Matt Youmans – NFL Week 4 Best Bets:
Revenge can be a big deal in college football rivalries, but is it a real handicap angle in the NFL? If Rams coach Sean McVay is serious about avenging a gut-punch loss in Philadelphia last season, that bodes well for those of us betting on the Rams this weekend.
It’s time to reflect on what was arguably the worst beat of last season. The Rams, who were 3.5-point underdogs, led the Eagles 26-7 early in the third quarter. The lead disappeared with two minutes left in the game when Jalen Hurts’ touchdown pass put Philadelphia on top 27-26. Matthew Stafford responded and drove the Rams into field-goal position with three seconds left, setting up Joshua Karty for a 44-yard game-winning run. Of course, Karty’s kick was blocked by Jordan Davis, a 330-pound defensive tackle. But that wasn’t the end of it — Davis fumbled the ball and, instead of collapsing to end the game, rumbled 61 yards for a touchdown and a 33-26 win and cover.
We all have long memories when it comes to bad beats. Hopefully, the Rams get some revenge as I count on McVay and Stafford as my best bets for Week 4.
Stafford and the Rams blew a 16-0 halftime lead Sunday night in Denver and took a controversial 30-26 loss. The game was another officiating fiasco, with the Rams flagged for 13 penalties to the Broncos’ five, and the refs’ biggest mistake (which the league later admitted) was a defensive pass interference penalty that nullified the interception that would have sealed the win for the Rams. Stafford also threw a pick-six that fueled Denver’s fourth-quarter comeback. So the Super Bowl favorites are 1-2 and need to get back on track, meaning this should be a place to back a focused favorite.
The Rams finished with a 482-257 advantage in total yards with Stafford passing for 390 yards and Kyren Williams rushing for 88 yards. The Los Angeles offense is in good shape and receiver Puka Nacua has returned from a two-game injury absence.
Philadelphia’s offense has had problems that were on display again Monday night in a 27-7 loss at Chicago. The Bears, behind 38-year-old quarterback Case Keenum, outgained the Eagles 375-248 and had nearly 37 minutes of possession. Jalen Hurts, who Keenum lost to, is back and leading receiver DeVonta Smith is now out with a hip injury.
I bet the Rams at -2.5 (-115) earlier in the week and the line move was no surprise. It’s hard to recommend placing the current price of -3.5, but the Rams remain the favored side and hopefully they’ll avoid blowing it in the fourth quarter.
Best Bet: Rams -185 moneyline
The handicap angle that should always be considered is betting on a good team coming off a bad losing streak, and the Patriots were handed an embarrassing 35-6 loss in Jacksonville. The defending AFC champions certainly have the stronger defense, ranking in the top six in scoring (17 ppg) and yards allowed (278 per game). Buffalo has one of the league’s weakest defenses by giving up 26 points and 361 yards per game. It’s not good news that New England will be without defensive stars Christian Gonzalez and Christian Barmore due to injuries.
The Patriots are still a great team, even if Drake Maye has been a terrible quarterback since the playoffs. Maye, who had one touchdown pass and six interceptions, played well last year when New England pulled off an upset in Buffalo. Josh Allen committed three of the Bills’ five turnovers last week against the Chargers. If Allen returns to his MVP form and Maye continues his trend of terrible play, this bet is in big trouble, but an injured underdog with a better defense should be worth a lot of points.
Best Bet: Patriots +7
Four more games for Sunday:
Texans -3 vs Cowboys
Bengals -2.5 vs Jaguars
Dolphins-Vikings Under 38.5
49ers -2.5 vs Broncos
Last week: 3-4 against the spread
Season: 12-9
For more NFL Week 4 best bets, visit the NFL Week 4 betting hub, exclusive to VSiN.
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