Welcome to Week 9 Matchups That Matter.
This article gives you a peek into the process behind our weekly projections and rankings. Below are the key metrics we use to set those numbers, so you can make sharper start/seat calls each week.
When you’re ready to set your lineup, hit the Week 9 Rankings and your Team Dashboard page for customized starting/seating advice.
Good luck on Week 9!
Maximum Game Total
t-1. Bengals vs. Falcons (52.5)
t-1. Raiders at 49ers (52.5)
3. Cowboys and Colts (51.5)
4. Lions and Dolphins (50.5)
Minimum Game Total
12. Texans at Chargers (40.5)
t-13. Jaguars at Ravens (39.5)
t-13. Cardinals at Seahawks (39.5)
15. Giants and Eagles (38.5)
Expected points
We can use the Vegas lines to calculate how many points each team is expected to score this week.
Maximum Expected Score
1. 49ers (31.25)
t-2. Leaders (28.75)
t-2. Lions (28.75)
4. Cowboys (28.5)
5. Bengals (27.75)
6. Bears (27.0)
7. Rams (26.25)
Minimum Expected Score
26. Jets (18.75)
27. Chargers (18.0)
28. Eagles (17.5)
29. Cardinals (15.5)
30. Ravens (14.75)
Expected Plays
The chart below shows how many plays we project each team will run compared to the league average for the week. More plays = more opportunities for fantasy points.
Most Anticipated Plays
1. Bears (64.3)
t-2. Saints (63.9)
t-2. Rams (63.9)
4. Bengals (63.7)
t-5. Cowboys (63.2)
t-5. Panthers (63.2)
Least Expected Play
26. Cardinals (60.8)
27. Eagles (60.5)
28. Jets (60.3)
29. Buccaneers (59.9)
30. Ravens (59.1)
Pace Matchups
The chart below shows how each game stacks up in terms of pace compared to the league average for the week. Speed is calculated by averaging the seconds per snap from both teams in each game. I use the last five weeks worth of data to get a fresher look.
Faster games usually produce more plays, which means more fantasy points.
Fastest Game (Average seconds per snap)
1. Raiders at 49ers (27.65 seconds)
2. Cardinals at Seahawks (27.75 seconds)
3. Cowboys and Colts (27.85 seconds)
4. Giants and Eagles (28.1 seconds)
5. Browns and Saints (28.2 seconds)
Slowest Games (Average seconds per snap)
11. Packers and Patriots (29.5 seconds)
12. Texans at Chargers (30.0 seconds)
13. Jaguars and Ravens (30.45 seconds)
14. Buccaneers at Bears (30.85 seconds)
15. Vikings charges (31.05 seconds)
Time Concerns
Back on Sunday morning.
quarterback
Pass Defense Power Rankings
Here’s a look at how each team fared in pass defense DVOA, Pro Football Focus coverage grade, PFF pass rush grade, and EPA allowed per pass through 8 weeks. Teams are ranked by “Pass Defense Power,” which is the average of those 4 metrics.
Week 9 Passing Matchups
This chart plots each team’s Pass Offense Power versus their opponent’s Pass Defense Power. The teams in the lower right quadrant are in the smash spot.
Matchup Upgrades and Downgrades Adjusted-Fantasy-Points Upgrades and Downgrades
The best and worst Week 9 matchups according to our 2026 adjusted fantasy points allowed.
5 Best QB Matchups
1. Malik Willis vs. Lions (+43.7%)
2. Drew Lock vs. Cardinals (+38.4%)
3. Matthew Stafford and Commanders (+36.8%)
4. Daniel Jones vs. Cowboys (+27.4%)
5. Baker Mayfield and Bears (+23.5%)
5 Worst QB Matchups
26. Drake Maye vs. Packers (-21.1%)
27. CJ Stroud and Chargers (-29.4%)
28. Caleb Williams vs. Buccaneers (-34.1%)
29. Gardner Minshew and Seahawks (-40.1%)
30. Josh Allen and Vikings (-52.8%)
Running Back
Run the Defense Power Rankings
Here’s a look at how each team fared in run defense DVOA, Pro Football Focus run defense grade, and EPA allowed per rush through 8 weeks. Teams are ranked by “Run Defense Power,” which is an average of those 3 metrics.
Week 9 Rushing Matchups
This chart depicts each team’s Run Offense Power compared to their opponent’s Run Defense Power. The teams in the lower right quadrant are in the smash spot.
Matchup Upgrades and Downgrades Adjusted-Fantasy-Points Upgrades and Downgrades
The best and worst Week 9 matchups according to our 2026 adjusted fantasy points allowed.
5 Best RB Matchups
1. Colts vs. Cowboys (+39.2%)
2. Browns and Saints (+33.5%)
3. Broncos at Panthers (+21.8%)
4. Lions and Dolphins (+21.4%)
5. Vikings vs. Bills (+20.0%)
5 Worst RB Matchups
26. Seahawks vs. Cardinals (-15.9%)
27. Ravens vs. Jaguars (-16.0%)
28. Packers and Patriots (-18.8%)
29. Vikings charges (-21.7%)
30. Bears vs. Buccaneers (-24.8%)
Wide Receiver
Matchup Upgrades and Downgrades Adjusted-Fantasy-Points Upgrades and Downgrades
The best and worst Week 9 matchups according to our 2026 adjusted fantasy points allowed.
5 Best WR Matchups
1. Dolphins vs. Lions (+21.4%)
2. Vikings vs. Bills (+21.3%)
3. Chargers vs. Texans (+19.4%)
4. Ravens vs. Jaguars (+17.8%)
5. Colts vs. Cowboys (+14.5%)
5 Worst WR Matchups
26. Cowboys and Colts (-13.8%)
27. Lions and Dolphins (-20.2%)
28. Cardinals at Seahawks (-20.9%)
29. Bears vs. Buccaneers (-21.2%)
30. Vikings charges (-23.3%)
WR/CB Matchup Upgrade
Rams WR Puka Nacua vs. Commanders CBs Rasul Douglas, Trey Amos, and Amik Robertson
Lions WRs Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams vs. Dolphins CBs Chris Johnson, Jason Marshall, and Julius Brents
Broncos WRs Jaylen Waddle and Courtland Sutton vs. Panthers CBs Will Lee and Chau Smith-Wade
Browns WRs Denzel Boston and KC Concepcion vs. Saints CBs Kool-Aid McKinstry, Quincy Riley, and Jonas Sanker
Jets WR Omar Cooper against Chiefs CB Christian Roland-Wallace
Dolphins WR Malik Washington against Lions CB Roger McCreary
Cowboys WR Ryan Flournoy against Colts CB Justin Wally
WR/CB Matchup Downgrades
Falcons WR Drake London vs. Bengals CB DJ Turner (questionable, heel)
Cardinals WR Michael Wilson vs. Seahawks CBs Devon Witherspoon, Josh Jobe, and Nick Emmanwori
Bills WRs DJ Moore, Khalil Shakir, and Keon Coleman vs. Vikings CBs Isaiah Rodgers, Byron Murphy, and James Pierre
Panthers WRs Tetairoa McMillan and Jalen Coker vs. Broncos CBs Pat Surtain, Ja’Quan McMillian, and Riley Moss
Raiders WR Tre Tucker against 49ers Deommodore Lenoir and Renardo Green
Tight End
Matchup Upgrades and Downgrades Adjusted-Fantasy-Points Upgrades and Downgrades
The best and worst Week 9 matchups according to our 2026 adjusted fantasy points allowed.
5 Best TE Matchups
1. Rams and Commanders (+97.7%)
2. Dolphins vs. Lions (+88.5%)
3. Jets and Chiefs (+69.9%)
4. Falcons vs. Bengals (+52.7%)
5. 49ers vs. Raiders (+36.4%)
5 Worst TE Matchups
26. Cardinals at Seahawks (-30.8%)
27. Patriots vs. Packers (-32.1%)
28. Commanders vs. Rams (-37.4%)
29. Vikings charges (-42.7%)
30. Texans at Chargers (-43.1%)
Defense/Special Teams
Matchup Upgrades and Downgrades Adjusted-Fantasy-Points Upgrades and Downgrades
The best and worst Week 9 matchups according to our 2026 adjusted fantasy points allowed.
5 Best DST Matchups
1. Texans over Chargers (+116.1%)
2. Eagles vs. Giants (+74.3%)
3. Bengals at Falcons (+47.2%)
4. Cardinals at Seahawks (+44.0%)
5. Saints vs. Browns (+37.6%)
5 Worst DST Matchups
26. Vikings vs. Bills (-52.4%)
27. 49ers vs. Raiders (-54.9%)
28. Ravens vs. Jaguars (-55.5%)
29. Colts vs. Cowboys (-55.6%)
30. Dolphins vs. Lions (-57.2%)
Kicker
Matchup Upgrades and Downgrades Adjusted-Fantasy-Points Upgrades and Downgrades
The best and worst Week 9 matchups according to our 2026 adjusted fantasy points allowed.
5 Best K Matchups
1. Brandon McManus on Commanders (+31.6%)
2. Matt Gay of the 49ers (+31.1%)
3. Drew Stevens vs. Rams (+28.3%)
4. Dominic Zvada and Eagles (+25.0%)
5. Brandon Aubrey of the Colts (+24.3%)
5 Worst K Matchups
26. Tyler Bass on Vikings (-23.4%)
27. Jake Moody vs. Jaguars (-34.0%)
28. Chase McLaughlin and Bears (-40.9%)
29. Andres Borregales vs. Packers (-44.3%)
30. Zane Gonzalez vs. Lions (-51.1%)