swift left Week 4 early, Monangai had the monster outing, and Monangai missed the ensuing four contests.

That latest four-game span found Swift averaging just 3.2 yards per rush while decreasing his rush yards over expected per attempt and yards after contact per carry.

Those factors should help Monangai regain some carry share once he’s ready.

The second-year back remains rostered in 76% of Sleeper leagues, so you’re not likely to find him on waivers. But consider trying to fold Monangai into a larger trade package, especially if you play in a non-PPR league.

He’ll still be more of a high-upside handcuff in half- and full-PPR.

Tight End Probably Not Even Worth Pursuing

We’ve included TE Colston Loveland as a buy on two separate occasions this year. If you didn’t get him yet, then you’re not likely to be able to now.

Loveland ranks third at the position in PPR points per game and total points over the past three weeks, trailing only Trey McBride in both targets and catches.

If the Loveland drafter in your league still holds him, that person’s probably reveling in finally getting what they anticipated on draft day.

How Do Last Week’s ‘Buys’ Look?

Let’s look back at our Trade Target recommendations from the past two weeks and see how we’d treat those players now …

Week 8 Report

• Nothing changed with my Bijan Robinson case, other than another relatively disappointing outing in a rain-soaked outlier of a game at Tampa.
• Trevor Lawrence delivered a QB8 finish last week despite attempting only 14 passes. That displayed both his biggest potential weakness — that Jacksonville will dramatically limit passing volume in lopsided wins — as well as his ability to overcome it.
• Patient Travis Etienne managers found him still not practicing Wednesday, despite his team coming off a Week 8 bye. That’s bound to test the patience further.

Week 7 Report

• I ain’t trading for A.J. Brown while he remains out with ankle and knee issues. Up to you if you want to take that shot.
• Emeka Egbuka, on the other hand, I’m willing to try to buy low while the foot keeps him out. But only low.

Sell These Players

This week’s trio presents interesting variation among their cases.

Josh Jacobs, RB, Green Bay Packers

If you sat on Josh Jacobs throughout his non-suspension suspension, he has rewarded your patience with RB9 and RB8 PPR finishes the past two weeks. But the risk factors make this a good time to move on.

Off-Field Issues Lead the Risk List

Jacobs spent the first six games on the commissioner’s exempt list because of the May altercation with his then-girlfriend that produced criminal charges. Police recently released records from that case that revealed “multiple” other women volunteering their own accounts of physical and verbal abuse delivered by Jacobs.

The league has said it will investigate that new info further. Jacobs’ attorneys call the claims “unsupported and stale allegations.” The Packers say they’re not changing anything (for now).

“We’re going to allow the NFL to do its process, but I would anticipate him being a member of us moving forward,” HC Matt LaFleur said earlier this week. “That’s really all I have to speak on.”

Perhaps no further discipline comes from these allegations. Or … maybe the NFL finds something that triggers another forced break for the Packers RB.

The sheer possibility of that adds obvious risk to his outlook. But that’s not the only reason to be wary.

Jacobs Not Scoring in Sustainable Ways

The starter’s return has not restored Green Bay’s rushing success. Even after two games of Jacobs, the Packers remain last in the league in expected points added per rush.

The O-line is the big problem. Green Bay continues to rank 32nd in adjusted line yards by a wide margin. The gap between No. 32 and the No. 31 Chargers is larger than the space between the Chargers and No. 22 Seattle.

Jacobs’ numbers are feeling that. His 1.3 yards before contact per carry are a career low, down from 2.0 in each of his first two Packers seasons. And he’s not making up for that after contact. Jacobs’ 1.0 yards after contact per carry also mark a career low, down from 2.4 and 2.0 the past two seasons.

That number ranks 57th among 58 RBs with at least 30 carries, ahead of only teammate MarShawn Lloyd.

Jacobs’ 2.3 yards per rush sit way below his 4.0 and 4.4 the past two years.

He has gotten fortunate on the receiving front, catching 11 of 13 targets and scoring via reception each of the past two weeks.

Jacobs should remain involved in the passing game, which Green Bay has had to lean on more this season. But his 5.5 receptions through two weeks mark a steep rise vs. last year’s 2.4 and the 2.1 of 2024. And his 2 receiving scores double his total since joining the Packers. Even Jacobs’ 6.2 yards per catch mark a career low.

In short, he’s not likely to continue delivering receiving production at anywhere near the same clip, and his team doesn’t look prepared to support enough rushing production to make up for it.

Here’s Who to Target

These are sample players. Head to your Trade Navigator for personalized trade building.

Michael Wilson, WR, Arizona Cardinals

I pitched Michael Wilson as a buy back in Week 5, which might make this call seem contradictory. But that’s only because it totally is.

The case for acquiring Wilson then relied heavily on the fact that has fantasy scoring hadn’t lived up to his high-level usage. That remains true. Wilson sits …

• 15th among WRs in target share
• fifth in expected PPR points per game
• and just 25th in actual points per game

At some point, we have to acknowledge that the player’s just poorly set up to realize his scoring potential. And this week gives us an opening to sell off that risky asset.

Was Wilson’s Week 8 a Correction … or a Mirage?

Wilson has scored 5.6 points under expectation in PPR so far this season. That’s 1.0 ahead of his nearest competitor in that category.

When a player’s running like that, a receiving line like his 8-111-1 against the Cowboys on Sunday looks like a correction, Wilson positively regressing toward where his scoring should be. But here’s the thing: His scoring has actually gotten worse since we called him a buy.

Wilson ranked 20th among WRs in PPR points per game at that point. Even with the big game at Dallas, he’s down to 25th. Sunday provided his first 100-yard game of the season and followed three straight outings of 4 receptions and 55 yards or less.

Maybe he’s in better shape now that Gardner Minshew has taken over.

Perhaps. But is Minshew really an upgrade on Jacoby Brissett? He’s definitely more fun, but he has also displayed his limitations across multiple starting turns.

Minshew spent most of 2019 and 2020 starting for Jacksonville, and then the Jags dumped him before the end of his rookie contract. He started 13 games for the 2023 Colts, and they let him walk at the end of the season. He started nine games for the 2024 Raiders, and then they released him.

And then Minshew spent the first eight weeks of this season sitting behind Jacoby Brissett, despite extra offseason reps as the team’s top QB while Brissett held out in search of a bigger contract.

Depth Chart and Schedule Hold Threats

So Minshew’s probably not a meaningful upgrade, but we’re now a step closer to that Carson Beck debut that America’s been pining for. But would that actually be a positive?

Sure, Beck looked good in that one preseason game. But he also spent six years in college, including three as the starter at Georgia (two) and Miami (one). And then he lasted to the third-round of a draft that saw only two QBs precede him. And then he spent eight weeks as the emergency third QB on a team with only Brissett and Minshew clogging traffic.

Is that 25-year-old rookie (come Nov. 19) likely to meaningfully upgrade the Arizona passing game if he starts at some point? Doesn’t seem like a strong bet.

Whoever starts at QB will need to help guide Wilson through the No. 20 schedule for WR scoring the rest of the way. That starts with a brutal Week 9 spot at Seattle and includes a Week 14 bye, poorly timed for battles over fantasy-playoff positioning.

And There’s One Other Risk Factor

You should also keep in mind that Wilson’s playing through two broken ribs at the moment. Wilson conceded after the Dallas game that he’s dealing with “a lot” of pain.

“This organization’s paying me a lot of money,” he added. “So if I can muster up the strength to go play, even at 60%, I’m going to.”

That injury didn’t stop him from delivering against Dallas. And Wilson opened Week 9 with a limited Wednesday practice. So it doesn’t appear likely to affect his availability against the Seahawks.

But it certainly adds some risk, to a guy whose offense and schedule are already working against him.

Here’s Who to Target

These are sample players. Head to your Trade Navigator for personalized trade building.

Blake Corum, RB, Los Angeles Rams

Jared pointed out in last week’s usage article that Corum’s opportunities have hinged on whether the Rams are playing from ahead or dealing with more competitive circumstances. That played out once again in Sunday’s comfy win over the Chargers.

Now L.A. gets favorable-looking spots against the Commanders and Cardinals, which would seem to make Corum a good play the next two weeks.

That helps the sell case.

This is a Dangerous Way to Live

Like you, I expect the Rams to beat their next two opponents. And they might do so handily, as they have the past two weeks.

But remember what happened when they faced the Cardinals at home in Week 6? L.A. lost 18-16 and managed just 286 total yards. That was a season low, until they put up a mere 281 this past week.

Corum still delivered fantasy points in that game, but his scoring leaned heavily on a 15-yard TD catch, his first career receiving score and one of just 10 total receptions this year.

My point: NFL games often proceed unpredictably. But what we can more easily predict is that when game script works against the Rams, Corum’s workload will likely suffer.

So rather than worry about what you might lose by giving him up, consider this an opportunity to sell a guy on a hot streak (four straight games with a TD) before he gets the chance to reveal his flimsy scoring profile.

Schedule Gets Worse After Week 10

Even if Corum delivers positive results over the next two weeks — and Washington and Arizona both arrive as negative scoring matchups for RBs — the Rams follow that with a Week 11 bye and then this run:

• vs. Green Bay
• vs. Kansas City
• at San Francisco
• vs. Dallas
• at Seattle
• at Tampa Bay

That doesn’t look like a string of matchups in which L.A. will commonly play from ahead, and we know that’s the game script Corum needs for meaningful usage.

And let’s circle back to the next two weeks of matchups:

• Washington has allowed just 3.6 yards per RB rush on the season, while four of the five rushing scores they’ve allowed have come from Jonathan Taylor and Christian McCaffrey.
• Arizona sits ninth in run-defense DVOA and 10th in EPA per rush faced.

So it’s possible the Rams could find positive game script the next two weeks and still not enjoy much rushing success.

Here’s Who to Target

These are sample players. Head to your Trade Navigator for personalized trade building.

How Do Last Week’s ‘Sells’ Look?

Let’s look back at our sell recommendations from the past two weeks and how we’d treat those players now …

Week 8 Report

• If you sold Tony Pollard last week, you might be feeling like I steered you wrong after his 21-117-2 rushing line at Cincinnati and second straight top-3 fantasy finish. We’ll see. Maybe I did. But I’ll go ahead and continue to bet he doesn’t keep producing anywhere near this level. Feel free to peruse Pollard’s career game log and decide for yourself, though.
• It’s not that Omar Cooper Jr.’s necessarily done producing now that Adonai Mitchell’s all the way back. But his shift from two straight big games to a literal zero in Week 8 — despite more playing time than the week before — highlights the extreme volatility at play in the Jets’ offense. I’d still sell, but that’ll likely be much tougher to do this week.
• Quinshon Judkins will similarly be much tougher to move off a bad Week 8 than following his big Week 7. You might need to wait and hope for another good outing against a weak Saints run D this Sunday.

Week 7 Report

• Nothing’s changed for me on the Chuba Hubbard front, other than moving a week closer to Jonathon Brooks returning to siphon some work. Just make sure you’re selling high, especially after Hubbard hung a stellar fantasy line on the Packers.
• I did not see a 25-carry game for Mike Washington Jr. coming. Ashton Jeanty’s horrid 2-carry total in that contest — plus a mere 3 catches — makes him a poor sell candidate this week. So you’re probably best off holding until he has another good fantasy outing. Then I’d sell.