Fantasy football is all about the box score: Yards and TDs equal fantasy points, and fantasy points win your league.
But not all 5-100-1s are built the same. That’s why we use not only advanced analytics, but also film to identify talented players on the verge of delivering numbers.
Each week, I’ll bring my 2 years of experience analyzing college and NFL film to highlight when the box score doesn’t match reality, showing some players who performed better or worse than the box score indicates.
Braelon Allen, RB, New York Jets
Braelon Allen has been solid in the five games since Breece Hall’s Week 3 quad injury. He averaged 18.6 rushes for 100.8 yards and 0.4 TD per game, along with 2.6 catches for 14.0 yards.
That’s good enough for RB15 in PPR over the past five weeks. So, should the Jets give Allen more snaps and carries when Hall returns? Let’s review the movie.
The Jets are running inside the zone here, and the middle of the O-line is clogged when Allen takes the ball. He makes an impressive jump cut to hit the open hole without losing acceleration.
That move isn’t something I remember from Allen’s college or early NFL film. He will usually try to step and step to the left, often slowing down to find the right spot. That will allow the hole to fill more quickly.
Instead, Allen had 8 yards and a first down while showing improved vision and a new stride that will be useful going forward.
Allen’s power continues to grow stronger in his third season.
First, he shows a few short spots that quickly move around the blocks while continuing forward. On third downs, Allen lowers his head and carries them for extra yardage.
Allen kept his balance and got past those tackles on defense that required a third defender to stop him.
That power gives Allen a lift when he reaches second and runs against small DBs.
Allen is still developing as a receiver. Here he blocked briefly before switching to a checkdown option for Geno Smith. Allen slowed as he turned to Smith, who immediately threw it to Allen with the Raiders playing deeper in the zone.
Allen picks up the throw high but doesn’t offer much open-field ability with a lack of after-catch explosion. He gets a good catch on this play, but struggles with inconsistent speed and movement when running routes. There remains work to be done for Allen to be a consistent receiving threat out of the backfield.
Allen’s improvement as a runner could mean a bigger chunk of work going forward, but I still believe Hall is the superior and more explosive back. And his edge in the passing game remains huge.
It’s worth noting that Allen won’t turn 23 until January and missed most of last season, so he could still show more upside.
The Jets would be wise to use a two-back system and lighten the workload for Hall, especially with his quad injury. We’ll have to see, of course, if Allen can keep up enough work to make the fantasy viable, but OC Frank Reich’s history suggests this could be a RB-friendly environment.
The Jets’ 54.9% neutral pass rate ranks just 17th in the league this season. In Reich’s last five seasons — four as Indy’s head coach and one as Carolina — his offenses ranked in the top 13 in neutral run rate four times. That included three top-9 finishes and two top 6 finishes.
Expect Hall to quickly return to starting fantasy usage, while Allen will have a chance to stay relevant in deeper leagues. At the very least, he will remain a high-level handcuff.
Cam Ward, QB, Tennessee Titans
Cam Ward’s second year was a disaster. He sits at QB30 in points per game and has thrown INTs in five of his last six games.
Week 8 showed some glimmers of hope, though. Ward finished QB4, throwing for 304 yards and 2 TDs with 41 yards rushing.
But Ward’s Week 8 film was mixed, showing some positive growth along with problems he still has to overcome.
Ward shows some high level QB skills on this play.
He opens up to his left off the snap, looking for two options on that side and pulling the Bengals’ coverage shallower in that direction. He then returned to the middle of the field, set his feet, and delivered an arcing pass into the hands of Wan’Dale Robinson.
Eye manipulation combined with precision make this one of the best passes I’ve seen from Ward all season. This type of pass gives me hope for Ward’s future.
Ward performed well in run-pass options. Here he raised his eyes as he handed the ball to Tony Pollard. Seeing the LBs drop, Ward threw it to Chimere Dike for an easy TD against man coverage.
Ward’s play-action passing has been the best part of his game this year. Play action and RPOs help freeze the defense and allow Ward to make quick decisions to get to open WRs.
The Titans could help his development by running more play action.
Ward’s legs continue to be an asset as well.
The Bengals brought a four-man rush into this game, opening up a lane up the middle. Ward definitely leaves the open field and goes down before contact.
Ward has come up early at times when he feels pressure (even when he doesn’t), but that didn’t happen against the Bengals. More of these well-timed and decisive scrambles will help the offense and its fantasy value.
Ward’s biggest thorn is when the pressure comes on. He forced himself to close his eyes and release the ball before taking a sack.
It’s another four-man rush, but the Bengals get a little more push than in the previous example. Ward looked down the field and ignored the checkdown as the rush approached. Instead of staying focused on his options, he immediately lowered his eyes and began rummaging through his pocket.
Dexter Lawrence grabbed the back of Ward’s jersey, and it was over: a 13-yard sack. The panic from Ward led to this sack and killed the drive.
There are some overall positives to Ward’s game. He has developed a strong RPO game and continues to improve in how he manipulates the defense to help WRs get open. His scrambling remains a plus, too.
But Ward’s lack of presence in the pocket and his struggles against pressure have been a big problem. He’s too slow on his checkdowns and panics when the O-line breaks down, which is often the case in Tennessee.
I still have hope that Ward can turn things around and become a serviceable fantasy QB. That probably doesn’t happen this season, but it makes holding on to Ward worth it in dynasty superflex leagues.
Oronde Gadsden II, TE, Los Angeles Chargers
Gadsden showed promise as a rookie last season, finishing as TE20 in PPR points per game. The WR/TE hybrid has exceeded expectations for a fifth-round draft pick, but the Chargers aren’t ready to make him a tight end.
The team brought in Charlie Kolar and David Njoku, who moved Gadsden to just 18% of the snaps in Week 1. That jumped to 44.1% in Week 2 and into the high 50s after Kolar and Njoku went down in the same game. Overall, Gadsden played 46.9% of the offensive snaps.
Production reception has largely lagged, but Week 8 offered some promise. Gadsden came out of the bye to catch all five of his targets for 52 yards and finish 14th among PPR tight ends for the week.
Gadsden’s film shows the Chargers use him well in a short role designed to beat zone defenses.
Gadsden’s line is wide here, but he stays shallow against the Rams’ deeper zone. He runs a route and settles in front of the LBs.
This leads to a quick throw from Justin Herbert with enough space for Gadsden to spin it over the top and gain 12 yards.
The shallow role for Gadsden worked well in this game. The Rams played a deeper zone for most of the game, and Gadsden took advantage.
Here he lines up inline and runs a shallow drag route. Gadsden slows down when he makes his break horizontally, but the Rams’ defense still opens up space.
This creates another easy pass as Herbert moves to his right. Gadsden makes the catch with great technique and turns upfield for a 15-yard gain.
Once the shallow role worked for Gadsden, the Chargers continued to take advantage of it.
He also had some success against man coverage.
Gadsden’s line is wide and benefits from this slant. The read seemed predetermined, with Herbert starting to roll his eyes to the left and immediately move to throw at Gadsden.
The tight end doesn’t get separation, which will be a problem for Gadsden against CBs (Josh Wallace in this case), but he has the size to make the contested catch in this case.
If the Chargers stick with deploying Gadsden at short range more often, he could see a continued boost in target volume. Week 8 marked his second straight game with 5 targets and just the third time this season he surpassed 3.
This game wasn’t enough to make Gadsden a starter from bench fodder, but we’ll see if the role changes from here.