Fantasy football is all about the box score: Yards and TDs equal fantasy points, and fantasy points win your league.
But not all 5-100-1s are built the same. That’s why we use advanced analytics and film to identify talented players on the verge of delivering numbers.
Each week, I’ll bring my 22 years of experience analyzing college and NFL film to highlight when the box score doesn’t match reality, showing some players who performed better or worse than their stats.
Omar Cooper Jr., WR, New York Jets
Omar Cooper Jr.
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Omar Cooper Jr. is back. in the Jets lineup on Sunday after a four-week IR stint. His high ankle sprain didn’t seem to bother him as Cooper exploded for 103 yards and a TD, catching 6 of his 7 targets.
I watched Cooper’s film against the Patriots to see if that stat line and WR6 PPR finish was legit.
Cooper’s TD was the most explosive play of the day. The victory hinged on a great play call with Cooper bursting to reach an open zone.
The Patriots run a modified Cover-2 (with added man coverage against Garrett Wilson). Cooper’s route splits the safeties, and he hits another gear when one of them sits a little shallower than it should.
That allowed Cooper to get separation for what should have been a fairly easy deep TD pass. Instead, Geno Smith broke up the pass, forcing Cooper to turn around and make the catch through contact.
He succeeds and gets the long TD.
I put this TD down more to play design than Cooper’s talent, but a less athletic slot WR might not have created enough separation to catch the underthrown TD. This underscores the difference between Cooper and WR Isaiah Williams, who filled in while Cooper was on IR. Williams likely didn’t get to the spot long enough to turn and do so with space.
It’s the play that makes me buy into Cooper potentially sustaining this strong production.
Cooper moves, becomes the WR outside on the play. The Patriots run Cover-3, with star CB Christian Gonzalez in coverage. Gonzalez slides back into a deeper zone expecting Cooper to run further down the field. Instead, Cooper hit inside and fooled Gonzalez briefly.
That creates enough separation for Cooper to get over the middle and make a 19-yard catch against one of the best CBs in the league.
Cooper’s route running in college lacked the polish and suddenness to fool top DBs, but that appears to be improving in the NFL.
That offers a lot of hope for the future.
This is another great route from Cooper using a shuffle step to run a drag against CB Marcus Jones. Cooper got a step up on Jones on a clearing play across the left side of the field. It should have made for a big gain after the catch for Cooper … but it didn’t.
Smith put the ball behind Cooper instead of leading him on the drag, so Jones immediately tackled him.
This shows one of the shortcomings for this year. QB play may not allow Cooper to maximize his talent. Underthrows or inaccurate passes have plagued Smith for several years, and this game was no different.
Overall, Cooper matched his box score. He looked good on film and could have had a bigger day with more accurate passes.
His playing time also backed it up. Cooper played 82.3% of the snaps with an 85.7% route rate. If he stays on the field for 80+% of the snaps, he should have ample opportunity to start as a rookie and continue his growth as a player. That’s worth having on your bench to see how the Jets use Cooper going forward.
But Adonai Mitchell opened the season as the No. 2 WR and is close to returning from his finger injury. We will have to see how they fit in playing-time wise. If Mitchell sticks around this week, however, Cooper is worth a look in your fantasy lineup.
Ja’Kobi Lane, WR, Baltimore Ravens
Ja’Kobi Lane
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Ja’Kobi Lane also returned to the field Sunday from a Week 1 broken hand. The rookie has garnered buzz throughout the preseason with hopes that he could become the No. 2 WR to Zay Flowers.
Lane didn’t get Lamar Jackson at QB for this game but still showed some positive qualities despite a reduced passing approach against the Browns.
Lane runs a clean slant here for an easy completion. He held the CB to get a slight cushion before cutting the slant. Lane positioned himself well to box out the defender and make the catch.
He was swallowed up immediately after the catch, but Lane showed why he drew that early buzz. The Ravens lacked a good route runner with the soft hands to make clean catches on contact for the year.
Lane is showing he can do that.
Lane runs a route on this play with a slight pick from the slot WR to give him a step in front of the CB. Huntley, fearing the route jump, put the ball in front.
Lane tracks the ball well, extends his hands and intercepts the pass by connecting with LB Carson Schwesinger.
Jackson could have trusted himself (and Lane) more and put the ball closer to the WR. That would have helped Lane gain a few yards after the catch.
Lane’s hands and ball tracking give him the upside to be a possession WR who can consistently move the chains.
However, not everything was positive for Lane. He struggled against press man coverage, especially against CB Denzel Ward.
Lane runs a corner route on this play near the end of the half, so the Ravens try to pick up big yardage.
He gets press-man coverage from Ward in Cover 1. Huntley puts the ball in the right spot without help from the safety over the top, but Lane can’t really break free from Ward.
Ward’s physicality threw Lane off his route, and the rookie couldn’t get to where the ball was headed to try to make a sideline catch.
There is a definite positive overall in Lane’s film. He runs sharp routes without wasted movement, and his size, hands and ball tracking point to NFL-starter potential.
But there are still issues. He lacks the physical ability to beat press coverage in the NFL, and he didn’t show much after the catch in this game either. So that part remains unknown.
Lane deserves to be on your fantasy bench, but I wouldn’t rush to start him. Jackson’s return will help the offense as a whole and Lane could benefit as well, but I think there will still be a significant learning curve here.
Christian Watson, WR, Green Bay Packers
Christian Watson
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Watson was our Breakout pick of the season, and he’s come through so far. He sits as WR5 in PPR points per game, even after a WR39 finish in Week 6.
Watson caught just 3 of 6 targets for 64 yards, while teammate Matthew Golden caught 6 of 13 targets for 104 yards and a TD. I wanted to review Watson’s film to see if it really was a bad game (and if Golden could pass on Watson for the rest of the season).
Watson’s “worst” play was a drop in the end zone on a 27-yard pass. But, it’s not really that bad (until the crash).
Watson adjusts his route to the outside as Jordan Love moves from the pocket. He turns up and out of man coverage, breaking away enough for Love to hit him in the end zone.
But the receiver dropped it.
The catch would make Watson WR11 for the week and give him his fourth WR1 performance of the season.
I’m not too worried about WR drops. They happen to everyone, and until they become a consistent problem, they can generally go unnoticed. I wouldn’t lose faith in Watson as a top-12 fantasy WR moving forward.
The rest of the game showcased Watson’s strengths, both mentally and physically.
Watson runs a hook route against the Cowboys’ Cover 2, settling behind shallow zones. Love puts the ball to MLB’s right, forcing Watson to adjust and make a diving catch.
He reached for it and pulled for a 27-yard completion.
Watson runs the route with good zone reads in front of him. He held his ground as defenders began to read Love’s eyes and he closed his eyes. After the pass, Watson moves to make the catch with the defenders out of the area.
That is elite WR manipulation.
Watson also showed his ability after the catch after his route on this play. He gets a big cushion against man coverage for an easy catch over the middle.
The safety begins to close in on Watson as the pass is thrown. Watson recognized him and the angle, and moved back inside to avoid contact. He picked up an additional 8 yards after the catch thanks to breaking that tackle.
It was another good game from Watson, even if that didn’t show in the box score. He got open against every type of coverage and was an end-zone drop away from WR1 territory.