Is there anyone else here? We had fewer upsets last week, but sledding in the Survivor pool was still tough. The Cardinals win over the Cowboys was the big surprise, although we’re getting to the point where I expect most people to stay away from Dallas in this type of pool. The Broncos surprised the Chiefs late and the Bucs rolled over the Falcons at home, but neither of them played much of an impact in the Survivor pools.
I’m back with my Week 9 Survivor picks ahead of Jaguars-Ravens Thursday Night Football. Survivor involves picking a team each week to win. If you win, if you lose, in most cases, you’re out. I’m in a pool with four entries, but it’s also a double-elimination pool. Three of my entries lost, including last week’s Texans. I’m down to one entry that already has one strike, so we’re coming down to the wire.
Below I have a look at the safest picks, best value picks, and then trap picks. I’ll post my own picks at the end. I’ll update on Sunday once I’ve locked in my three picks for the weekend.
I’ve included odds for the favorite in each game, courtesy of FanDuel.
49ers (-9.5) at Raiders
Jaguars (-10.5) over Ravens
Chiefs (-9.5) at Jets
The 49ers are bye and getting healthy. Given the struggles of the Raiders’ defense, the 49ers’ offense should be able to do some serious damage at home.
Jaguars-Ravens is a Thursday game, and many people may prefer to skip that because the short week could lead to some wild games. However, the Ravens are on their third string QB and are trading for Jacoby Brissett after this game. They are in serious trouble.
I know the Chiefs lose and the Jets hang with the Raiders, but I don’t see any way this is close.
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Bears (-6.5) over the Buccaneers
Seahawks (-8.5) at Cardinals
The Bucs got their QB back and got a critical win in the rain against the Falcons last week. And yet, the Bears are rolling now. Jeffery Simmons is a big addition to that defense and Caleb Williams is playing solid ball.
Divisional games are generally best avoided, but the Cardinals have effectively called it quits for the season. They placed running back Jeremiah Love on IR and are expected to trade Jacoby Brissett to the Ravens in the next few days. Gardner Minshew can be dangerous at times, but I don’t think he can do it against the Seahawks defense. Drew Lock is starting in place of an injured Sam Darnold, but that’s not a downgrade of how Darnold has played this season.
Lions (-7) over dolphins
Seahawks (-8.5) at Cardinals
I think the Lions handled their business against the Dolphins, but traveling to Miami and coming off an emotional win over the Vikings, it’s a tough spot for them.
If you think Lock is a downgrade and Minshew Magic is something, I can see why this could be a trap game. It still has value, but it’s a tough call.
I’m rolling with the Bears this week. I could use the Jaguars or Seahawks, but I’ll save those two for now.