College Basketball Picks
We have more options on the college hoops card for Thursday, as there are 43 Division I vs. Division I game on the docket. One thing I want people with disabilities to remember is that college basketball is similar to what we see in college football. Those FBS teams that lose in dramatic fashion to FCS schools get dumped by bettors and often have some spread value on them going forward. Similarly, teams involved in big hoops losses, especially to a lower division opponent, can play the same way. Sure, they can also be really bad, but more often than not, it’s just an off night and a team will play closer to its level going forward. Some food for thought while thinking about today’s action.
Handicapping early-season college basketball is a big challenge because there are so many new faces and moving parts, but it’s also a market that provides plenty of opportunity for those who are prepared. That’s one reason why our 2026-27 College Basketball Betting Guide is so important. Another reason why Steve Makinen’s College Basketball Daily Matchup Ratings will be useful.
As always, I want to give a shout-out to Bart Torvik (BartTorvik.com), Erik Haslam (Haslametrics.com), and KenPom, because they provide a lot of great data.
This article will run Monday-Saturday. The lines will come from DraftKings, as they are widely available to readers. Shop around for the best prices.
Check out the latest college basketball odds for legal US sportsbooks nationwide and our Vegas odds if you share a state with us here at VSiN. Also, give college basketball betting splits (DraftKings) and Circa CBB Betting Splits a look for these or any other college basketball games today that have your interest.
Odds from Circa Sportsbook or DraftKings Sportsbook (most Extra Games) at time of publication.
Mercer at Virginia Tech (-20.5, 155)
7 pm ET
Pick: Mercer +20.5
Both teams opened the season in great fashion, as Mercer knocked off lower-division Reinhardt and Virginia Tech beat Coppin State, which could be a lower-division team. The Eagles are Division I in name only, as they haven’t won more than nine games since 2019-20. While they don’t run like they used to under Juan Dixon, they often play faster than the average team, but Virginia Tech held them down on 72 possessions in a game that featured 38 turnovers.
The Hokies moved a little faster last season under Mike Young than they have in previous seasons, but I don’t know if that will hold. This is a team that loves to shoot 3s and will take time to find the perfect shot. They didn’t play much in transition and really slowed down opponents from bringing the ball up the court. In other words, 20.5 points is pretty big in a game that’s probably in the 70-72 possession range.
That’s because Mercer runs the floor under Ryan Ridder. He is 34-32 in two seasons and one game with the Bears and this group is moving faster than former head coach Greg Gary. He also injected some offensive life into the team, which will be important in the SoCon. Ridder’s team was 271st in eFG% and 319th in adjusted offensive efficiency in Year 1. In Year 2, his team improved nearly 8% at the free throw line and was 97th in eFG% and 131st in adjusted offensive efficiency.
It was obviously against a smaller opponent, and nobody played more than 24 minutes, but Mercer dropped 90 on Reinhardt while going just 10-of-35 on 3s. This is a team that has improved rapidly in Year 2, especially on the glass and in terms of getting to the free throw line. I think Ridder is a really good coach and he has some solid talent here, including some homegrown kids, including 6-foot-10 Maine transfer Keelan Steele, who shot 60% on 2s last season for the Black Bears.
Often these mid- and low-majors end up losing heavily to the physical end of the high majors. Virginia Tech isn’t a very tall team and 6-foot-8 Amari Hansberry doesn’t post up often, as the Hokies prefer to play on the perimeter. Unless they go lights out, I don’t see the Hokies covering this big number.
Northern Illinois at Tulsa (-15, 154)
8 pm ET
Choose: Over 154
Eric Konkol did one of the best coaching jobs in the country last season, as Tulsa went from 13 wins to 30 wins, losing in overtime in the NIT Championship Game to Auburn. Konkol’s staff is 12-6 in games decided by six points or fewer, largely due to their shot selection and ability to make 3s. The Golden Hurricane shot 46.7% of their shots from deep and shot 38.5%, which was 10th in the nation.
Unfortunately, many of those shooters went missing for Tulsa, but that won’t stop them from letting it rip. In the season opener against the Ottawa (KS) University Braves, Tulsa hit 40 3s in a game played on 70 possessions. No one played more than 20 minutes, as Konkol wanted to check the roster in what was usually a controlled scrimmage, but several guys did well, as the team had 1.403 points per possession.
Northern Illinois was certainly better than Ottawa University, but the Huskies struggled to stop Grambling in the Field of 68 Marathon. They only lost by deuce in the 3 am ET game, but Grambling was 21-of-26 on Close Twos and 27-of-37 on 2s overall. NIU outscored Grambling 42-15 in 3s and still lost the game.
But, what stands out is that the Huskies took more 3s (31) than 2s (29) and actually had a strong offense with 1.277 points per possession. Unfortunately, they gave 1.307. But, I believe Matt Majkrzak is a huge upgrade for the program after failing to have a winning season under Rashon Burno. Those teams are terrible on both ends of the floor, but especially terrible on offense.
It may be a work in progress defensively here, but the offense and the improved shot selection should really help DeKalb. Konkol’s 2025-26 team is 11th in Far 2 Shot Share per Torvik, which is impressive. This means they are either shooting 3s or going to the edge, two things that are favorable in an Over.
East Texas A&M at Rice (-3.5, 145.5)
8 pm ET
Choose: Rice -3.5
The biggest upset of the season today was East Texas A&M, as the Lions beat Oklahoma in Norman by a 68-64 count. It was a truly incredible win for Jaret von Rosenberg’s team. In his four seasons with the program, he has never won more than 13 games and did so in Years 1 and 2. His team only won 11 games last season. But, as we know, in today’s landscape, it’s not that difficult to turn things around quickly.
Here’s the thing, though. The Lions shot 40.7% from 3 against the Sooners in that game. JVR’s offense hasn’t been great during his tenure, finishing 338th, 264th, and 284th in eFG% offense over the last three seasons. They also turned the ball over a ton, something they did against Oklahoma. Honestly, the Sooners have nobody to blame but themselves. They came up short against an overmatched opponent and paid the price. They were also just 17-of-32 from the free throw line and 8-of-27 from the floor in the first half before going 13-of-25 in the second half, good for a 58% eFG%.
Rice can’t overlook the Lions based on that data point. Rob Lanier has one of the toughest jobs in the country because it’s a school with strict academic requirements and not a ton of money to go around. However, two starters return and Jacob Dar returns after one season at Seton Hall.
We didn’t know much against Dallas Christian in a 45-point win for the Owls, even though that game was played on 83 possessions, which is an extreme number, especially in a blowout. Maybe just an opponent, but Rice also took 43 3-pointers. They took 46 in the finale against UTSA, but the most they had before that final season was 34. It looked like Lanier, right from the start, would speed up the game and take more 3s, making Rice a more diverse team, but way more compelling.
We’ll see if it holds up, but maximizing possessions and picking shots against a team that has historically been weak on offense seems to me to be a good plan of attack. And maybe the Lions won, but this line opened more like 6 and the Oklahoma win penetrated the market, maybe a little too much.