Arch Manning is the headliner every time Texas plays, but the top-ranked Longhorns can’t stop No. 14 Tennessee, 20-17, without edge rusher Colin Simmons’ historic performance.
Manning, the presumed favorite to be No. 1 pick in the 2027 NFL Draft, struggled with inconsistent performances against the Vols’ defense. He finished 14-for-19 passing for 201 yards but was also sacked six times and threw an interception on a deep ball in double coverage.
Meanwhile, Simmons set an SEC single-game record with five sacks (accounting for 52 yards), as he continued to pressure Tennessee QB Faizon Brandon in the Longhorns’ win. The true junior finished with eight total tackles. He was dominant, despite offsetting one of his sacks – a 13-yard loss in the second quarter – with an inexplicable unsportsmanlike conduct penalty for “simulating using the restroom,” as SEC referee Kyle Olson explained.
However, the performance will undoubtedly boost Simmons’ NFL Draft stock. But what does this mean for Manning?
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Dan Brugler
Does Manning show any improvement?
“I didn’t play much.”
Those were Arch’s words to ESPN after the game. And there’s no way around it — Manning’s body of work in September was nothing like a No. 1 pick candidate. Like last year, maybe he’ll continue to improve as the season plays out and change the narrative. But Manning hasn’t been good this season, particularly in his pre- and post-snap reads.
Against Tennessee, he showed great early rhythm and made some NFL-level throws. But after starting 7-for-7 passing for 120 yards, he didn’t play with the same conviction over the final three quarters. I’m eager to review the film and get a better idea of what Manning is seeing, but he often doesn’t process things quickly enough within his read progression. He lingers on reads, which disrupts his timing and leads to negative plays.
Results are more important than process when it comes to the College Football Playoffs, and Texas has nothing to apologize for Saturday — live and move forward. But NFL evaluators care more about the process. It’s still very early, and a lot can change in the next three months. Through four games, however, Manning looks more like a player who might return to school for a fifth season instead of getting the No. 1 overall in April. — Dane Brugler, national NFL Draft expert
This is always the process. And, frankly, Manning has had issues, so it goes hand in hand. It’s like we’re watching a prospect that’s a bit stagnant. Manning isn’t showing a ton of marked improvement or regression from week to week; he is generally the same.
Again on Saturday, Manning was caught forcing a ball down in coverage when there was no reason for it. We’ve seen him spray the ball again with relatively easy throws this season. All of those miscues stem from inconsistent footwork/weight transfer in his delivery, usually. It’s young QB stuff.
That said, I don’t think Manning performed well. We see money thrown from him almost every game he plays in Texas, but he’s not a baby anymore. If we continue to view Manning as a potential No. 1 pick for 2027, we need to start seeing bigger jumps. Manning’s talent is undeniable, and it will take NFL teams — regardless of how Texas’ QB performs the rest of the way — to convince themselves that Manning’s talent outweighs his hiccups.
That’s probably fair, to some degree. But Manning needs to be better. — Nick Baumgardner, NFL Draft senior writer
Is Simmons a potential top-five pick?
Let’s be honest, a freshman quarterback who handled the ball and ran into sacks helped boost Simmons’ totals. Regardless of the context, though, it’s still dominant for the Longhorns’ pass rusher.
Texas defensive coordinator Will Muschamp is good at weaponizing Simmons by scouting him off the ball, dropping him in the flat or rushing him from inside the alignment. Then when he’s allowed to rush the rim, Simmons shows off his talent with his arc acceleration and slippery hands to break free.
If I had to bet right now, Notre Dame’s Leonard Moore would be the first defensive player drafted in April. But we know NFL teams value the pass rush, and Simmons (ranked No. 7 in my preseason top 50) certainly has a case to take that spot. While South Carolina edge Dylan Stewart is the more athletically talented, Simmons is the better pass rusher and overall defender right now – which will endear him to NFL defensive coordinators. — Brugler
I had Simmons as a top-five prospect this summer, behind only Dylan Stewart at his position — and the only reason for that was Stewart’s size. If Simmons were a bit bigger, he would be in the discussion to be the top prospect overall.
He’s the most polished pass rusher in this class, and if that’s the case, that’s enough to earn him a high draft grade. But he also plays hard and affects the run game. He has real game breaking potential. — Baumgardner